Rick Porcello (SP-BOS). A day after inking a four-year extension with the team, Porcello made his debut in a Red Sox uniform Wednesday night in Philadelphia. After starting with 5 shutout innings, the wheels came off a little bit for Porcello in the 6th, as he gave up a walk, a single and a 3 run jack to Jeff Francouer, of all people, and wound up taking the loss in a 4-2 Red Sox defeat. This game was a microcosm of my concerns that owners drafting Porcello expecting a repeat of 2014's performance will be doomed to disappointment. Several of Porcello's indicators from 2014 point to him being unlikely to repeat his 3.43 ERA. His 49.0% GB rate, while great for most pitchers, was 3% below Porcello's career rate, while his 9.5% HR/FB rate was almost 2% below his career rate. If Porcello is not able to get back to something closer to his career rates in these categories, his ERA will likely increase to at least his 3.68 xFIP in 2014, if not higher, given the move to a less favorable ballpark.
Carlos Carrasco (SP-CLE). Carrasco picked up 2015 where he left off in 2014, shutting out the Astros for 6.1 innings, striking out 10 while allowing only 3 hits and 1 walk. While it was the Astros, this outing provides at least initial confirmation that the improvements Carrasco made in 2014 were for real. Carrasco posted elite numbers in 2014 in the three categories that are most indicative of pitching success: a 52.8% GB rate, a 26.5% K rate and a 5.5% BB rate. While Carrasco probably won't be able to maintain his K rate at quite the same level, given that it was likely inflated by the time he spent as a reliever, all other signs point to Carrasco's breakout being for real. I would expect Carrasco to maintain an ERA below 3.00 while striking out a little over 9 per 9, while accumulating a decent number of wins pitching in front of what should be an improved Indian offense.
Jake Odorizzi (SP-TB). Odorizzi was dominant against the Orioles on Wednesday night, tossing 6.2 scoreless innings, while striking out 7 and allowing only 2 hits (and no walks). Odorizzi's peripherals from 2014 indicated that he should have obtained better results than his 4.03 ERA (his FIP was 3.75) and his outstanding 24.2% K rate also hinted at better things to come. If his first start was any indication, it looks like Odorizzi is going to build on these positive indicators from 2014. The no walks is particularly encouraging, as Odorizzi had a less than stellar 8.2% BB rate last year. If Odorizzi can maintain improved control, and somehow induce a few more groundballs (his GB rate in 2014 wsa 29.9%) he could have a true breakout season. However, his floor is probably a 3.75 ERA with close to a strikeout per inning, so even worst case he should bring positive value to fantasy pitching staffs.
Anibal Sanchez (SP-DET). Sanchez was outstanding against the Twins on Wednesday afternoon, twirling 6.2 shutout innings. Sanchez gave up only 3 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6. It was a strong start to the season for Sanchez, who is coming off of an injury-plagued 2014. Don't expect a return to 2013 for Sanchez, as he has lost velocity on his fastball and is unlikely to match his 2.57 ERA from that season. However, Sanchez should still provide solid value as a mid-rotation starter in 2015, as, even with the velocity drop, he was able to manage a 2.71 FIP and a 19.8% K rate. Our software projects Sanchez for a 3.27 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 155 Ks in 183 IP. Not ace numbers by any stretch of the imagination, but those who drafted Sanchez somewhere around his current 15th round ADP can be confident he will return value commensurate with that draft slot.
Ricky Nolasco (SP-MIN). Nolasco got the start against the Tigers Wednesday afternoon, and the results were predictable, as he was unable to make it out of the 4th inning. Nolasco's final line: 3 IP, 6 ER, 6 hits, 4 walks and only two strikeouts. If you're reading this, you probably already know to stay away from Nolasco, but it bears repeating: Nolasco has NO PLACE on your fantasy team, no matter how deep a league you are in (even if it's an all-Ricky league). All you need to know is that Nolasco's FIP in 2014 was 4.30, so even if his ERA regressed from its 2014 mark of 5.38, Nolasco would still be below replacement level. If for some reason Nolasco wound up as a part of your fantasy team, say adios immediately. Even a 7th inning reliever is likely to return more value for you in 2015.
Anthony Gose (OF-DET). Gose led off for the Tigers on Wednesday, and proceeded to go 3 for 6 with a 2B, 3B and 3 RBI in the Tigers' 11-0 shellacking of the Twinkies. It is unclear how much playing time Gose is going to receive in 2015 (he sat against a RHP on Opening Day), but if he keeps hitting like this, he should get the lion's share of the playing time in CF (although Rajai Davis will almost certainly continue to start against LHP). Keep an eye on the playing time, as if Gose is going to function as the LH side of a platoon, his speed will give him value in AL-only and deeper mixed leagues. If you are considering adding Gose, though, keep in mind that there is almost no way he is going to hit above .250, as his career strikeout rate is close to 30%. However, depending on the source, Gose is projected to steal somewhere between 27 to 34 bases in 2015, and that makes him worth an add if you can offset the potential BA hit with a high-average player somewhere else.
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