Chris Davis (1B- Baltimore)
Chris Davis had his first 2 hits of the new season in the Orioles 12-5 loss to Toronto. Davis had what we term a very unlucky season last year. He had a BABIP of .242 that was almost 100 points lower than in 2013. The culprit was Singles % of .196 that was 50-75 points less than his typical production which destroyed his BA and subsequent RBI and RS count. To make matters worse, his HR totals dropped from 53 HR to just 26 despite having a HR/FB ratio of 24%. Davis happened to hit 65 fewer fly balls than in 2013 so you get the idea of what that cost him in terms of power production. I think we can expect a rather dramatic rebound from Davis this season. I don't expect him to reach the lofty plateau that he did in 2013, but he certainly should bring that anemic .196 BA back up to the .240 range and 30+ HR's seems very reasonable.
Chris Davis makes a good DraftKings play at $4900 against Aaron Sanchez on Saturday. Sanchez is starting for the first time in the Majors as he was a reliever for Toronto last season. In 2013, as a starter in the Minors, he had a very high 1.05 HR/9 inning rate.
Avisail Garcia (OF- CWS)
Avisail Garcia went 0-2 in today's shutout loss to the Twins. Garcia has a ton of upside if he can stay healthy, and it was encouraging to see him come back from injury and produce in the 2nd half of last season. While he clearly has the look of a HR hitter written all over his 6-4 240 frame, his 67% contact rate really leaves his BA at risk. The only saving grace is his heavy GB/FB ratio of almost 2 to 1. With his superior bat speed of almost 107 mph, he's going to drive the ball out of any park. Garcia could reach the 30 HR plateau as soon as this season.
Garcia makes from a good DraftKings play at $4300. He will face Mike Pelfrey in Saturday's game. Pelfrey started only 3 times last season and has a 5.56 ERA in his last 34 starts.
Taijuan Walker (SP, Seattle)
After a brilliant Spring Training campaign which saw him hurl 12 shutout innings, Taijuan Walker had a nightmare start to the 2015 season. He gave up 8 runs on 9 hits in 3.1 innings to take the loss against Oakland. Only 22, Walker holds immense promise, but like any young player he will be subject to the trials and tribulations of adjusting to MLB hitters. Walker has a crisp 94 mph fastball with good command, a tantalizing curveball, and a functional change. His 9.6% Swinging Strike rate is good but there is even more upside there. His Achilles heel has been control and he walked over 4 batters per 9 innings last season. Unfortunately, Walker has only 56 innings of Major League experience, so the sample size leaves us with a lot of questions about when he will emerge as a force for the Mariners. What isn't in question is the potential for the Mariners to have another exceptional front line starter as soon as this season.
Nathan Eovaldi (SP- Yankees)
Nathan Eovaldi pitched 5.1 innings today giving up 8 hits and 3 ER to the Red Sox in a no decision effort. Eovaldi traded to the Yankees in the off-season, has one of the top average fastballs in MLB at 95.7 mph. Unfortunately, it's not the plus pitch it could be for him because he rarely uses his change-up and for good reason since it is not very good. His .323 BABIP was on the unlucky side last season, but his HR/FB of only 6.6% was very fortunate since he often pitches to contact. Eovaldi also appears to struggle in key situations, but he did have a very low 66% Strand Rate. A mixed bag in many areas, Eovaldi is still worth keeping an eye on because he is just 25 years old and if he can learn how to make more effective use of the change, to go with his league average curve, his development could be quick and spectacular.
Colin McHugh (SP- Houston)
Colin McHugh pitched an excellent game on Friday picking up the win in a 6 inning effort that saw him give up 1 ER on 5 hits and 2 walks while striking out 4. McHugh surprised everyone last season when he posted a 2.73 ERA, struck out more than a batter an inning, and won 11 games for the Astros. His 1.02 WHIP was better than he had ever done as a Minor Leaguer where he averaged a 1.31 WHIP in the Mets and Rockies Farm systems. McHugh was an 18th round draft pick in 2008. At 27, perhaps he came of age last season, but there are still some underlying peripherals that point to regression this year. There is little chance that his .259 BABIP can be sustained and his 76% strand rate is also elevated. So at a minimum, we should an upward adjustment in his ERA and WHIP this season. McHugh does get high marks for producing a 10.8% Swinging Strike rate that borders on elite. With a fastball just above 91 mph, no one would call him a power pitcher. Yet his two seam fastball, slider, and curve were plus pitches last season and he used his off-speed offerings effectively which accounted for the high K rate. I'd like to see him repeat his magical season again before I am ready to go all in, but McHugh could continue to surprise but just not at the level of last season.
Stevietheshu
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