Howie Kendrick is one of the few current players in MLB who has at least 100 plate appearances at every single spot in the batting order over the span of his career. Beyond that, he is also one of the very few active players that has been given at least 20 starts at each of the nine batting positions.
Kendrick offers a 'real life example' of the subject for this column ... the importance of batting order positioning when it comes to fantasy baseball success.
The overall argument comes down to this ... more plate appearances equal a greater opportunity at totaling the numbers we all care about. Studies have shown that the difference between batting lead-off versus batting 9th (over the course of 162 games) is nearly 150 plate appearances. With each drop in the lineup, a hitter loses one-tenth of a plate appearance per game. It doesn't sound like much, but here's perspective ... going from the 3-hole to the 5-spot in the order would be an average loss of more than 32 plate appearances.
Here's a look at Kendrick ...
• Batting 1st - 4.37 PAs/game
• Batting 2nd - 4.48 PAs/game
• Batting 3rd - 4.21 PAs/game
• Batting 4th - 4.06 PAs/game
• Batting 5th - 4.18 PAs/game
• Batting 6th - 4.06 PAs/game
• Batting 7th - 4.02 PAs/game
• Batting 8th - 3.74 PAs/game
• Batting 9th - 2.64 PAs/game (Note: Kendrick's mark here is thrown off by 17 pinch-hitting appearances)
Coming into a new season, the 2nd-baseman has a new home with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Take a look at their position players. If you play it out, Kendrick has an opportunity to either bat 6th or 2nd. The difference in those two spots (based off of Kendrick's own career PA numbers) would be almost 70 plate appearances. That's 70 fewer chances to get on base and score. That's 70 fewer chances to have a more profound effect on the ratio category of batting average (perhaps the top asset in Kendrick's consistent game). Simply put, it's 70 fewer opportunities to do everything!
Kendrick's fantasy worth on draft day should get a bit of a surge if the Dodgers go with him at #2. If they stick with him at #6, he stays level as a 2B outside the top 10.
In the early days of Spring Training, we're all excited to hunt through the box scores of the daily action in Arizona and Florida. Although a great deal of those eyeballs look at homers and hits, you MUST make time for following the lineups. Here are a half-dozen situations to follow over the next four weeks of action.
• San Diego Padres - There's a ton going on here. The biggest issue is the placement of Will Myers. Barring the 3B job going to Yangervis Solarte, Myers is set to be the Friars' lead-off man. Behind him, there's also plenty of debate on whether the team is helped more with Matt Kemp hitting 3rd and Justin Upton hitting 4th or vice-versa. The expectation here is that Upton follows Kemp.
• Detroit Tigers - The Motor City Cats are crossing their fingers that both Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez are cleared and set for Opening Day. If they aren't, this whole lineup gets tossed up into the air. Even if they are both out there in the first week of April, who is manager Brad Ausmus, going to pencil in at the number-2 spot? There's literally no one to replace the departed Torii Hunter, who totally resurrected his career in 2013-2014 by owning the position in the order. Candidates include Jose Iglesias, Alex Avila, Anthony Gose, and Rajai Davis. You should be interested in anyone who hits in the midst of Kinsler, Miggy, V-Mart, and Yoenis Cespedes.
• Kansas City Royals - It's still hard to believe that the perennial punching bag was one win away from being a World Champ. One huge push to their late run was the placement of Alcides Escobar at the top of the lineup. It happened on September 13th. From that point until the end of Game 7 in the World Series, Escobar hit .333 (49-for-129) with 27 runs scored as the Royals won 20 of 30 games. He's going to stay in this spot and it's one reason that Escobar is going under-drafted, right now, at a shortstop position with mostly-awful options.
• San Francisco Giants - I might as well follow one league champion with another. And, interestingly, the connection continues as it's time to talk about ex-Royal, current-Giant Nori Aoki. He was a huge disappointment in 2014. Arriving in San Francisco, he's locked into a preseason battle with hold-over, Gregor Blanco. Aoki is the favorite. Even as a left-handed batter, his career OPS vs. LHPs is higher than against RHPs (.776 to .726). In other words, you can be comfortable with him at the top of your order. If that is where the Giants go, Aoki becomes an overlooked lead-off man who you can snag as an excellent bench round grab.
There's still more going on with the San Francisco starting nine, as some dreadful news popped up Thursday night. Hunter Pence will miss at least the first month of the season (and, perhaps, even more) with a fractured forearm. That will cause some definite shuffling all over the Giants' order. Manager Bruce Bochy could just start Aoki in RF and give Blanco the LF job. But, such a decision would not help the offense very much. Another option is for Bochy to move Brandon Belt to RF, give Buster Posey the start at 1B, and turn to heralded rookie catcher, Andrew Susac, in Posey's place behind the dish. Susac is ready for a shot after a solid year at AAA-Fresno (.268/.379/.451). The silver lining in Pence going down is that San Francisco has an entire month to figure out what they want to do in-house or if they'd rather choose to go outside the organization.
• Texas Rangers - Last season, Leonys Martin, literally hit everywhere in the Ranger lineup. Check it out ... 39 starts at the 8-spot; 37 up a notch, at 7; 35 starts as a lead-off man; and, even double-digit starts where he hit 5th or 6th. When he was located at the top of the lineup, he managed 4.1 plate appearances. At #8? How about 3.4? It's a huge alteration for all of his numbers. Martin's spot for '15 is riding on whomever the Rangers settle on in LF. That could dictate where Martin is hitting for most of the season and it will also help to lock in his actual fantasy value.
• Chicago Cubs - A massive spring from Kris Bryant would actually throw a wrench into the Cubs' current plans. Would he go directly into the clean-up spot or do you deflect some attention and drop him lower in the order? Let's admit, though, that such a decision may not come until May. Until then, the North Siders are ready to shine a spotlight on Jorge Soler. Such a decision would certainly lift his fortunes in the fantasy game. Let's be honest, opposing teams would rather give a free pass to Anthony Rizzo and take their best up against the young outfielder. There would be all sorts of opportunities for the 23-year old. This is rare. How many guys with under 100 plate appearances are handed the 4th spot in the order? Soler was the best of all the Chicago rookies a season ago (a .573 SLG in just 89 at-bats) and a gig in the heart of their lineup would lead to a mandatory lift in his value on draft day.
One last thing to tack on here. Following the lineups is especially critical for those who play DFS. You'll never stand a chance of pulling off the victory if you by-pass the under-valued, number 2 hitter who is a late addition to the lineup. In fact, the ones who win most consistently are the ones who follow the release of lineups each and every evening before first pitch.
You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.
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