Preseason Prep - March 4th

James Paxton (SEA-SP) - One of my favorite sleepers from last season was James Paxton. Paxton is a hard throwing lefty with the potential to be a top of the rotation pitcher. However, he is a risky fantasy pick as Paxton is prone to injury. In two of his first four seasons as a professional baseball player, Paxton failed to reach 20 games started. If you can afford to take the risk then Paxton could have a high payoff. In Paxton's first major league season, he accumulated some impressive stats. Over the course of 74 innings pitched, he maintained a 3.04 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Additionally, he had great success keeping the ball on the ground. His 2.95 GB/FB ratio and 0.4 HR/9 were a sign of great things to come. Don't count on Paxton to be a high strikeout pitcher. Even though Paxton has an overpowering mid 90s fastball and an above average slider, his strikeout total for a season has never exceeded 152. If he can rack up some innings he might be a great pick, but don't count on his health.

Jarred Cosart (MIA-SP) - Being traded to the Marlins is certainly going to help Jarred Cosart's future. In his 10 starts for the Marlins, Cosart recorded eight quality starts. During this time Cosart saw a noticeable dip in his ERA from 4.41 to 3.69. Much of this success was due to a 2.31 GB/FB and a 0.5 HR/9. As long as Cosart can throw his 93.6 mph average fastball for strikes, his ERA should continue to decline. However, control has been an obstacle for the young Cosart. In 2013 he posted a dreadful 5.25 BB/9. Fortunately, Cosart was able to reduce this number to a much more respectable 3.64 BB/9 in 2014. Be prepared to take Cosart as a lower round draft pick. Most people will probably overlook him since he is young and unestablished. However, a combination of maturity and playing in Marlins Park should help Cosart drop your weekly ERA and WHIP. Cosart might also win you more games than you'll expect. Between his time last year for the struggling Astros and Marlins, Cosart still netted 13 wins. Miami's recently bolstered offense will likely provide the run support needed to help Cosart win 15 games.

Aaron Sanchez (TOR-RP) - Disregard Aaron Sanchez's poor outing yesterday (1.1IP 4H 5R 2ER). Sanchez is a top-notch prospect that could push his way into Toronto's starting rotation. Out of the bullpen Sanchez had some unbelievable statistics. In 33 innings pitched Sanchez posted a 1.09 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, and a 2.87 FIP. These numbers were further complimented by a 0.3 HR/9, 3.18 GB/FB ratio, and a 97.1 MPH average fastball. Neither lefties nor righties could hit Sanchez; lefties hit .150 against Sanchez while righties only hit .116. Obviously these numbers would be impossible to maintain as a starter, but Sanchez isn't guaranteed a spot in the rotation. Due to his past success in the bullpen Sanchez could be a surprise candidate to fill the closer role in Toronto. Whether he is pitching out of the bullpen or the starting rotation, I would definitely take a chance on Sanchez. His ceiling is so high and he'll most likely be available in the later rounds of many drafts.

Drew Smyly (TB-SP) - The day Drew Smyly got traded to the Rays he became an entirely new pitcher. Even though his 89.9 MPH average fastball didn't dazzle batters, his K/9 ratio was surprisingly decent. Last season Smyly managed to put up a 7.82 K/9 while maintaining a 3.17 K/BB. Smyly's consistency in the strike zone helped attribute to his 3.24 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Here's the fun part for fantasy baseball owners. As a member of the Tigers, Smyly posted a 3.93 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 105.1 innings pitched. While his numbers weren't atrocious, they certainly weren't impressive. As a member of the Rays, Smyly posted a 1.70 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in 47.2 innings pitched. What might be even more eye opening was that Smyly had a 2.1 WAR in only seven games. While his numbers aren't sustainable for longer periods of time, Smyly still offers a mildly high upside and could be a nice back of the rotation starter for your fantasy team.

Yordano Ventura (KC-SP) - At this moment Yordano Ventura is the projected ace of the Kansas City Royals. In his rookie season, Ventura displayed that he has what it takes to be a good pitcher in the major leagues. Ventura's 97.0 MPH average fastball is the definition of throwing cheese. As Ventura matures his 7.82 K/9 should increase. To add to Ventura's credibility, he did a good job of keeping the ball out of the bleachers. In 183 innings Ventura's averaged a 0.7 HR/9 and 1.63 GB/FB ratio. These statistics attributed to Ventura's impressive 3.20 ERA. Considering that he was a rookie, I would be surprised if Ventura didn't only get better. He is a high ceiling player with the potential to have a substantial impact on your pitching staff. Since he is young and relatively unestablished, Ventura should be available in the middle rounds of the draft.

Cody Allen (CLE-RP) - Cody Allen is a great sleeper pick in this year's fantasy draft. Allen got his first real chance to close last season, and was 24 for 28 in saves. With his role as the closer now solidified, Allen should see a rise in saves. In 69 and two-thirds innings Allen posted a 2.07 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, an 11.76 K/9, and an 86.6% strand rate. As the closer in one of the larger major league stadiums, I wouldn't be too worried about Allen's 0.9 HR/9. Allen only allowed three home runs in 37 innings at home. The road is where Allen had a harder time keeping the ball in the ballpark. Allen allowed four home runs in 32 and two-thirds innings, yet his road ERA was only 2.20. His ability to maintain a low ERA and a high K/9 ratio could make Allen a valuable commodity to your team. Also, since Allen is a relatively small name closer, he shouldn't disappear from drafts until the later rounds. Depending on the timing and your need for saves Cody Allen could be a fine solution.

Travis d'Arnaud (NYM-C) - As far as catchers go, I think Travis d'Arnaud is a diamond in the rough. His .242 average and .302 OBP from last year should improve as supported by his post All-Star statistics. Before the All-Star break, d'Arnaud only hit .217 with a dismal 14 extra base hits in 189 at bats. Following the All-Star break, d'Arnaud showed signs of life, hitting .265 with 24 extra base hits in 196 at bats. Part of d'Arnaud's potential to improve his batting average and OBP is based on his 15.2K%. Such a low strikeout percentage is comparable to solid hitting catchers such as Dioner Navarro, Wilson Ramos, and Salvador Perez. Additionally d'Arnaud can hit for power. In Double-A d'Arnaud displayed surprising pop hitting 21 home runs in 114 games played. The following year in Triple-A d'Arnaud smacked 16 home runs in only 67 games. With a scarce supply of power hitting catchers in this years' draft, d'Arnaud stands out amongst the crowd.

Joey Votto (CIN-1B) - Here is how to make a killing in your fantasy draft. Wait for Joey Votto to fall beyond the first 50 picks and then grab him. At 31 years old Votto really isn't that old and certainly has some great years left in him. In 2014, his worst major league season, Votto still had an outstanding .390 OBP, which was heavily influenced by a 17.3% BB rate. These exceptional numbers are the essence of Joey Votto. No matter how he gets there, Votto will be on base all year. With a career .359 BABIP, Votto is sure to raise his .255 average from 2014. Some might be concerned about Votto's power and health, which have both declined since 2011. Though he might not blast home runs like he used to, Votto is still a lock for 20 dingers. RBIs won't be much of a problem either. With Billy Hamilton leading off, Votto is almost guaranteed a chance to hit with runners in scoring position at least once every other game. For those unsure about Votto's health, consider that he has played in at least 100 games in all but two of his eight career seasons. One of those two seasons was his first year in the league. Votto was a September call up and only in played 24 games. Forget about last season's numbers in this situation. Don't lose the chance to have this four-time All-Star on your team because of one bad year.

Howie Kendrick (LAD-2B) - Most fantasy owners take Howie Kendrick for granted because he doesn't produce overwhelming offensive statistics. However, Kendrick is one of the most offensively reliable second baseman as displayed by his numbers in 2014. These numbers included a .347 BABIP, an 11 Off and a 115 wRC+. Further evidence of Kendrick's consistency is supported by his production from past seasons. Since 2008, Kendrick has never batted below .279 and has played in at least 100 games in each of those seasons. During this stretch Kendrick has stolen between 10-14 bases five times and hit 10 or more home runs in four of those seasons. Now a part of the stacked Dodgers lineup, Kendrick might be even more of a threat than in previous years. Since most projections don't rank Kendrick as a top 10-second basemen, he's likely to fall to the middle rounds of the draft where he could be a great steal.

Kris Bryant (CHC-3B) - Kris Bryant is very similar to Josh Gordon in the sense that you need to draft him in anticipation that he will play this season. If any player on the Cubs suffers an injury, Bryant could get the call. Between Double-A and Triple-A Bryant hit 43 home runs, while driving in 110 RBIs. To boost his credentials Bryant even stole 15 bases and that's not even the fun part. Bryant's outstanding .438 OBP at Double-A was partially due to his .440 BABIP in 297 at bats. In 297 Triple-A at bats, Bryant only posted a .367 BABIP, which was his lowest at any level with more than 60 at bats. While this drop off might be alarming, just consider that a .367 BABIP would've been second best in the major leagues last season. Bryant's power numbers and ability to hit for average makes him a must have even if he doesn't make the opening day roster. Make no mistake, Bryant is bound to reach the majors this season and will make a noticeable fantasy impact.

Delino DeShields Jr. (TEX-2B) - My favorite sleeper pick is Delino DeShields Jr. Recently acquired from Houston in the rule five draft, DeShields has a legitimate shot to make the opening day roster. If he makes the cut, DeShields is a must own. As a minor leaguer, DeShields stole 101 bases in 2012. While this number dropped to a more modest 51 in 2013, I wouldn't be too concerned. Any guy who consistently steals 50 bases a year is clearly an asset to a fantasy team. The main problem for DeShields is his bat, as conveyed by his .236 average in 2014. If he makes the opening day roster, DeShields will have to rely on more than his speed to stay in the lineup. Luckily DeShields has a decent eye at the plate. In each of his past four seasons DeShields has drawn at least 52 walks topping out at 88 in 2012. This patience is a great asset at the plate, especially for a young leadoff caliber hitter. Be prepared to make some room on your bench for DeShields. One injury to a Rangers outfielder in spring training could solidify a spot for him in the opening day lineup.

Luis Valbuena (HOU-2B/3B) - Luis Valbuena is going to replace Matt Dominguez as the starting third baseman for the Houston Astros. In 2014, Valbuena's first season with over 400 at bats, the results were mildly impressive. Over the course of 478 at bats Valbuena logged 16 home runs and 51 RBIs. His .435 SLG and .186 ISO are evidence that Valbuena is capable of exceeding 16 home runs. Also take into consideration that right field in Minute Maid Park is 27 feet shorter down the line than it is at Wrigley Field. As for Valbuena's low RBI total, don't be deceived. This lack of production was a reflection of the Cubs weak offense more than anything. On a team like the Astros, Valbuena definitely has a shot to reach 70 RBIs. Though I wouldn't make him my starting third baseman, Valbuena could be a decent utility player who will go undrafted in many leagues.

Billy Hamilton (CIN-CF) - Don't be fooled by Billy Hamilton's lackluster numbers from last season. Not many rookies can hit like Mike Trout. In Hamilton's rookie campaign he hit .250 with a .292 OBP. These numbers, especially the average will increase as Hamilton continues to adjust to major league pitching. As far as speed, Hamilton is in league of his own. In 2012 he stole 155 bases. For such a speed demon, Hamilton's 56 stolen bases in 2014 were his fewest since 2010. With Hamilton more likely to be on base this season, his stolen base total should rise. Additionally, his runs scored should also improve with Joey Votto back in the lineup. Due to his one of a kind speed, Hamilton will be a hot commodity. If you drafted a lot power early, Hamilton could be a good compliment to your lineup, but be careful not to overvalue him.

Shin-Soo Choo (TEX-LF) - If there is one batter I felt badly for last season it was Shin-Soo Choo. Despite a rough 2014 Choo is typically a top 50-fantasy player with 20-20 potential. Much of Choo's struggles last season could be attributed to his .244 average against right-handed pitching. In past seasons Choo has hit over .300 against right-handed pitching. This includes a .317 and .327 average in 2012 and 2013 respectively. It would be shocking if Choo's numbers don't improve, especially his runs scored. After scoring only 58 runs in 2014, Choo will be glad to have Prince Fielder back in the lineup. Consider Choo's miserable 2014 season a blessing in disguise. He will be less sought after than in previous drafts, and since his numbers are bound to improve Choo should be a great pick.

Mark Trumbo (ARI-1B/LF) - Everyone knows Mark Trumbo can hit the long ball. Despite a disappointing 2014 season, Trumbo should be on your radar. Now at full health, Trumbo will be a big threat in Arizona's lineup. Before his 2014 season was cut short by a foot injury, Trumbo hit 14 home runs in 88 games. These 14 home runs were complimented by 61 RBIs. At nearly a home run a week and three fourths of an RBI per game, Trumbo provided fantasy owners with enormous offensive production. Going into the 2015 season, Trumbo's career .208 ISO and .460 SLG provide signs of more power to look forward to. To add to his value, Trumbo has eligibility at 1B and LF. Make a splash and take Trumbo if you need power. After a shortened 2014 season he should come at a discount anyway.

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Time Frame: Preseason