Congrats everyone, we have made it. Spring Training games officially start tomorrow (if you're reading this on Monday) or today (If you are reading this Tuesday).
Atlanta Braves
Center Field, The Dumpster Fire - Oh wow, the excitement in Braves camp grows more by the day. Now with BJ Upton out for potentially the first month of the season there is now another platoon for the Braves. (They could legitimately have three real platoons at LF,CF,2B and two partial platoons at 3B and C). Now the focus at centerfield turns to a pair of speedsters in Eric Young Jr. and Eury Perez. Both can swipe some bases if they play full time but neither has proven at the major league level that they can get on base at a particularly high rate limiting any sort of fantasy upside. Perez however does have an excellent OBP track record in the minors, but we'll see how his spring goes in order to better gauge his chance at the starting job.
Will the real Chris Johnson please stand up? - Chris Johnson has had two polar opposite seasons for the Braves posting a .358 wOBA in 2013 and an abysmal .292 in 2014. The reason? His BABIP nearly dropped 50 points between the two, with the 2014 BABIP being more in line with his career norm. So last season is more than likely what you should expect going forward for the third baseman, hence why we could see Alberto Callaspo cut into some of his playing time. So what do you get when you have a third baseman who has no power, speed, and his best seasons came with unsustainably high BABIP numbers? Someone not worth owning in traditional formats.
Houston Astros
George Springer, Worth the risk? - George Springer could go 30/30 with a .260 average and I would not be surprised, but however he could also go .220 with 15/15 and I would also not be surprised. That's a risk that's hard to take with a guy who you likely have to spend on of your top 4 picks on. What holds him back from being a perennial first rounder is his often discussed amazing ability to swing and missed. Last year he struck out in 33% of his at bats which brought his average down into the .230 range. He is solely relying on his BABIP to provide any sort of average value with how many of his at bats end in homers and strikeouts. He's going to have to learn how to hit offspeed and breaking pitches, swinging and missing at nearly 20% of each while hovering in the 15% range on fastballs. If pitchers begin working him with more offspeed early in the count, Springer could have another season like last which could be worse, but also won't be what you paid for him.
Jake Marisnick, Outfield Sleeper? A trendy sleeper name in deep leagues that has been popping up is Marisnick who will be given every chance to win the center field job out of spring training. Helping him earn that job will be his defense which doesn't help fantasy, but he does have an edge in the department over Colby Rasmus who is also in contention for the job. He had an unspectacular debut for the Astros in 2014 but he did showcase some speed potential swiping 11 bases in 65 games, putting him on pace for about 30 over the course of the year. Like most Astros players though he has had a propensity to swing and miss at the major league level, so he'll need to get that settled down in order to become a viable fantasy option. Keep him in the back of your mind as we get closer to opening day.
Cleveland Indians
Cody Allen, Potential top 5 closer in 2015? Cody Allen was a guy I relied on in my bullpen (yes, relying on him was not great) last year and I was rewarded with a solid season even when he wasn't in the closers role. Now he has every chance to pitch there all year and rack up some serious strikeout numbers in the meantime. Despite not taking over the job until a ways into the season, Allen still notched 24 saves and picked up six wins to go along with them. He finished the year as the 17th best reliever according to ESPN's player rater and I like his odds to finish in the top ten this season. He has just a two pitch mix but both are above average and his curveball was well above average last year, ranking 6th according to Fangraphs' pitch values chart among pitchers with at least 60 innings. I feel like he cracks the 30 save mark in 2015, and with his high K rate there's an outside chance he could be one of the elites at the position.
Kyle Crockett, Handcuff for Cody Allen? Kyle Crockett was excellent in the Indians bullpen last season and now has been talked about by some in the organization as the closer of the future. Rightfully so, the job is Cody Allen's to lose but Crockett could be a nice option in holds league and may be next in line should Allen go down to injury. Allen brought a solid K/9 to the pen last year alongside an exceptional 90% strand rate, which no doubt factors in to why the front office has said what they have about him. Crockett has a three pitch repertoire from the left side with both his fastball and slider rating as above average pitches. While he did have an ERA under 2.00, his FIP was a 3.23 which helps confirm the thought that he probably won't strand 90% of his runners anymore, but he could still be a solid relief handcuff.
Around The League
Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees - So the question I have for you: Are you feeling lucky? Tanaka threw live BP to a few Yankees hitters, saying afterwards that he felt perfectly fine. He was able to throw with no limitations, including tossing a few of his devastating splitters. Among all the high risk high reward players on draft day, Tanaka may take the top ranking on both sides of that spectrum. When healthy, as we saw last year, he is arguably a top ten pitcher in all of baseball, posting 3.04 FIP and a 3.2 WAR in just 20 starts. However, he was limited to just 20 starts due to a partial tear in his UCL that he and the doctors decided that they would rehab the ligament as opposed to having Tommy John. All this means is that the elbow could be a ticking time bomb and Tanaka is going on average in the 14th round of drafts. Based on that ADP, he's going just ahead of Yordano Ventura, Lance Lynn, and Doug Fister who are all 15th round picks. I definitely like Tanaka, elbow and all, over Lynn and Fister and Ventura would be the only of those I'd consider taking over him.
Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels - Wishful thinking on the Angels part this offseason had Richards making it back this spring to live action, but Mike Scioscia says that he will not be ready for opening day. Scioscia describes Richards as 2-3 week behind some of the other players in camp and "that is the kind of window we are looking at." Before his terrible knee injury Richards was among the best in baseball with his 13-4 record paired with a 2.62 FIP. His season was definitely helped by career high contact rates (75.6%, 10th best in the majors) and swinging strike rate (10.7%, tied for 15th best in baseball). He could be a real value in the 17th round where he is currently going based on Fantistic's ADP, but be sure to have enough arms to afford missing possibly up to the first month of the season.
Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants - Oh Mr. Lincecum... All reports out of Giants' camp this spring have been positive about the two time Cy Young winner. On a maybe related note Lincecum has been working with his dad again this offseason, who if you know Tim's story his dad is the one who taught him his unorthodox mechanics. He worked with his dad in his earlier career including the Cy Young seasons, but had a bit of a falling out and this is the first offseason they've worked together in some time. So take that for what it's worth... Anyways, Lincecum has been trending in the wrong direction in all facets since the 2011 season culminating to a career low strikeout rate in 2014. In his prime years, Linceucum average around a 19% LD rate with it never getting over the 20% mark. The three years since? The lowest it has been is 23.1% which he has posted in two consecutive seasons . Linecum also seems to have relatively abandoned his hammer curve dropping from over 10% usage to now around 7% over the last two years.
Kennys Vargas, Minnesota Twins - Vargas was called up for the last third of the season for the Twins and played well for them, swatting nine homers and driving in 38 runs. He has mashed all through the minors and ultimately made the jump from AA to the big leagues. Despite his success in his brief stint in the majors, his 5% walk rate and his 27% strikeout rate definitely need to be improved upon if he wants to see continued success as the Twins' DH this year. With his 53% of pitches swung at, he could be a bit more selective at the plate with a 38% chase rate. Even with his flaws, he could still be a 20 homerun guy but with only DH eligibility it makes him tougher to roster besides in Al-Only leagues.
Adam Warren, New York Yankees - 2014 bullpen staple Adam Warren is getting the first start of the spring for the Yankees on Tuesday. While this may not mean much to his 2015 job, he was a starter all through the minors but the last time he has started the majority of the season was in 2011. His repertoire might suit well for the rotation if it came to it with both his slider and his change-up rating as above average last season. According to Fangraphs' pitch values, Warren's slider was the 25th best among pitchers with at least 70 innings. His role is still more than likely slated for the bullpen, but he's a guy to watch this spring if he performs well.
Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays - Aaron Sanchez will have every chance to earn a rotation spot this spring, and his first audition comes on Tuesday in the Blue Jays first game of the spring. The teams' top prospect was dominant in 33.0 innings at the end of last year, striking out 22% of batters with just a 6.2% swinging strike rate. He has had some command issues throughout the minors routinely recording walk rates around 4 per nine innings. He corrected that in the majors, but it'll be seen how he can perform with it over the course of the season. In AL Leagues he's worth a late flier as an upside pick, and in auction leagues as a potential $1 player.
Matt Harvey, New York Mets - ATTENTION MATT HARVEY HAS A NEW PITCH. The righty debuted a curveball against David Wright in live BP on Tuesday, one that he says he hasn't thrown since college. Two batters, Wright and Curtis Granderson, tried to hit the new pitch and neither was able to connect with it. Harvey is slated to take the mound Friday against the Tigers in his first action since undergoing Tommy John surgery 16 months ago. He has possibly the largest focus on him among all players this spring, as he will be vital if the Mets plan to contend for the postseason this year.
Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh Pirates - Polanco notched two hits in an intersquad game Monday and appears all set to take over the reins full time in 2015. He was excellent when he debuted in 2014 but was eventually "benched" in favor of Travis Snider who was shipped out of town this offseason. Polanco is no stranger to fantasy owners as almost all clamored to get the talented outfielder when he was called up. Over a full year, a 15 homer 30 steal season is not out of the realm of possibility with his overall talent package.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers - Ryu threw a bullpen session Monday and felt great after his exam came back all clear for some back tightness that he was suffering from. He likely will have one more bullpen session before hopefully getting to face live hitters his next time out. He's been an excellent pitcher in his first two seasons stateside posting a pair of three win seasons which are just overshadowed by the fact he throws in the same rotation as Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. He's a solid mid-rotation guy in most leagues.
Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins - Fernandez threw off a mound Sunday and by all reports everything felt and was very normal. It's such a shame that his 2014 was cut short because he was on pace to shatter what he did in his rookie campaign and Kershaw MAY HAVE (I repeat may have) had competition for the Cy Young Award. He's going in the 21st round in mock drafts, and owners will have some serious thinking as to whether he'll return to form this year or if it'll take until 2016 for us to see Jo-fer at full strength again.
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