Minnesota Twins
Phil Hughes' breakout: More to come or regression?
A year after going 4-14 with a 5.19 ERA, Phil Hughes had a record-setting 2014 in which he won 16 games, posted a 3.52 ERA, threw over 200 innings with 186 strikeouts and just 16 walks, and was the 22nd ranked pitcher by ESPN player rater, all while somehow underperforming his peripherals. Thanks to the best strikeout to walk ratio in MLB history (11.63) and a slightly inflated opponent BABIP, Hughes' FIP was a lowly 2.65, the sixth-best figure among qualified starters in 2014. The crux of the debate for Hughes in 2015 is which is stronger: the natural regression expected from such a huge jump in statistics in one season, or the improved ERA that the underlying metrics (FIP, K/BB) say is on the horizon.
As is typically the case, the answer is likely a combination of the two. However, to imply Hughes will simply split the difference is too simplistic. The factors on the positive side are far stronger than the negative. For one, Hughes was an elite prospect in the Yankee organization, and much of his struggles in New York came because of the long ball. Target Field is far more forgiving for fly ball pitchers, which Hughes is. The fact that Hughes' HR/FB rate plummeted to 6.2 percent in 2014, means there is likely some bounce back to slightly closer to his career average of 9.4, but a HR/FB rate a couple percentage points below his Yankee days would be expected with the change in venue.
There's also the fact that Hughes stated pounding the strike zone in 2014, letting opposing hitters make contact if they wanted to, and trusting that that contact would be better for Hughes than the batter. He also changed from a slider back to a cutter as his secondary pitch, a change from 2014. All these wholesale changes mean that a total breakout can't simply be defined as lucky. Expect Hughes to not quite live up to his FIP from 2014 this season, but 15-16 wins with a 3.30 ERA and 200 strikeouts is definitely within reason, and would far outstrip his rank as the 51st pitcher in the ESPN top 300 rankings right now.
Danny Santana Lord of the BABIP
Despite playing in just 101 games in 2014, Santana was the sixth-ranked short stop of the season per ESPN Player Rater. He had a positive impact in every category with 70/7/40/20/.319 R/HR/RBI/SB/BA. Of course, there is one Bartolo Colon-sized elephant in the room - his BABIP. Santana sported a BABIP of .405 over his 430 plate appearances in 2014, an incredibly high number even for a speedy slap-hitter of Santana's ilk. In Triple A in 2013, Santana posted a BABIP of .353, and even that seems like a high water mark for 2015. Santana struck out more than five times as frequently as he walked in 2014, and while his line drive rate was among the league leaders, even the best BABIP over the course of a full season is hardly over .350.
Santana should benefit from playing a full season in an underrated Twins' offense (only the Tigers and Dodgers scored more runs in the second half of the 2014 season), and his speed is legitimate. If you grab him when he falls to you in the final rounds of a standard ten-team league, you'll probably be happy with the return (75/8/50/25/.275 ish), but reaching to draft him early because of his 2014 season will likely result in deflated value for your pick.
Is Kyle Gibson the reverse Johnny Cueto?
Johnny Cueto has made a living of having his ERA beat his FIP year-in and year-out. His ERA has been lower than his FIP in every single Major League season, and his career ERA (3.27) is sixty points lower than his career FIP (3.87). Some people think that is because he has been lucky, and is due for a Matt Cain-esque fall sooner than later, but others believe that it is a skill, and Cueto is able to induce weak contact, and thus limit opponent's ability to get hits when they put the ball in play. I'm in the latter camp, but the real question is: what does this have to do with Kyle Gibson?
If beating one's FIP is a skill, then there must be players who are lacking in that skill - enter Kyle Gibson. Gibson has a career ERA (4.92) eighty-two points higher than his career FIP (4.10). Granted, Gibson has only thrown 230.1 innings in the Majors, but it is a trend that was prevalent in two of his three prior minor league seasons, as well. Assuming a player's ERA is going to drop simply because he has a lower FIP is far from scientific, and a lot of Gibson's other peripherals paint the picture of a pitcher much closer in talent to his 2014 ERA (4.47) than his 2014 FIP (3.80). For one, Gibson hardly ever gets strikeouts, with just 5.37 K/9 in 2014. Although Gibson struck out far more at the minor league level, those hitters are in the minor leagues for a reason, and his K/9 rate declined from 2011-2013 at Triple A. Gibson's opponent BABIP against was actually quite low in 2014 (.287), and if anything may be slightly higher in 2015, meaning a slightly higher WHIP and ERA.
Gibson is off the board for standard ten-team leagues, but has drawn a bit off buzz for late rounds simply because guys who have a strong ERA-FIP are always looked at as potential sleepers. Don't buy the hype on Gibson, though.
Oakland A's
Who's (that) on first?
While Ike Davis is currently the designated starter at first base for the A's, given his propensity to, well, not be good at baseball, there's a decent chance his platoon mate, Mark Canha will at least get a chance to impress the A's this season. Canha can also play in the outfield, where a couple of the A's more injury-prone players are already banged up through a week of Spring Training. Canha is a Rule 5 draft pick, meaning that he will have to be on the major league roster this year for the A's. Canha is also one of the few current A's with above average power, and may find his way into the lineup that way. He hit 20 home runs in Triple A last year, and posted a wRC+ over 125 each season in the minor leagues so far. In typical A's fashion, Canha can also get on base with the best of them. With a walk rate over 10 percent in each minor league system, it's no surprise that his OBP has been over .370 each of the last four years in the minors. Even though he was never considered a top-level prospect, it's amazing he hasn't gotten a crack at the majors yet based soley on his stats in the minor leagues to date. This will be the year he gets that chance, however, and all signs point to Canha being a nice under-the-radar pick up in deeper, or AL-Only leagues.
Sonny skies?
Sonny Gray is undoubtedly the A's ace at this point, and with his ADP of 19th among starting pitchers at ESPN, he is being drafted like an ace. After 219 innings of 3.08 ERA baseball as a 24-year old, this shouldn't be too surprising, but is he worth the high pick in 2015? Gray got a little bit lucky in 2014, with a left on base rate of 74.5, and an opponent BABIP of .277. As a result, his FIP was a far more pedestrian 3.46. That FIP, coupled with a not-so-ace-like K/9 of 7.52 and BB/9 of 3.04 draw some questions. There's also the fact that 219 innings is a lot for a young arm, and the likelihood of Gray reaching that figure again - and getting the extra strikeouts that go with such a big inning total - seem like a best case scenario. Gray does have some nasty stuff, with a 93 mph heater, and a big-time hammer of a curveball, but color me not sold on Gray. The A's are likely to slip a bit in the standings given their roster overhaul over the winter, and Gray only won 14 games in 2014. In the sabrmetric world, wins may be overrated, but in fantasy they matter quite a bit. Gray's WHIP is also mediocre, and despite all those innings last year, he was only the 25th best pitcher for the season, per ESPN Player Rater. Maybe the most telling sign of danger for Gray is that his fan-predicted numbers are far superior to his Steamer-projected numbers over at Fangraphs. This is a telltale sign of a player who is likely to be drafted too early whenever your draft comes along.
In the Fuld?
Sam Fuld endeared himself to A's fans last year (what fanbase hasn't Fuld endeared himself to at this point?) despite slashing just .210/.275/.293 in 53 games with the club. However, his strong defense, and decent ability to draw walks saw the club bring him back after the 2014 season, and he is currently one of only two fully healthy outfielders with major league experience on the A's. With the A's giving starting spots to Coco Crisp and Josh Reddick when they are healthy, even if Fuld doesn't get the start in left field, he should see plenty of time in the outfield when those two are out with injuries. Those plate appearances should not be enough to warrant even desperate fantasy owners, though. Two of Fuld's three biggest strengths - his defense and ability to draw walks - don't help in most fantasy leagues, and his one strength that did help in 2014, his speed, is likely coming to an end. Fuld is currently 33 years old, and although he saw a resurgence in his steals total last season, with 21, it's not too often that guys in their mid-thirties see their steal totals trend upwards. Fuld's line drive rate has dropped each of the last three seasons, and his infield pop up rate has sky rocketed. Fuld may be in the fold for the A's in terms of playing time, but he shouldn't be in the fold for any fantasy rosters.
Around the League
Brandon Moss (OF/1B-CLE): Moss was a victim of the A's Great Purge of 2014, with the club parting ways with Moss via a trade that brought minor league talent to Oakland. Moss is fresh off a second half of 2014 which he would undoubtedly LOVE to forget. In the first half of 2014, Moss hit .268 with 21 home runs; in the second half he hit .173 with just four measly home runs. So what was behind that precipitous fall? For one, Moss just stopped swinging the bat. His walk rate rose over five percent (from an already lofty 9.6 percent) and his strikeout rate rose over seven percent (from an already lofty 23.6 percent). Moss also saw his BABIP drop from .301 to .248 but that type of fluctuation isn't uncommon in half season splits. Interestingly enough, Moss actually hit a higher percentage of fly balls in the second half of the year, but saw his HR/FB rate plummet from 18.8 percent to 7 percent. Even his line drive rate went up, and Moss seems primed to bounce back in Cleveland. Unlike their Ohio brethren in Cincinnati, the Indians don't have a top-five stadium in terms of home runs for hitters, but Progressive Field is certainly easier to leave than O.co, another factor in the "Pro Moss" column.
Micah Johnson (2B-CHW): The battle for the White Sox starting second base position may be one that only affects AL-Only leagues at this point, as both Gordon Beckham and Emilio Bonafacio have struggled this Spring Training, leaving Micah Johnson as the leader to take the starting spot. His recent play both in the field and at the plate has sparked the White Sox interest in the 24-year old two-bagger. He has a double, a triple, and a home run to go with a .389/.450/.722 slash line at the moment, by far the best of any of the competition. Even if he gets the spot, Johnson isn't worth more than a look in standard ten-team leagues, but getting late-round value from a player who gets consistent at bats at a position like second base is how AL-Only leagues are won.
Troy Tulowitski (SS-COL): In his first at bat of his second game of Spring Training, Troy Tulowitski went opposite field for a home run, a sight all Rockies' fans have to enjoy. The oft-injured shortstop is coming a season in which he missed 71 games, and has only played 264 of a possible 486 games over the last three seasons. He's only played in over 125 games once in the past five seasons, and at some point owners have to wonder if he'll ever stay healthy a full season. On the other hand, Tulo managed to be the seventh-best short stop by Player Rater in 2014 even with all those games missed. And even that sells him short a bit, as the majority of leagues have IR spots, which means once he went down, Tulo owners were able to fill in with a replacement. Unless the Tulo owner was in a deep enough league where that replacement actually had a negative effect on the team, "Tulo+his replacement" likely came out to better than the seventh-best production from the short stop position on the season as a whole. Tulowitski is currently going with the 13th pick in ESPN leagues, and getting his talent level in the second round seems worth it to me. Taking a health flier at a position like shortstop is inherently a little riskier than, say the outfield, since the replacement level is lower at shortstop, but even if Tulo misses a month or so, his ceiling is too high to pass up.
Adam Lind (1B-MIL): Lind made his spring debut for the Brewers Wednesday night 0-for-2. I hate to bury the lede, so here it is: I love Lind this season. If you couldn't tell by Tulowitski's write up, but those perennially injured pure hitters are guys are big on this season. Lind is currently being drafted in the last round or two of standard leagues over at ESPN, and considering his ceiling, and the minimal risk of a final round pick, Lind seems like a guy I will end up taking in just about every league. (Note: this may mean he is going to be cursed this season.) Despite a poor history against lefties, Lind has gotten the vote of confidence from manager, Ron Roenicke, who says he will start off without a platoon, until Lind, "proves he can't hit lefties." While this may cut into his batting average a bit, the added production from the other three categories (you're not drafting Lind for any steals) will all stand to benefit from an every day spot in the lineup. Of course, Lind will only be an every day guy if he can stay healthy, and with a back injury already flaring up that could be troublesome. If you're making Lind "The Guy" as your first baseman that's probably a bad strategy, but as a solid bench contributor, or utility player he is a perfect late round pick.
Yoenis Cespedes (OF-DET): Cespdes left the Tigers' game on Thursday with quad tightness, his second minor injury of Spring Training so far. First, Cespedes missed a few games with a lower back trouble, and now may miss a couple more games with this injury. While these injuries don't look like long-term issues, picking up these little nicks that can nag throughout the year this early in the year is never a good sign. The good news is when he has been in the lineup this spring, Cespedes has looked good for his new team, with a Grand Slam as the highlight of the spring so far. Cespedes will be playing for his third team in less than a year, so seeing how he adjusts to Detroit will be interesting to see.
Masahrio Tanaka (SP-NYY): Tanaka made his spring debut Thursday, and looked awesome. He went two perfect innings, throwing only 19 pitches, and striking out a pair. Tanaka has said his elbow feels good, and similar to New York ace Matt Harvey, may actual see his value drop with a good Spring Training. Confused? Pitchers like Tanaka and Harvey have an inherent risk attached as they return from injury, however, if these two continue to excel in the preseason their average draft position will continue to rise, and as such, their value returned from where they are drafted is lowered. As a guy who was high on Tanaka prior to Spring Training, I hope to see him to well this spring, of course, but if he does too well, he will lose some of his value.
Zack Greinke (SP-LAD): Top-tier starter, Zack Grienke made his 2015 Spring Training debut on Wednesday, and didn't quite have his best stuff. The Dodgers righty went two innings giving up two runs on two hits and two walks. Greinke said his, "stuff was just a little off," but said the outing was okay for his first start. Greinke is the type of player who is well established enough to not have to worry about a couple of rough outings in Spring Training. The 31-year old is coming off one of his best seasons as a pitcher, with his lowest FIP since his 2009 Cy Young season in Kansas City. With a stacked Dodger lineup, and a lofty K rate (9.21 K/9 in 2014), Greinke is a stud.
Alex Rodriguez (3B-NYY): The A-Rod saga got off to a quick start this Spring Training, with Rodriguez homering in his fifth game of the spring. Rodriguez is hitting .455 so far this spring, and while we all know the danger in putting too much stock into Spring Training numbers, for a player like A-Rod, who hasn't played a game in 533 days, they do mean a little bit more. Seeing him shake off all that rust to stay competent with the bat is impressive. Of course, the Yankees are doing everything in their power to avoid playing Rodriguez, in part because of his upcoming bonuses that kick in when he reaches certain milestones; so determining just how much any preseason success will lead to playing time is a difficult matter to determine. Rodriguez is really just a lottery ticket at this point, as there is so much uncertainty surrounding him. That being said, lottery tickets can be pretty awesome if you win one...
Yu Darvish (SP-TEX): Darvish seeked a second opinion on his elbow on Wednesday, and the verdict came back the same - Tommy John surgery. Darvish will likely go under the knife early next week, and will miss the entire 2015 season. This is disappointing news for Darvish, Ranger fans, and fantasy baseball players alike. Darvish is one of the top arms in baseball when healthy, but owners in keeper leagues now have to worry about what have been a couple seasons worth of injuries adding up.
Cliff Lee (SP-PHI): Cliff Lee also got a second opinion from James Andrews on Thursday, and like Darvish, the news wasn't good. Lee forewent surgery this offseason, hoping that his elbow could heal itself. Unfortunately, there was no change, and Lee now faces the question of whether pitching through discomfort again, or accepting his fate and taking the surgery (not Tommy John) that would keep him out for the entire 2015 season. Lee and the Phillies aren't going to be relevant this season, and Lee has already said that he has thought about retirement anyways. Lee should be avoided in drafts at this point, and if anyone did use a keeper spot on him they are probably regretting the decision.
Click here http://www.fantistics.com/
