As we drive deeper into the Spring Training season, we will be looking at a few players from each of a trio of teams, the Padres, Cardinals and the Blue Jays. These 3 teams have the ability to be very competitive this season in each of their respective Divisions. This potpourri of players range from established stars, to rising stars, to a hitter and pitcher in position battles, and a talented young player coming off a very disappointing season. Then on to a smorgasbord of players across a sampling of the remaining Major League teams. In the mix we have 3 pitchers with emerging star potential, a rebound candidate, and two veterans who might take a fall or might not. And finally three hitters including a star on the rebound and two young players on the rise.
Will Middlebrooks, (3B- San Diego)
Will Middlebrooks blasted a 3 run HR this afternoon which is his 3rd in Spring Training to go along with 10 RBI's and a .345 BA. He was traded to San Diego this off-season after a very disappointing run with the Red Sox. Middlebrooks was hampered by numerous injuries with the Sox but at least he has shown the maturity not to use this as an excuse. The only thing that he can do now is show it on the field which he has done very well in Spring Training so far. Still he is in a fight with Yangervis Solarte for the 3B spot. Solarte, who lacks Middlebrook's power at a position where power is important, is also hitting well this spring but with little in the way of extra base hits. Middlebrooks seemed to be stiff at the plate last season and his prodigious power did not show up with only 2 HR in 234 PA with the Sox. A 29.9% K rate certainly did not help. The word out of San Diego is that this Middlebrooks may be one of the Padres best pickups in a season where they retooled much of their lineup. He seems to have made some adjustments to his swing and he is driving the ball with authority. If Middlebrooks can continue to develop this way he seems likely to trump Solarte and could have a surprisingly good season for the Padres.
Jedd Gyorko (2B-San Diego)
After a productive rookie season that saw him post a .195 ISO and club 23 HR, Gyorko sagged in 2014. He missed almost a third of the season with plantar fasciitis which we all know can throw a players production into major decline. Gyorko managed only 10 HR in almost the same number of plate appearances as his rookie season. He batted just .210 even though he improved his walk rate from 6.3% to 8.1% and his K% remained level. Gyorko's other peripherals remained fairly level and he even improved his contact rate by 2% but he could not overcome a very unlucky .253 BABIP. I'm not too concerned that Gyorko's Spring Training season has started off slowly with a very high K rate and a .214 average. The steady improvement he showed in the 2nd half of last season when he started to recover from his foot injury points to a nice bounce back season in 2015. His 75% Contact Rate suggests that he will never be a strong BA guy, so a .250-.260 BA might be the best we can expect. But even in the spacious San Diego Ball Park, a return to 20+ HR is certainly a possibility and that is a very nice dividend at a very thin 2B position.
Kolton Wong, (2B- St Louis)
Kolton Wong had an impressive rookie season and the arrow is definitely pointing up for this talented young ballplayer. In 433 Plate Appearances last season, Wong hit 12 HR and stole 20 Bases while hitting .249. His K% soared in the 2nd half of the season and he walked less which I think is more of an indicator of a rookie pressing rather than Wong losing command of his strike zone. His plate discipline in the minors was always good so I think this area of his game will stabilize during his sophomore campaign. His Spring Training numbers have been less than stellar but he has managed to steal 3 bases. An effective base stealer, Wong is a strong contact hitter with good bat speed so a jump in BA to the .260-.270 range and 25+ steals seems achievable. He is still only 24 years old so I'm convinced of his potential to develop even further. Owners in Dynasty Leagues please take note as Wong could enter the ranks of top 5 Second Basemen as early as next season.
Adam Wainwright (SP-St Louis)
Adam Wainwright had has his first start of Spring Training on Saturday after recovering from an abdomen injury. He made an impressive debut throwing 64 pitches and 4 scoreless innings against the Braves. Wainwright is coming off a fantastic 2014 campaign where he won 20 games and delivered a 2.38 ERA. While he should be in line for another fine season, there are a few minor blips to be aware of for the 2015 campaign. His First Strike % took a major dive in 2014 and his swinging strike % also declined. Combine this with a 5.3% HR/FB rate that could regress this season to more of his career 7.9% range, you have a risk of a much higher ERA and a declining K%. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have Wainwright on all my teams, but I don't expect him to duplicate his 2014 season and savvy fantasy players should not overpay.
Matt Holliday (OF- St Louis)
Matt Holliday started off very slowly last season but came on like gangbusters in the 2nd half where he produced 15 HR and 51 RBI's. Holliday is a bit of an anomaly. He is now 35 yet he has been able to maintain an otherworldly 107 mph batted ball speed. Holiday has great command of the strike zone as his 11% walk rate almost matched a very controlled 15% K rate. He was very unlucky last season with a low .237 single %, so it likely that we will see an improved batting average this season more in the 285-.290 range. Matt's ISO has drifted downward over the past few seasons, and he hasn't broken 30 HR since his last thin air 2007 season with the Rockies, but 20+ HR is still in the cards. Holliday comes without a lot of injury risk for a player his age as he has averaged 150 games over the last 3 seasons. Matt is the kind of building block player you need to assemble a championship team.
Jose Reyes (SS-Toronto)
Jose Reyes had a double and a triple and scored three times to bring his average to .388 in Sunday's Spring Training action. With Reyes a top 5 season at SS is always probable as long as he stays healthy. He has played only four full seasons of baseball since 2008. Last year was a nice bounce back season for Reyes as he had 655 plate appearances and produced 94 runs, 30 stolen bases, and batted .287. Particularly encouraging was his 30 bags in 32 tries which is a strong indicator of the condition of his oft-injured hamstrings. This season he sits atop a tremendous Toronto lineup with Josh Donaldson added in the off season to a lineup of hitting stars like Encarnacion and Bautista. There is little doubt that if he can stay healthy he will score well over 100 runs and might exceed his SB totals of last season. And there is more good news. His BABIP of .312 last season affords him some additional upside in BA. He might not be the 5.8 WAR player he was with the Mets in 2011 but at only 32 he could have his best season in years especially if his walk % and OBP return to anywhere near his career average.
Aaron Sanchez, (SP-Toronto)
If early indications from Manager John Gibbons on Thursday prove true, Aaron Sanchez will join the back end of the Toronto rotation this season. While his Spring Training has not been a very promising one, he will still look to fill the spot available now that Marcus Stroman is out for the season. His last Spring Training performance against the Red Sox saw him give up 3 runs in 5 innings against a Boston squad without their top hitters. Sanchez pitched very effectively in relief last season, posting a 1.09 ERA and a 0.697 WHIP in 33 innings, but his performance as a starter in the Minors was uneven. The front office in Toronto is out of good options but must still have strong hopes for Sanchez. Just two years ago he was ranked as the Blue Jays top pitching prospect ahead of Stroman and was projected as a top of the rotation starter. In his 2013 Triple A season, Sanchez walked more than 4 batters per nine innings and he posted a 4.19 ERA. He did exhibit better control as a reliever last season walking 2.45/ 9 innings pitched. Sanchez has a strong 96 mph fastball but his poor 6.2% Swinging Strike rate shows that he has much more to learn about harnessing his raw stuff. He is only 22 years old, so he has the time to develop, but don't be surprised to see him struggle early as he adjusts to his new role.
Carlos Carrasco (SP, Cleveland)
Carlos Carrasco has fantasy ace potential and could be available in the later rounds of your draft. Do I need to say more? His last outing in Spring Training saw him give up one run on 6 hits in 3.2 innings but he was coming off a minor injury that cost him his last start so it was nothing to be too concerned about. After the All-Star Break, Carrasco moved from the Indians bullpen into a starter role and he was terrific. In 78 innings he posted a 9.4K/9 rate and a 1.72 ERA. He demonstrated excellent control with a 1.95/9 inning walk rate and he produced ground balls at an admirable 53% clip. Armed with an explosive 95 mph fastball and a biting slider, he has the arsenal to be very successful this season. The only concern I have is that he is only two years removed from Tommy John surgery. Carrasco logged just 139 innings last season so we will need to monitor his usage closely. Our best guess is in the 180-190 innings range. With the potential to produce a sub 3.00 ERA, 180K's and a strong WHIP, Carrasco could outperform Greinke, Shields, and even Lester who will go much earlier in a standard draft.
Taijuan Walker (SP, Seattle)
Taijuan Walker has been brilliant this Spring Training hurling 12 shutout innings. Only 22, Walker holds immense promise but is in a battle for the 5th spot in the Seattle rotation with Roenis Elias who has pitched much less effectively. After only 15 innings pitched in 2013, his debut with the Mariners in 2014 reminded all of his of his great talent and obvious shortcomings. Walker has a crisp 94 mph fastball with good command, a tantalizing curveball, and a functional change. His 9.6% Swinging Strike rate is good but there is even more upside there. His Achilles heel has been control and he walked over 4 batters per 9 innings last season. Unfortunately, Walker has only 53 innings of Major League experience so the sample size leaves us with a lot of questions about when he will emerge as a force for the Mariners. What isn't in question is his upside and the potential is there for the Mariners to have another exceptional front line starter. I think that the progress he has made this Spring Training speaks volumes about his development and I would bet on him making a real strong impact this season.
Danny Salazar (SP-Cleve)
Danny Salazar has as much potential for a breakout this season as any other pitcher in the AL. After a brutal start to last season, where he pitched to a 5.53 ERA, the league hit .295 against him, and he found himself back in the minors, Salazar turned it all around in the 2nd half. He posted a 3.50 ERA with more than a K/ inning while holding the opposition batters to a .252 BA. Salazar has electric stuff with a 95 mph fastball and a good change. While he was hurt a bit with his slider, Salazar still had an absolutely stellar 11% swinging strikeout rate last season. To fully understand his potential, you need only look at his 14.6% swinging strike rate in 2013 when he also recorded an outstanding 67% first strike rate. Salazar's xFIP was nearly a run lower than his 4.25 ERA so he definitely underperformed his underlying peripherals last season. In his most recent Spring Training start he struck out 5 in 4 innings of work so the stuff is working again. If Salazar can just improve the rotation on his slider, he could have the breakout we all predict as early as this year.
Justin Masterson (SP, BOS)
Justin Masterson held the Orioles to one run in four innings on Friday rebounding from a terrible start against the Phillis where he gave up 6 runs in 3.1 innings. His Spring Season performance has been shaky which is fine by me if you think there is untapped value here. Masterson is a perfect high risk/ high reward gem for your fantasy team this year. Last season was terrible for Masterson as he lost more than 2 MPH off his fastball and produced a 7-9 record with a horrible 5.88 ERA. Remember this is the same pitcher who in 2013 struck out more than a batter an inning, won 14 games, and posted a 3.45 ERA. Masterson had a series of knee issues last season and if you believe as I do that this could easily explain his decline in velocity, then a rebound season is very possible. He has been healthy this Spring Training and that is the only news that counts as he works to regain his velocity and mechanics. Masterson is back with the Red Sox who originally drafted him in 2006. They are willing to take a risk on him again and so should you.
Jered Weaver, (SP LAA)
Jered Weaver has been especially effective this Spring Training coming off a scoreless 5 1/3 effort against the Giants on Sunday. He has always been an extreme fly ball pitcher with a knack for outperforming his peripherals. Last season he won 18 games on only 22 QS so it is unlikely that we will see a replay of that level of performance. He only has an 86 mph fastball but his 69 mph curveball still keeps batters off their game. At 32, the question with Weaver is when will the league catch up with his "Smoke and Mirror" routine. There were some ominous signs last season as he suffered with the highest HR/FB ratio of his career. Weaver delivered a bit higher K rate but it came at the expense of a significant increase in walks to a career high 2.74/9 innings. His swinging strike rate dropped by 1% and his 56% first strike rate was the lowest of his career. It would appear that his deceptive style is coming a bit unglued. Weaver sits on the razors edge and so will his owners this season. However, something tells me that he will be able to keep the avalanche from rolling over him again in 2015. Don't bet against Weaver continuing to be a very usable starter for fantasy owners this season.
Joe Nathan, (RP, Detroit)
I think this is the season that will see 40 year old Joe Nathan finally succumb. Unfortunately for Joe, Detroit has a very effective backup plan at Closer in Joakim Soria who twice topped 40 saves with the Royals. The fans are more than ready for a change. His 2014 season saw an alarming rise in walks to 4.5/ 9 innings and he had a very ugly 4.81 ERA. Always prone to the long ball, his brilliant 3% HR/FB rate in 2013 regressed back to 8.1% last season. His F-Strike% is on a steady 3 year decline and his 9.2% Swing Strike rate is not what you want from your closer. Do I need to say more? To his credit, he has been mostly effective this Spring, save for a 4 ER and 6 run nightmare in 2/3 of inning last week. While he seems to have the support of the manager, his margin for error is very slim, so I would bet on Soria taking control of this Closer situation in the first few months of this upcoming season.
Dustin Pedroia (2B-Bos)
Dustin Pedroia is hitting .333 with a HR and 5 RBI's and looks healthy this Spring Training. Saddled with an injury to his wrist all of last season, he underwent surgery in the off-season. It is highly encouraging to see the ball coming off his bat again with much greater authority. The 2014 season saw Pedroia's ISO drop below .100 and he was able to hit only 7 HR in 609 plate appearances. He lacked his usual control of the strike zone and his K rate jumped to 12.3%. Adding to his woes, his stolen base output dropped to 6 after averaging 21 over the past 3 seasons. Can we reasonably expect Pedroia return to elite status at 2B this season? I think the answer is yes. Still only 31, Pedroia has accomplished a lot with grit and determination considering he was not blessed with exceptional natural bat speed. However, the loss of 3 mph off his usual numbers last season could not be overcome and clearly points to the problem with his wrist. The drop-off in his overall production in the prior seasons can be attributed in large part to nagging injuries with his hands. He just does not have the margin of error that more physically gifted players do. If Pedroia is truly over his injury woes, as he says he is, a return to 2012 numbers when he hit 15 HR's and drove in 81 looks possible. This is a player with elite contact skills, so the ability to drive the ball again could mean a significant upgrade in his production this season and a return to star status.
Kole Calhoun (OF-LAA)
Kole Calhoun is a very good ballplayer. There I said it. Universally ignored by pundits coming into the 2014 season, this 8th round draft pick performed very well in his 1st full year in the majors. He produced a .272/.321/.450 triple slash line with 17 HR's and 90 runs scored. Calhoun has a knack for hitting line drives, as he proved with last season's 23.8% rate, and he has enough pop to maintain a 13% HR/FB ratio. He's hitting over .350 in Spring Training action. The 27 year old right fielder should give you 15- 20 HR and 15-20 steals to go along with 40 doubles and triples. While he is not blessed with great bat speed, he has good plate discipline. Calhoun is a solid #3 OF and should have your respect and attention in this year's fantasy play.
Charlie Blackmon (OF, Col)
Charlie Blackmon burst onto the scene last year with an eye-opening 19 HR, 28 SB performance while batting a cool .288. The question for this 28 year old late bloomer is can he sustain this level of performance or was his 2014 performance merely an aberration? Let's talk a closer look at his numbers from last season. Blackmon is a very good contact hitter and unlike many Major Leaguers he has good overall numbers against off-speed pitches. A plus. He puts the ball in the air about 37% of the time and his 400 foot distance on HR's suggests that he can sustain this level of 20 HR a season power production. Plus number two. He stole 28 bases but was thrown out 10 times so he clearly needs to improve here. A negative, but one that he and the team can work on. If he does develop a better base stealing approach he could top 30 SB this season. His Home and Away splits are dramatic but the benefit of playing half his games in Coors does not go away. Many have written that he slumped after a startling April explosion, but his July and September numbers were just fine. I think Blackmon represents an exciting power/speed combo sitting atop the Rockies lineup and he will produce numbers this season that will have him ranked in the top 20 OF's at the end of this season. He could prove to be a better value than Justin Upton who is going 4 rounds earlier than Blackmon in most drafts.
@Stevietheshu
