St Louis Cardinals
Trevor Rosenthal (CL) - Closer Controversy?
Trevor Rosenthal saved an impressive 46 games in 2014 but his lack of control resulted in 6 blown saves. After posting a 2.39 BB/9 rate in 2013 he ballooned to 5.37 in 2014. While the saves total was excellent for Rosenthal in his first season in the closer role, it was also quite a rocky road as his 3.20 ERA was the highest among all Major League closers with more than 35 saves. He followed this up with a very shaky post season that saw him receive the dreaded vote of confidence from Manager Mike Matheny. The Cards went out and acquired RP Jordan Walden in the Jason Heyward trade. Walden filled in admirably in the Closer role when the Braves wanted to give Craig Kimbrel a rest. Could there be a reliever controversy brewing in St Louis? Looking back at his career performance Rosenthal had never even approached this level of futility with his control even in the Minors. Part of the problem was significant 7% drop in first strike % from 2013. It would be nice if he could regain some of the effectiveness he lost with his cutter, but armed with an outstanding fastball that averages almost 97 mph and a devastating and improving change he threw 14% of the time he has the arsenal to dominate. Rosenthal was able to cut his HR/FB rate in half in 2014 so not everything was trending in the wrong direction. I think he brings his walk rate issues under control and achieves elite closer status. We don't see any real controversy here as we have Rosenthal ranked #7 among closers and he could deliver even higher value in 2015.
Jason Heyward (OF): Rebound Season
Jason Heyward has failed to approach his stellar 2012 campaign when he blasted 27 HR's, stole 21 bases, and drove in 82. His .210 ISO from that season dropped to .113 during 2014 and his 11 HR output contributed to him being traded to the Cards. Heyward was moved up and down the Braves lineup in his tenure there and this is often not a good thing for a young ballplayer. I think this move to St Louis will help restore his value. While he seemed anxious at the plate in Atlanta he still managed to improve his contact rate to a career high of 82.2% in 2014. His average bat speed and batted ball distance dropped in 2014 which accounts for the lower HR production. However, he is still only 25 so I would not be surprised to see a rebound across the board in 2015. Perhaps he is not the 25-30 HR hitter we all hoped he would be, but a simple return to his 13% HR/FB rate of 2013, which is consistent with his career average, should see him hit at least 20 HR in 2015. Heyward will also benefit from being surrounded by a much better hitting squad in St Louis. GM John Mozeliak recently said that Heyward would bat in the #3, #4, or #5 slot in the order which should help his value greatly.
San Diego Padres
Matt Kemp (OF): Back on Track
Matt Kemp is a newly minted Padre and part of a very aggressive off-season retooling by the front office. Kemp went from barely missing any games from 2008-2011 culminating in his 2011 MVP season to playing in only 179 games in 2012-13. While he did participate in 150 games last season, and put up a strong .287/.346/.506 slash line, his injury history even at 30 years old will determine just how much value he delivers in his new surroundings. The San Diego Ballpark has not been kind to hitters not named Adrian Gonzalez, but Kemp's 405 foot average HR distance over the last 4 years indicates that he can hit a ball out of any park. It is encouraging that Kemp gained steam as the 2014 season progressed. He smacked 17 of his 25 HR's in his last 64 games driving in 54 runs and batting .309. Petco is likely to suppress some of his HR/FB numbers so he will be hard pressed to maintain his 20% mark of last season. While his batted ball speed is slightly below average now, the key for Kemp will always be his ability to stay off the DL. If he remains healthy the full year he could flirt with last year's numbers which would make him a nice #3 OF with some upside.
Wil Myers (OF)-Bright Future
After a promising debut with the Rays organization in 2013 where he hit 13 HR, scored 50, and drove in 53 in 88 games, a wrist injury destroyed his 2014 season. Traded to the Padres in the off-season, Myers has a world of talent but injuries such as the one he sustained can have long lasting effect. Myers showed ample power potential when he mashed 24 HR's in 99 games at AAA in the Royals system. How much of that power he retains during the healing process is anybody's guess. When healthy he has great bat speed and the ability to hit the ball to all fields. Myers is only 24 so I think the injury, new ballpark, and adjustments to a new league may cap his production below his talent level for at least one more year but his future is very bright.
Toronto Blue Jays
Marcus Stroman (SP)-Staying Power?
The concern about Stroman has always been his size. Slight of build at only 5-9 and 185 pounds, can he continue to perform at last year's surprising level? The answer to this question lies in his underlying peripherals. Stroman produces ground balls at an excellent 53.8% clip and he keeps the ball in the park which is critical at Rogers Centre. He has a very good slider and a versatile arsenal which should auger well for his potential to develop further this season. While he has a crisp 93.6 mph fastball, he only produces a swinging strike rate a tad above league average at 8.5%. Through better mechanics and pitch selection, this rate could very well improve for the 24 year old hurler. If Stroman does not to experience too much regression in his 6.5% HR/FB rate, he is poised to take a step forward in 2015. Even if this regression does occur, we are still looking at a talented young hurler who will be effective even in a hitter's park like Rogers Centre. I see him as a very nice addition to your staff. If he sustains his low HR/FB rate this season, he could perform as a mid-range #3 starter with significant upside.
Russell Martin (C): Power Source at Catcher
Russell Martin received a warm contract welcome from the Blue Jays this off-season. Coming off a season where is benefited greatly from a career high .336 BABIP, he contributed a strong .290 BA and a .402 OBP. Once you factor in his .289 career BABIP and his .259 career average, it is not hard to predict a major regression in his predicted BA in 2015. However, now that he is in a more favorable Toronto hitter's park, Martin is very likely to trend significantly upwards in power production from the 11 HR's he hit with the Pirates last season. The 15-20 HR mark will not be too difficult to reach for Martin. He also sits in a far more dynamic lineup then the Pirate team he left so look for a positive impact on his overall counting stats. While his skill behind the plate may be the most important gain for the Blue Jays, Martin will post hitting numbers that will make him a worthy Mixed League starter. The increase in HR output alone will position him as a top ten fantasy catcher this season.
Around the League
Rougned Odor, (2B Texas Rangers) - Sweet Smell of Success
With Jurickson Profar missing his 2nd straight season with a shoulder injury, the highly talented Rougned Odor looks to man 2nd base for the Rangers. All you need to know about Odor is how he is viewed by the Rangers Management. When trade discussions involved the pitching rich Washington Nationals, it was rumored that he was at the top of their list. The pitching challenged Texas Front Office said he would not be moved under any circumstances. Odor hit .259/.297/.402 with nine home runs and 48 RBI in 114 games this past season as a rookie. Like all young players, he could certainly be more patient at the plate as he had only a 4% walk rate. And while he does not have exceptional bat speed, he makes contact well above the league average at 85%. Odor's .197 ISO at Double A suggests that he has some growth potential in his .142 ISO performance in 2014. Playing in a favorable Texas Hitters Park, there is no reason why Odor should not take a nice step forward in 2015. He is only 21, so a major breakout may be a year or so away, but I'd certainly invest in him.
Travis d'Arnaud, (C-NY Mets) - Catcher to Watch
It seems like every year a young catcher emerges from the pack and becomes a strong power source. In 2013 it was Jason Castro and in 2014 Devin Mesoraco. One of the best candidates for a similar breakout in 2015 is Travis d'Arnaud. After hitting just .217 in the first half of the season, he rebounded to bat .265 in the 2nd half with developing power. Eight of his 13 HR's were hit in July and August. D'Arnaud's ISO of .174 was comparable to Buster Posey and Brian McCann who both clubbed over 20 HR's. Entering his prime at 26, and with excellent contact skills, D'Arnaud has top 10 catcher potential and could outperform last year's darling Devin Mesoraco at a much more affordable price.
Nolan Arenado, (3B-Colorado Rockies) - Developing Star
Nolan Arenado presents an interesting opportunity this season. There seems to be two camps on Arenado...one that sees him dipping slightly outside of the top 10 3B and those like me who see tremendous upside potential and rank him inside the top 5. This will present a value opportunity in the draft for those of you who are willing to bet on his continued development. With a 409 foot average distance on HR, and an electric improvement in his OPS across all categories in 2014, I like everything about him. A .294 BABIP and an 84.7% contact rate suggest that his .287 BA in 2014 was legit. With injuries and illness robbing him of 40 games, he still clubbed 18 HR's in only 467 Plate Appearances. I'm not suggesting that he is a lock to maintain his .213 ISO, but he improved his FB% by 8 points in 2014 so a 20-25 HR season is not a stretch. Josh Donaldson is going 3 rounds earlier in ADP but I'd save my money and invest in Nolan Arenado.
David Wright, (3B-NY Mets) - Rebound Candidate
David Wright is dropping to the 8th round in many early drafts and no wonder. His 2014 season saw him produce only 8 HR's on a pitiful 8% HR/FB rate. On the surface, it clearly looks like a once very good player on a steady decline. But wait, the underlying statistics tell a different story. There was no drop in his bat speed in fact his 103.9 average in 2014 was his best in many years. His contact rate and batted ball distance have remained steady since a stellar 2012 season where he accumulated 64 extra base hits. What has changed is Wright has become more of a pull hitter and his HR spray chart demonstrates this clearly. This transition has happened gradually over the last two seasons. With the fences moving in again at Citifield this season, Wright is primed to rebound. Still only 32, we don't think he will return to the days of 30 HR's or high teens steals, but a simple regression to his 13.1% HR/FB career rate will mean 20+ HR's and a semblance of 2012 value when he hit .306 with 21 HR and 93 RBI's.
Chris Davis, (1B-Baltimore Orioles) - Rebound Candidate
Chris Davis fell off the cliff last year. He followed up on his monster 53 HR and 138 RBI 2013 campaign with a woeful performance in 2014 that saw him bat .196 and produce only 26 HR's. This kind of season will naturally put a bad taste in any owner's mouth who completely wasted a high draft pick for him. The residual effect for those of us who escaped his historic fall is a value opportunity. Much has been written about the impact of the shift that was increasingly used against him last season. A fall of almost 100 points in his BABIP from .336 in 2013 to .242 in 2014 is hard to blame completely on this defensive strategy. An examination of the spray charts in 2014 show that he continues to distribute the ball well. We can't discount that the shift has hurt Davis, but it appears that there was just as much bad luck involved. How much of a rebound we see this year will depend on his regaining some of the 3% loss in contact rate that he experienced in 2014. While he won't duplicate his .286 BA of 2013, I can't see him having another singles rate of .196. A return to a .250 BA is certainly possible and with that he could club 40 HR's. In an era where power is at a premium, a rebounding Davis should not escape your investment.
Gerrit Cole, (SP-Pittsburgh Pirates) - Breakout Candidate
Gerrit Cole has the makings of a front line starter and this year could be the year that he puts it all together. Injuries limited him to just 22 starts in 2014 but he still managed a 24.2% strikeout rate. He has an explosive fastball clocked at over 95 mph and an effective slider that he threw 13% of the time. His 9.5% swinging strike rate does not adequately reflect the quality of his stuff so he needs to make some adjustment to fully take advantage of his top flight arsenal. But at only 24, this overall number one draft pick in the 2011 June Amateur Draft has a great future ahead of him. He induces groundballs at nearly a 50% mark and a true breakout could occur if he could find a way to reduce his BB rate to below the 7% he produced last year. Coming off a strong 2nd half, where he significantly improved his walk rate, he delivered a .99 WHIP over his last nine games of the 2014 season. Cole's performance indicators are moving in a positive direction and I would not be surprised to see him reaching stardom this season.
Brandon Belt, (1B-SF Giants) - Next Step Up?
Brandon Belt started to show some of his promise in 2013 when he clubbed 17 HR and batted .289 in 150 games. His start in 2014 was electric and it appeared we were seeing a breakout season unfold. Unfortunately for Belt, injuries limited him to only 61 games but he still managed to hit 12 HR in 235 PA's. It is dangerous to simply extrapolate his HR production from last season over a full year, but he has the potential to produce a 25 HR's if he can stay healthy. He does not profile as a high average hitter with a 73% contact rate, so you will have to accept a BA more in the .260-.270 range. With the probability of producing 70+ RBI's and 5-10 SB's, his performance will rank him just outside the top 10 at 1B. His lack of pure bat speed may dampen his overall upside, but Belt is entering his prime at 26 years old. I'm betting that he has not reached his ceiling, so he could take that next step up at any time.
Bryce Harper (OF- Washington Nationals)-Breakout Candidate
There are few young ballplayers who arrived with the fanfare of Bryce Harper. However his brief career has been littered with injuries and disappointment. A thumb injury in April of last year precipitated some alarming trends last season including a serious spike in K rate, a big drop in ISO, and 5% drop in his contact rate. Despite all of this, most rank Harper as a certain top 20 OF this year and even some include him as high as 10. He is the prototypical high risk high reward player. But the most salient fact to me is that he is a very gifted hitter and still only 22. Most all of the negative trends of last season and the disappointing early career performances can be attributed to the assorted injuries that he has suffered. I am going to put my marker on a much improved season. Blessed with exceptional bat speed, Harper is more than capable of producing a .280/.360/.500 triple slash line that jumpstarts the career of this young star player.
Jason Kipnis (2B-Cleveland Indians) - Rebound Candidate
After a stellar 2013 season that saw Jason Kipnis emerge as a star at 2B, his .284/.366/.452 production with 30 steals took a decided downturn after an oblique injury cost him 30 games last season. His final line of .240/.310/.330 with 22 steals was a major disappointment to his owners. While his 2013 season BA was buttressed by a .345 BABIP, his overall performance was still an indicator of his potential. I'm not sure that he bounces back to the numbers he produced in 2013, but he certainly could produce a .270/.350/.420 line with 25 steals that would catapult him back into the ranks of the elite players at the 2B position. Remember he is only 28 and plays at a very thin 2B position. While his bat speed is only average, he makes good contact, walks at a career 10% rate, and is not prone to excessive strikeouts. With the ability to produce steals as part of his arsenal, Kipnis profiles as a strong rebound candidate in 2015.
Nelson Cruz, (OF-Seattle Mariners) - Caution: Safeco Speedbump
Can Nelson Cruz deliver the goods as the big right-handed bat in the lineup that the Seattle Mariners envisioned when they signed him to a 4 year $57M deal in the off-season? I think that Cruz will certainly help, but overall he will prove to be a bit disappointing. On the surface, he is coming off a great season with the Orioles where he jacked 40 HR's and drove in 108 while batting .271. The stars were certainly aligned for Cruz in 2014. His 40 HR's were a career high from a hitter who had only topped 30 once in his career. He played in 159 games in 2014, which was the 2nd time he accomplished this feat, but his next highest season total was 124 games. Now 34, and with an injury prone background, I can't see him duplicating his 2014 numbers. Furthermore, when he played with Texas, his career numbers batting in the Seattle ballpark were a very revealing .234/.309/.440. Cruz has the tools to hit HR's anywhere as he still has very good bat speed at 104.7 mph and his average HR distance is 402 feet. But a better hitter than Cruz, Robinson Cano, felt the sting of playing in Safeco for the first time last season and saw his HR total drop almost in half. I think a drop-off to 25-30 HR's for Cruz this season is a safer play. If he finishes with the .260/.320/.470 triple slash line it would be a fairly productive season for most players, but certainly not what Seattle fans were hoping for this year.
@stevietheshu
