Hunter Pence (OF-SF) - And here come the injuries. The Giants announced Thursday that they fear Pence has a broken forearm. No timetable had been established at the time this was written, but it's probably a safe bet that he'll be missing part of the season. Pence, who has played in at least 154 games in each of the last seven years, is one of baseball's more reliable and consistent players, but it looks as if the Giants' depth will be tested early. The team will likely use Gregor Blanco as a starter while Pence is out, with possibly Juan Perez and Justin Maxwell seeing a handful of at-bats. Pence is probably one of the easier players to forecast. He's going to hit .270-.280 with 20-25 home runs and 75-100 RBI in any given year. His EYE usually hovers in the .40 range, and he's aggressive enough that we can expect 10-15 stolen bases. Now though, we'll just wait to see how long he's out, but the probable replacements aren't exactly exciting. Edit: It is broken - 6-to-8 weeks for recovery.
Matt Cain (SP-SF) - Good news on Cain this week, as manager Bruce Bochy hinted that Cain could appear in a game this week, which is a bit earlier than the previous mid-March timeframe. Cain of course is recovering from a pair of offseason surgeries (ankle and bone chips in the elbow), but he's expected to be ready to go by the start of the season. At 30, Cain should still have plenty left in the tank, but there is a good chance that 2012 will be his peak season. Cain's innings have declined in each of the last four years and his HR, BB and K ratios have regressed in each of the last two. There's still #3 starter material here, but don't expect a sub-3.00 ERA and 190 strikeouts again any time soon.
Hector Rondon (RP-DET) - After sitting out all of 2014 recovering from Tommy John surgery, Rondon is close to making his spring debut in actual game action. When we last saw him in 2013, Rondon was posting a 3.45 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with a 9.4 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. He has some 12 and 13 K/9 seasons on the books in the minors, and in 2013, Rondon averaged a whopping 99.3 mph with this fastball. If he can get most/all of that back with a solid slider, Rondon could put himself in the closer mix at some point this year. Joe Nathan looks to be close to retirement, though Rondon would also have to leapfrog Joakim Soria and perhaps Joba Chamberlain for saves.
Mike Olt (3B-CHC) - In what may be his last shot at showing that he deserves to start somewhere, Olt is competing with Tommy La Stella to keep third base warm for Kris Bryant. Of course Bryant could still be the Opening Day starter if the Cubs elect to bypass the financial advantages of starting him in Triple-A, but perhaps Olt can show enough to improve his trade value, or perhaps the Cubs will put Bryant in the outfield. The latter seems unlikely, but Olt did hit a two-run homer in Thursday's game against Barry Zito who is trying to make a comeback with his old team, the A's. Olt hit .160/.248/.356 in 258 PA's for the Cubs last year, but he did hit .263/.370/.368 in a late-season stint, so perhaps there's still hope.
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Yu Darvish (SP-TEX) - We won't panic just yet, but the news that Darvish was pulled from Thursday's game after 12 pitches due to forearm tightness is fairly concerning. Elbow issues limited Darvish to just 22 starts last year, so this something that while it may not be said to be serious, it's concerning enough to me to drop Darvish significantly in my SP rankings. To where I previously slotted him in the low end of my top-10 starting pitchers, I'd probably drop him 10 slots if I were drafting today. Maybe the news will be more positive later in the week, but why take a chance on Darvish in the 4th round? Too early. He's obviously and elite starter when healthy, as his career 11.2 K/9 is elite SP stuff, and he's done a good job dropping his BB rate from 4.2/9 as a rookie to 3.1 last year. Cross your fingers.
Luis Valbuena (3B-HOU) - The Cubs helped ease their glut of position players this winter, dealing Valbuena to the Astros where he is competing with Matt Dominguez for time at third base. It should be interesting to see what the Astros do here, as it's clear that Dominguez has the better glove and Valbuena more upside at the plate. The latter was on display Thursday as Valbuena went 2-for-2 with a home run playing third base against the Phillies. The 29 year-old Valbuena has never had a season of 500+ at-bats, due in part to his struggles against LHP and the fact he's struggled to hit for much of an average. Valbuena does draw a fair share of walks having posted an EYE of .84 in 2013 and .58 last year. I would look for him to get 400+ at-bats again this year, perhaps playing third and some second base.
Alex Colome (SP-TB) - The Rays are seemingly always turning over their rotation due to financial constraints, and this year is no exception. Colome is being viewed currently as the frontrunner for the No. 5 starter job even though he's yet to make it from the Dominican Republic to Florida for camp. He's throwing though, and the reports are good on his progress. Colome, 26, finished 2014 strong with 13 innings of shutout ball in his final two starts with a 10:2 K:BB, averaging 94.2 mph with his fastball in the big leagues. Colome's big league arrival has been delayed by control issues, but if he can get to cam (visa issues) and work on that piece, there is some upside to his game.
ChN/P: Travis Wood (SP-CHC) - Wood got an early leg up on the competition for the Cubs' No. 5 starter job Thursday, retiring all six hitters he faced against the A's. Wood is recovering from a 2014 season in which in 31 starts, he saw his ERA spike from the prior year's 3.11 to an awful 5.03 to go with a 1.53 WHIP. A 70-point spike in BABIP was one of the culprits, but some of this is on Wood as well, as his BB/9 jumped from 3.0 to 3.9. If Wood can beat out the likes of Edwin Jackson and Tsuyoshi Wada for the No. 5 starter job, he'll need to control the free passes to have any sort of fantasy relevance.
Peter O'Brien (C-ARI) - O'Brien may have a leg up on this job after going 2-for-3 on Thursday and generally drawing excellent reviews in camp. Of course the fact his "competition" consists of Gerald Laird, Tuffy Gosewich, and Oscar Hernandez doesn't hurt his chances. It's pretty surprising that the Diamondbacks didn't bring in a more established catcher after shipping Miguel Montero to the Cubs, but this is what we have. O'Brien hit .245/.296/.555 in Double-A after coming over from the Yankees a year ago, but what fantasy owners salivate over are the 34 home runs. With a 28% K%, O'Brien may struggle to hit much more than .230 in the big leagues, at least initially, but that could come with 20+ home runs right away. He's definitely worth a flier in NL-only leagues.
Mike Minor (SP-ATL) - The fact that Minor is already dealing with a sore shoulder and is visiting the infamous Dr. James Andrews is concerning to say the least. We saw similar shoulder issues last spring, and the net result was Minor missing the first month of the season. The net result was that 2014 was a clear step back for the left-hander, whose ERA rose from 3.21 in 2013 to last year's 4.77. His 7.4 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 weren't bad at all, but they were also steps back from his strong 2013. This year, who knows, but it's not off to a good start. If you're wondering who might step in should Minor open on the DL, there were already four candidates for the final rotation spot, so those four would presumably compete for two slots. Mike Foltynewicz is a flame-throwing rookie with the most upside, while Manny Banuelos' star has fallen, but he still has back-of-the-rotation type stuff. Wandy Rodriguez and Eric Stults are the other two, but they offer very little appeal given their lack of strikeouts. Foltynewicz is the interesting guy here if he can shake off some concerns around his control.
Giants - SF/T: Giants - Second Base
There seems to be little doubt that Joe Panik will be the team's second baseman, but if you're in a very deep league, you may want to keep an eye on Matt Duffy. Duffy batted a surprising .332/.398/.444 laste year for Double-A Richmond, swiping 20 bases and posting a 10.1% BB%. He did walk just once in 60 MLB PA's last year, but Duffy profiles as a guy who can post a solid OBP and steal a few bases. Panik hit .305/.343/.368 with one home run in 287 PA's for the Giants last year, but with one homer and no steals, his fantasy value is less than his real-life value to be sure. Duffy probably has to hope for a utility job to make the Opening Day roster, but in time, perhaps he gets a look should Panik struggle.
Rockies - Col/T: Rockies - Is Corey Dickerson a potential superstar?
Or is he already one? I get asked about Dickerson a lot, and coming off a .312/.364/.567 breakout, I can understand. The skepticism comes a bit from Dickerson having this breakout in 131 games at the age of 25 after an excellent minor league career didn't get him a ton of love from the prospect community. The usual "Pacific Coast League is a hitter's league" caveats apply, but Dikcerson really put himself on the map after batting .371/.414/.632 there in 2013 followed by a .775 OPS in 69 games with the Rockies that year. Dickerson destroyed RHP, but also a decent but unspectacular .253/.306/.418 against LHP. That's something that could continue to allow Drew Stubbs for example to steal playing time from either Dickerson or Charlie Blackmon, and like many Rockies, his Home/Road splits are pretty extreme, as he OPS'd a whopping 363 points better at home than on the road. I still have my concerns, but if you are in daily leagues and can mix and match your lineup, Dickerson's value is even that much higher.
Giants - SF/T: Giants - Brandon Belt's breakout year?
The Giants lineup and rotation are pretty much set entering spring training, but one thing we have to wonder about is Brandon Belt. I predicted a breakout last year, only to see Belt get hurt and bat just .243/.306/.449 in 61 games. Even with that line being poor however, that is still a solid .206 ISO, and while his K% spiked to 27.3% and his EYE dropped from 0.42 to 0.28, Belt is still easily young enough to reverse those declines. Belt encouragingly hit LHP better than RHP last year, so we don't have to worry about a platoon, though on occasion, he seems likely to sit in favor of Buster Posey. The thumb injury that plagued him last year should be healed, and assuming the concussion symptoms are a thing of the past, Belt is another pick of mine (again) to have a breakout season.
Rockies - Col/T: Rockies - How about Charlie Culberson as the starter at 2B?
Batting second, Culberson was 2-for-3 with a double and run scored in Thursday's game against Arizona. With competition consisting of DJ LeMahieu and Daniel Descalso among the less than desirable options, perhaps Culberson could sneak in and steal this job. He'll need a lot more days like this of course after batting a paltry .195/.253/.290 in 233 PA's for the Rockies a year ago, but if he were to win the job, Culberson can run a little and pop the occasional home run. Some of his minor league EYE's are a bit scary however (.17, .26, and .23), but any hitter logging at-bats in Coors Field have to be looked at.
Dodgers - LAN/T: Dodgers Closer
We walked through this last week in the wake of the news that Kenley Jansen would be likely out until May with a foot injury. The candidates to fill in would seem to include Joel Peralta (if the shoulder is 100%), J.P. Howell (job share candidate), Pedro Baez (long shot), and Chris Hatcher (dark horse). The guy we didn't mention was Brandon League. League has reportedly given up alcohol in an attempt to be healthier and more productive during the year, though it's hard to put too much stock into these types of stories. Let's see the results first. The results were solid on Thursday, as League tossed a 1-2-3 third inning against the White Sox, striking out one. League's 2.57 ERA last year was a bit misleading, as his ratios were poor - 5.4 K/9, 3.9 BB/9. Incredibly, in his 63 innings, League generated 4.6 ground balls per fly ball, allowing him to allow zero home runs all year after he gave up eight the year before. I think you have to put him in the closer mix.
Dodgers - LAN/T: Dodgers Center Field
I'll probably say this a lot as I write up until Opening Day, but it's still early. That said, it's hard to not be impressed with Joc Pederson so far. Through two games, Pederson is 3-for-4 while competitor Andre Ethier is 0-for-2 with a pair of strikeouts and an unimpressive performance in center. We mentioned that Pederson was favored to win the job before the games even started, and while it's just two games, he's probably widened the gap even further. Pederson detractors will point to his 26.9% Triple-A K%, but he also had a .929 OPS and went 30/30. Perhaps more importantly, Pederson is the organization's best defender in center field, something that should give him plenty of rope once his bat suffers the inevitable cooling off period. Prediction: he wins the job, hits .265/.340/.440 with 18 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and competes for the NL ROY award.
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