Justin Verlander (SP-DET). Verlander is questionable both to make his next spring start and to be ready for his first start of the regular season after being lifted from his most recent start with soreness in his triceps. While this is not an area of the arm that usually leads to serious injury, this setback is one more in a long line of reasons to avoid Verlander. Coming off of a year in which he posted a hideous (in this era of suppressed offense at least) and lost another full MPH off his fastball velocity, while striking out only 6.95 batters per 9, Verlander is firmly planted on my "avoid at all costs" list. While there is some reason to believe that Verlander could improve on his 2014 numbers, given that he did suffer from some bad luck (as evidenced by his 66.8% strand rate and .319 BABIP), even taking that into consideration, his 2014 xFIP was still a less than mediocre 4.19. That might be an acceptable ERA if Verlander were still striking out close to 9 batters per 9, but without those Ks, Verlander verges on undraftable in standard mixed leagues. Nor are Verlander's spring numbers especially encouraging - he has put up a 5.63 ERA over 16 innings, with a disturbing 10:6 K:BB ratio. Add to all of the foregoing the possibility that Verlander will not be ready for the start of the season, and it is clear that Verlander is (probably due to name recognition factors) being overdrafted, even at his current 19th round ADP.
Yoenis Cespedes (OF-DET). Cespedes is a player who seems to be flying a bit under the radar this spring, as he is being drafted behind Starling Marte and Billy Hamilton, among others. This is likely the result of some form of "prospect fatigue" as well as the perceived downgrade in value resulting from playing half of his games in Tiger Stadium instead of Fenway. However, Cespedes managed a .260 BA with 22 HR and 100 RBI despite playing two-thirds of the season in Oakland, which is even more pitcher-friendly than Detroit, and he is now sitting in the middle of a much more potent lineup. Also, Cespedes improved his contact rate from 73% to 80% last season, but this gain was somewhat masked by a fairly steep drop in Cespedes' HR/FB rate (which may have been caused by a hamstring injury). Assuming that the HR/FB rate returns to previously-established levels, we like Cespedes to return to his previously-established HR levels, while maintaining or bettering his .260 BA from last year, and project him to put up a .273/27/95 line, making him a great value at his current ADP of 65.
J.D. Martinez (OF-DET). While his teammate Cespedes appears to be somewhat undervalued, Martinez is being somewhat overvalued. While he had a spectacular 2014 after being released by the Astros and picked up by the Tigers, hitting .315 with 23 HRs over 480 PAs, he will almost certainly not be able to match those numbers in 2015. The batting average was supported by a .389 BABIP that is not sustainable and Martinez' HR/FB rate of 19.5% was roughly 6% higher than his career rate. Those anticipating an increase in HRs given a full season's worth of plate appearances are likely to be disappointed (we project Martinez for 22 HR over 500 ABs) and the batting average is sure to fall, likely to somewhere around Martinez' .272 career average. As long as Martinez is acquired for a cost/draft position that takes these likely outcomes into account (which may not be possible, given his current ADP of 108) , he makes for a fine acquisition, as his counting stats should be improved, given a full season in the solid Detroit lineup.
Micah Johnson (2B-CHA). I would like to follow up on Kyle's post in the Sunday blog and jump on the Micah Johnson bandwagon. Ranked as the White Sox' 9th best prospect by Baseball Prospectus, Johnson had a solid, but not spectacular 2014 season in the minors, despite being hampered by a nagging hamstring injury. Johnson hit .294 between AA and AAA with 5 HR and 22 SBs. The average was aided by a probably unsustainable .385 BABIP in AA, but his .315 BABIP in AAA (which produced a .275 BA) is probably not an unreasonable expectation for Johnson in 2015, given his speed. Johnson does have some plate discipline issues, as his walk rate plummeted from 12.4% in AA to 5.3% in AAA and, as Kyle pointed out, he is striking out at a 25% clip so far this spring. Despite the strikeout issues, though, Johnson has still put up a very solid .347/.396/.490 slash this spring, with 1 HR and 3 SBs. Although he has not officially been named the starter at 2B for the White Sox, manager Robin Ventura indicated that Johnson is the "front-runner" for the position. As such, makes a good target as a cheap source of speed at a difficult to fill position. Keep in mind, though, that he is likely to bat 9th in the Chicago order, which will likely hamper his counting stats.
Carlos Rodon (SP(?)- CHA). Rodon, the White Sox' first round draft choice in 2014, appears to be on the fast track to the majors, although due to service time considerations, it is doubtful that he will break camp with the club. Despite the likelihood that he starts the season in the minors, he is a recommended stash in leagues with deep benches that permit the stashing of minor leaguers, because it seems unlikely that, given their contention aspirations this year, the Sox will want to put up with Hector Noesi as their fifth starter for any extended period of time. Rodon impressed in a short stint in the minors last year, as he posted an K rate in excess of 13.5/9 in 21.2 innings split between High-A and AAA. He has continued to impress this spring, striking out 19 over 12.1 innings, while walking only 3. His spring ERA is a little high at 3.65, but that is likely attributable to the desert air. There is definitely some risk in burning a roster spot on Rodon (I suppose it's possible that Noesi finally puts it all together and it's also possible the White Sox use Rodon in a relief role when he is called up), but the strikeout upside here is immense and I will definitely be stashing Rodon wherever possible.
Adam Eaton (OF-CHA). Eaton was one of my favorite acquisition targets last year, and although he disappointed in the power department (only 1 HR), he still has the potential to provide solid value in 2015. While Eaton's career 59% GB rate means he will never hit for a lot of power, he should still be good for more than 1 HR in 2015, as his 1.3% HR/FB is ridiculously low. He should also score more runs at the top of what should be an improved White Sox lineup. Finally, he has reportedly been putting in extra time to improve his stolen base success rate. We project Eaton to hit .290, with 86 runs scored 7 HR and 22 SBs. His career .350 OBP makes him especially valuable in OBP formats. All-in-all Eaton is a great value at his current 23rd round ADP, and is an underrated commodity as a back-end OF, providing solid numbers in 3 of the five offensive categories.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Carlos Martinez (SP-STL). With the news that Jaime Garcia will start the season on the DL, it appears that Martinez will be the Cardinals 5th starter when the season begins. Now that he is assured of a rotation spot, Martinez becomes a must add in all but the shallowest formats, given the electric stuff he possesses. Although he posted pedestrian numbers pitching mainly out of the bullpen the last two years for the Cardinals, in 2013 at AAA (the last time he pitched regularly as a starter), he put up a 2.51 ERA and a 8.34 K/9. Martinez has also suffered from some bad luck in the majors, as his 4.03 ERA last year was inflated by a .333 BABIP and a 71.5% strand rate. I would expect Martinez' ERA this year to be closer to his 3.54 xFIP from 2014. In fact, our software projects Martinez' ERA to be 3.60, with the added bonus of a 9.3 K/9 rate. That would make him a steal given his current ADP of 280.
Odubel Herrera (2B/OF-PHI). Phillies' manager Ryne Sandberg indicated that Herrera, a Rule 5 pick, will likely open the season as the Phillies's starting CF. Although Herrera has no power (only 2 HR in 545 PAs split between high-A and AA last year), he does bring some speed to the table (21 SBs between his two stops) and he likely carries 2B eligibility in most leagues, as that is where he played in the minors. Given that he will now start the season in the starting lineup, Herrera is worth consideration as an end game play in NL-only leagues for those in need of speed at the MI position.
Michael Taylor (OF-WAS). With Denard Span likely to be out of action until at least mid-May, Taylor becomes worthy of strong consideration in all but the shallowest of mixed leagues. In 493 PAs between AA and AAA in 2014, Taylor hit .304, with 23 HR and 37 SBs. While that average is not likely to translate to the majors, given Taylor's plus 25% K-rate, the power speed combination is enticing, and Taylor should get regular playing time at least until Span returns. Even after that, he is likely to receive a decent amount of playing time, given the age of Jayson Werth and the propensity of Bryce Harper to injure himself. It would not be unrealistic to expect a 15/15 season out of Taylor, albeit with a likely sub-.250 BA. That will play in most deeper formats.
Kris Bryant (3B-CHN). That sound you just heard was Scott Boras' head exploding, as the Cubs optioned Bryant to AAA on Monday. Bryant's stay in the minors is likely to be short, as the Cubs only need to keep him in the minors for about two weeks in order to obtain an additional year of team control, so this news shouldn't affect your valuation of Bryant. Even with the likely two week sabbatical, our software projects a .263/25/78 line for Bryant in 2015, which is certainly worth having, even if you have to find a fill-in for the first two weeks of the season.
Javier Baez (2B-CHN). The Cubs also optioned Baez to AAA on Monday. Unlike Bryant's demotion, this one was motivated not by service time concerns, but rather by performance-related issues. Baez has hit a rough .173/.218/.231 this spring, with a 20:3 K:BB ratio in 52 ABs. Baez clearly has not conquered the plate discipline issues he experienced after being called up to the majors last year. Unlike Bryant, I think this news should affect when (or if) you draft Baez. Baez is currently going off the board ahead of 2B such as Chase Utley, Brett Lawrie and Jedd Gyorko. Given the uncertainty as to when Baez will be able to get control of his propensity to strikeout, which one assumes will have to happen before the Cubs will call him back up, I would rather have any of the listed options ahead of Baez right now in a redraft league.
Arismendy Alcantara (2B/OF-TB). Baez' loss is Alcantara's gain, as Alcantara figures to see much more playing time at the keystone with Baez in the minors. Although he is theoretically competing for time with Tommy LaStella, LaStella's lack of upside should mean that Alcantara gets the lion's share of the PT. We project Alcantara to hit .259 with 14 HR and 14 SBs, which is good production from a weak position. Assuming he holds onto the job (which is no guarantee, because Alcantara has his own issues with making contact), Alcantara could be a steal at his current 29th round ADP.
Ian Kennedy (SP-SD). Kennedy fired six scoreless innings against the Reds on Monday. Kennedy is having a solid spring, with a 3.78 ERA (not bad considering the Cactus League hitting environment) and 16 Ks over 16.2 innings. Kennedy should provide solid SP3 value in 2015, given his 3.21 FIP and 3.44 xFIP in 2014. We expect Kennedy to put up similar numbers in 2015, as we project him for a 3.58 ERA and a K rate of over a strikeout an inning.
Pedro Alvarez (1B/3B - PIT). Alvarez had himself a day against the Phillies on Monday, hitting 2 HR and driving in 6. Alvarez, is now slashing .325/.349/.750 on the spring, with 4 HR and 15 RBI. Alvarez's disappointing 2014 season was marred by both injury (which cost Alvarez the last month and a half) and bad batted ball luck (.277 BABIP in 2014 versus career BABIP of .295). Alvarez actually improved his plat discipline, reducing his K% from % in 2013 to 25.4% in 2014, while raising his BB% from 7.8% to 10.1% over that same time span. Additionally, Alvarez should benefit from the reduced fielding pressure that comes with the move across the diamond to 1B. We like Alvarez gto bounceback with a .258 BA and 22 HR. Keep in mind, though, that Alvarez could lose playing time to Corey Hart against LHP, which is one of the things keeping the HR projection down.
Brian Anderson (SP-LAN). Anderson tossed six scoreless innings against the DBacks on Monday, lowering his spring ERA to 2.13. If Anderson can somehow manage to stay healthy (which, admittedly he has failed to do for four years running), he has a chance to return significant fantasy value in 2015, given the favorable pitching environment he now finds himself in. Perhaps something along the lines of the 2.57 ERA he registered in his injury-shortened 2012 season. Anderson's mediocre K rate (7.09 career K/9) limits him to a back of the rotation option in mixed leagues, but, if healthy, he has mid-rotation potential in NL-only leagues.
Yasmany Tomas (3B?-ARI). The Diamondbacks are now floating the possibility that Tomas could be sent to the minors to start the season. While he has managed a respectable .276/.333/.448 line in spring training, his fielding issues at 3B and the team's desire to lessen the pressure on him could lead to at least a short stint in the minors to start the year. This is a situation that bears watching, as it will be difficult for Tomas to live up to his current 187 ADP if he starts the season in the minors (it should also be noted that he does not initially qualify at 3B on some platforms). Aramis Ramirez and Pedro Alvarez, who are being drafted an average of two rounds later, are probably better gambles at this point.
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