Chicago Cubs
Jorge Soler - Lets talk about Soler power. No, not solar power, but (Jorge) Soler's power. Overshadowed by teammate and mega prospect, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler has quietly put together an impressive Spring Training. Through 15 games, the Cubs right fielder is slashing .333/.380/.600 with 3 homeruns, 10 RBIs, a double and a triple. With an 8% walk rate and an 18% strikeout rate, Soler's approach at the plate can't quite be considered advanced, but it's certainly better than Javier Baez's 33% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate. So we should be jumping all over him, right? Not so fast. In his first year in the majors, Soler burst onto the scene with a fantastic .281 ISO. Interestingly, the right-handed Soler actually struggled against lefties (.295 wOBA) while he clobbered right handed-pitchers (.412 wOBA). While this is strange, the weirdest thing about Soler's statistics last year actually lay within his batted ball data. Amazingly, he managed to maintain a .339 BABIP despite hitting line drives just 11.9% and ground balls 52.2% of the time. Soler has modest speed, but he doesn't have nearly enough speed to support his high BABIP given his high frequency of ground balls. Further causing me to be concerned was the 20.8% HR/FB rate, which while it's not impossible to reach for a player with his power potential, it's difficult to envision him repeating with a pedestrian batted ball speed of 103.4 MPH on his homeruns last year (according to ESPN's home run hit tracker). So while I believe Soler certainly has the untapped raw power within him, I think we're going to need to wait at least another year before crowning him the next Giancarlo Stanton.
Cubs Bullpen - Lets talk a bit about the Cubs rebuilt bullpen. Long ignored by management during the rebuilding process, the Cubs bullpen is finally starting to look like a contender. Headlined by Hector Rondon, the Cubbies have a slew of middle relievers who all either have previous closing experience or they have the raw ability you like to look for in late-inning relievers. Pedro Strop, Neil Ramirez, and Jason Motte make up the set-up group and any one of those three could step in to the 9th inning and close the door on a Hector Rondon day off. Jason Motte has the ever-sought-after previous experience but he's probably the least skilled of the group. Rondon, Strop and Ramirez each have a K-BB rate exceeding 18% and Ramirez and Strop each have elite swinging strike rates of 13.3% and 15.5%, respectively. From a fantasy perspective, Rondon has the skill set to be able to hold on to the job and keep it. Unless you're in a holds league, the other three probably won't hold much value for the 2015 season. Fortunately, the quality bullpen in Chicago bode swell for owners who are grabbing Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta for their fantasy teams because it improves their chances at a win.
Kansas City Royals:
Edison Volquez (SP - KCC) - Volquez already has a starting job locked up despite a rocky spring, but he had a nice confidence booster against the Cubs on Sunday. Volquez fanned 8 batters over 5 innings of work while yielding just 2 earned runs and walking just one. Looking only at the surface stats from 2014, Volquez looks like an enticing value while pitching in the cozy Kauffman Stadium. Don't fall for that trap, however, as there is very little to be optimistic about with Volquez in his age-31 season. Volquez has suffered 5 straight years of declining swinging strike rate paired with 5 straight years of increasing contact rates from opposing batters. While the ERA was great last season (3.04), his xFIP was predictably worse at 4.20. Steer clear of Volquez.
Kendrys Morales (DH - KCC) - Replacing a hometown hero is never easy but thats exactly what Kendrys Morales is going to have to do this year as he fills the void left by Billy Butler. If Morales produces in the regular season the same way he has produced in the Spring, the Kansas City fans won't even remember what BillyButler looked like as he struggled to run down to first base. So far this spring, Morales has 3 homeruns and is slashing .306/.326/.532. Morales' bat speed has been solid, but not great lately. Over the last 3 seasons, he has averaged 103.8 MPH on his homeruns with an average distance of 401.5 feet. The move to Kansas City won't do him any favors but I'm still expecting a bounceback to his homerun totals this year after his HR/FB rate dropped down to 7.9% while his career average is 15.2%. Morales is currently going in the 28th round, which could prove to be a nice value for a player with 20 homerun potential.
San Diego Padres:
Wil Myers (OF - SD) - According to Padres beat writer Corey Brock, Manager Bud Black confirmed that Wil Myers has been taking groundballs at first base during workout drills. If Myers gains first base eligibility, it obviously adds some nice value thanks to versatility but it also opens the door to potentially more playing time for Cameron Maybin or Will Venable down the road. A wrist injury caused Myers to miss a big chunk of time last year and unfortunately, wrist injuries are known to cause issues with a player's power. Fortunately, Myers has shown decent pop this spring hitting 2 homeruns and 4 doubles. Myers has substantially more appeal in keeper leagues but he can be a sneaky source of value where he's going in the 15th round.
Will Middlebrooks (3B - SD) - Finally healthy, Will Middlebrooks has been absolutely scorching this spring training. While nothing has been announced by Bud Black, Middlebrooks will likely be the Padres starting second baseman, pushing Yangervis Solarte to a back-up role. MIddlebrooks battled a myriad of injuries during his time in Boston which contributed to the deflated stats he posted after his rookie year. After breaking into the bigs with a .221 ISO is 2012, he posted a .198 in 2013 and just .074 last year. On the promising side, the line drive rate he posted last year was 5% higher than league average but he also posted a terrible 18% infield fly ball rate. Middlebrooks has slashed .333/.400/.511 this spring and has deservedly won the job but before he can be trusted in mixed leagues, he's going to need to show that he can flash the power he showed in the first two years in Boston.
Around the League:
Andrew Heaney (SP - LAA) - After allowing 6 runs on Sunday, Andrew Heaney is being sent down to Triple-A, at least to begin the year. The Angels won't need a fifth starter for at least a week so Heaney will likely have a shot to re-join the team in mid-April. Through 4 spring starts, Heaney did little to impress his new team after posting an 8.36 ERA and an ugly 1.93 WHIP. After a lackluster major league debut last year, a lot of the shine faded off him as a top tier pitching prospect. The Angels acquired him this off-season as pack of the 3-way trade that sent Dee Gordon to the Marlins and Howie Kendrick to the Dodgers. The poor debut might not have been all within Heaney's control, however, and there might still be a little value here for owners who grab him as a late round flier. Heaney was burned by the long ball (6 homeruns in 29 innings pitched) but his HR/FB ratio was an inflated 18% which leads me to expect some positive movement there. Also, his 15.9% strikeout ratio is about 3-4% lower than what you typically expect to see from a pitcher who flashed a 9.6% swinging strike rate. Overall, I like Heaney to have a bit of a bounceback year but he's going to need to prove to the Angels that he deserves a spot in the rotation first.
Edward Mujica (CL - BOS) - A day after it was revealed that Koji Uehara would likely begin the year on the DL, manager John Farrell officially named Edward Mujica the interim closer. And with that, let the closer carousel begin. Mujica was successful as the Cardinals closer a few years ago but he wasn't great while filling in for Uehara last season. Mujica succeeds by locating his pitches and limiting his walks. He's more of a pitch-to-contact pitcher than a guy who will blow a fastball by you but the point remains that he's going to be the closer of the Boston Red Sox and that alone gives him mixed league value.
Shelby Miller (SP - ATL) - If you take out Shelby Miller's first start of the spring, the new Brave would be sporting a 1.50 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP after twirling 6 innings of 1-run ball on Sunday. Miller had a season to forget a year ago for the Cardinals but a new environment might be just what he needs to regain the form he flashed in the minor leagues. At just 24 years old, Miller is still extremely young, has one of the best fastballs in the league and solid secondary options with his cutter and impressive curveball. Miller wasn't fooling batters last year, posting a chase rate that was 5% below league average and a swinging strike rate that came in 2% lower than league average. Ideally, the Braves will help him develop a change-up to keep hitters off-balance and guessing. If there's a team that can fix a starting pitcher, it's Atlanta.
Kendall Graveman (SP - OAK) - Billy Beane and the A's just have a way of manufacturing talent. It was Jesse Sanchez last year and this year it looks like it's going to be Kendall Graveman. Through 5 spring starts, the 24 year-old right-hander has allowed just one earned run and 10 hits while striking out 11 and walking 4. While the strikeout rate leaves much to be desired, the 0.66 WHIP is hard to ignore. Previously in the Blue Jays system, Graveman has flashed above average control throughout the minor leagues and has done a fantastic job at keeping the the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 2 homeruns over 4 levels and 160 innings pitched last year. He's a nice late round flier in deeper leagues.
Taijuan Walker (SP - SEA) - It doesn't come as much of a surprise but it looks like Taijuan Walker will be the final piece of Seattle's rotation to start the season after Roenis Elias was optioned to Triple-A on Sunday. Walker has always had a big arm but a shoulder injury last year in the spring caused him to miss time at the beginning of the spring and then struggled with his command later in the year, posting a walk rate of 11%, nearly 4% higher than the league average. Hopefully it was just a blip on the radar for Walker, who struggled with command early in his career in the minor leagues before settling down and posting at 6.7% walk rate in 2013. There's a lot to like about Taijuan, starting with his 94 MPH fastball and high groundball tendencies. Through 5 starts this spring, Walker has yet to allow any runs and has allowed just 6 hits to go along with 19 strikeouts. He's primed as a breakout candidate in 2015.
Daniel Hudson (SP - ARI) - Remember him? Coming back from his second Tommy John surgery, Daniel Hudson has already made the Diamondbacks 25-man roster but he's now competing for a spot in their rotation. This spring Hudson has started 3 games (although he has appeared in 4 games and thrown 10.2 IP) with a 4.22 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He has also struck out 8 batters while walking 4. The command problems aren't a surprise since control is usually the last thing to come back for a pitcher recovering from this type of surgery but the strikeouts are certainly a positive sign. Before getting injured, Hudson had an above average swinging strike rate and walk rate. He was once a rising star and a well-thought about prospect. If he ends up winning a job in the rotation, he deserves being monitored to see if he can maintain his command enough to return value.
Micah Johnson (2B - CWS) - One of the hottest hitters in the Cactus League, Micah Johnson has already secured the second base gig for the White Sox. Johnson's now hitting .347/.396/.490 on the spring with a homerun and 6 RBI. Johnson hasn't flashed any power in the minor leagues and hitting in the bottom half of the White Sox won't help his RBI totals but with decent speed, he could rack up a good amount of steals and runs. He's an appropriate target for your MI slot later in drafts this spring.
Joc Pederson (OF - LAD) - Let the hype train keep building for the Dodgers' top outfield prospect. After the Dodgers traded Matt Kemp this off-season, it opened the door for Joc Pederson to take over full-time in centerfield. Already a polished defender, Pederson has been flashing his skills with the bat this spring. On Sunday, Pederson hit his 6th homerun and 12th RBI to go along with his .389 batting average. Pederson's projected to hit 7th, which isn't ideal for his value, but there's enough fire power in the Dodgers lineup that he should find enough protection. Don't forget that he hit 30 homeruns and 30 stolen bases last season at Triple-A.
Michael Taylor (OF - WAS)- Michael Taylor had a nice day at the plate, going 3-for-3 for a homerun and a double. Taylor has a nice opportunity to show the Nationals what he can do while Denard Span is on the shelf for the first few weeks of the season. . With a strong on-base percentage in the minor leagues, Taylor has a chance to bat leadoff for the Nationals to start the year. If he can lock up a gig at the top of the order, he's an intriguing flyer off the waiver wire or late in drafts with a high-powered Nationals middle-of-the-order behind him. Expect modest power with nice speed. He could easily be on pace for a 20/20 season after the first month of action.
Bryce Harper (OF - WAS) - Will this finally be the year that Bryce Harper breaks out? Judging by his spring stats, he already looks to be in mid-season form. With a ridiculous .278/.458/.556 line that is fueled by a fantastic 12 walks, Harper looks like he has adjusted his approach at the plate and is being more patient, something he struggled to do last year. Harper has 3 homeruns and a solid 12 RBIs through just 36 at-bats this spring. Harper's biggest obstacle is himself and he'll need to control his own recklessness if he hopes to remain healthy for a full-year. If he can do that, he could put together a 1st round-caliber season.
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