Archie Bradley and As The Diamonbacks' Rotation Turns
A day after general manager Dave Stewart declared that Bradley wasn't "Major League Ready," the former top pitching prospect tossed 4 solid innings, allowing 2 unearned runs on 5 hits while striking out 3 with 0 free passes. 2014 was a rough season for Bradley, as he posted a 75:49 K:BB ratio through 83 innings in the minors while continually struggling through pestering arm injuries. Manager Chip Hale continues to like what he sees, lauding Bradley's improved curveball and aggressiveness in the strike zone and suggesting, despite Dave Stewart's comments, that Bradley is still in the hunt for a rotation spot. While there are a plethora of options for Hale to consider in filling the back of the rotation--Blair, Shipley, Webster, Cahill, and De La Rosa--be sure to track Bradley over the next two weeks. He has the pedigree and the weapons to deliver value.
The Diamondbacks' Bullpen Slithering Into April
If we trust what the player tells us, then Addison Reed should be good-to-go by opening day. "There is no doubt in my mind. I still feel like 100 percent I'm going to be ready by then," Reed said to MLB.com this past week. Chip Hale oversaw Reed's latest bullpen on Friday, describing it positively and indicating that Reed should be able to get into game action after one more successful session in the pen. While this is all pointing in the right direction, anytime you hear about a pitcher altering his mechanics in order to alleviate stress on his shoulder, it generates cause for concern. Reed has been attempting to throw less violently across his body, which could be challenging to repeat in an actual game. I liked Reed before this shoulder injury hit, as he was a bit unfortunate last season with an inflated 13.9% HR/FB rate while elevating his swinging strike rate to 13.1% and his strikeouts-minus-walks mark to 21.4%. With news of the injury and the mechanical issues, I highly recommend handcuffing him with Evan Marshall, who currently appears to be the last man standing in the DBacks pen.
Ryan May Be Goins to the Bench
Devon Travis: remember the name. The man who came over from the Tigers in the Anthony Gose trade has stretched the second base competition with Ryan Goins into late March. In 100 AA games last season Travis posted a .298/358/.460 line with 10 homers, 16 steals, and a respectable 37:60 K:BB ratio. While many gave Goins the slight edge in the race because of his defensive prowess, evaluators suggest the gap in defense isn't as large as many believed. Travis is 13-for-36 this spring on the offensive end; coupled with visions of Ryan Goins .212 wOBA (.212!) from a year ago, and we see why the Jays' brass is seriously considering the youth movement at second. While Arismendy Alcantara is going off the board much earlier in drafts, I see Travis as putting up the better fantasy season.
A Closer Conundrum, Eh?
With the Blue Jays preferring to keep Aaron Sanchez in the rotation after the unfortunate injury to Marcus Stroman, many thought they would facilitate a trade with the Phillies for Jonathan Papelbon or sign Rafael Soriano to close games. However, the Blue Jays' brass has resisted the temptation, and their patience may be paying off, as Brett Cecil took a huge step forward by throwing 15 pitches in a minor league game on Saturday. Cecil posted a stellar 2014 season, strikeout out batters at a 32.5% rate while maintaining an absurd 16.5% swinging strike rate. The 11.5% walk rate is a concern, but he handled righties quite well (.255 wOBA against), so he clearly has the goods for the job. With Rafael Soriano reportedly holding an open workout in the coming days, it'll be interesting to see if the Jays make a play for him. It'll depend how Soriano looks and how Cecil responds to his next game action on Tuesday, but I see the Jays, who have pennant aspirations, adding the former Nationals' closer to the pen. Watch closely.
Don't Be Stung By Jung
After culling through the myriad of statements coming from the Pirates' camp, one cannot help but see the writing on the wall: Jung Ho Kang is going to be a utility player, at least for the early part of 2015. Kang, who despite slugging over .700 in the hitter friendly KBO, emigrated from the East with plenty of questions surrounding his ability to make consistent contact with MLB pitching. And so far, albeit in a short sample, the rookie has gone 3 for 23 with 9 K's. Jordy Mercer, meanwhile, who posted a solid second half in 2014 for the Bucs, is 9 for 31 this spring. Add to all of this the defensive acumen that Mercer brings, and you can see why the Bucs will start the year with Kang on the bench. Leave Jung Ho to 15+ team mixed leagues and NL only formats for now.
The Pirates Use of Corey is Breaking My Hart
Corey Hart is having a pretty monstrous spring so far, as the veteran is now 5 for his first 12 since returning from his "hot tub" incident. Why should we care? Well, Clint Hurdle seems wedded to a strict platoon at first base with Hart and Alvarez, alluding to such in a post-game interview on Saturday. Hart has posted a .373 wOBA in his career vs. lefties, while Alvarez has posted a .263 career mark against them, so the move makes sense. While this is rough news for Alvarez owners in leagues with weekly transactions, for those with daily, this may actually be good news if you can pair him with a handcuff and reap the benefits in the AVG category.
Around the League
Miguel Cabrera (1B-DET): Miguel Cabrera (foot, ankle) singled in three consecutive AB's during a minor league game on Saturday, although he did not run the bases or play the field. Manager Brad Ausmus was non-committal about whether or not Miggy would DH in a split-squad game today, wanting to see how the slugger feels before deciding. In playing through injuries in 2014 Cabrera posted his lowest wOBA since the 2008 campaign and his lowest ISO since his rookie campaign in 2003. In looking at his average speed off of bat on his homers, he lost over 2 MPH from 2013 to 2014 and 9 feet on his average distance on those homers. So the question is: how much of that can we impute to the injury and how much to general decline? I'd put it at 90% injury-related and 10% decline (there were some minor signs prior to the 2014 season of this...minor). While I see no reason why Cabrera can't deliver elite numbers in 2015, for me, however, I want to minimize risk in the first round; until I see him running the bases and recovering solidly the following day, I'm still passing until the second round in ROTO leagues.
Victor Martinez (DH-DET): Much of the same news for Cabrera also applies to Victor Martinez (knee), as the veteran homered in his return to action in the minor league game sans base running. While he is also likely to DH today, it isn't clear when VMART will run the bases, but all systems point to a return close to opening day. Martinez posted a career-high .411 wOBA in 2014, a mark that was fueled by a rare age-35 power surge of 32 homers. His insane 3.4% swinging strike rate coupled with a 92% contact rate put his season into its proper context: historic. The question is: can he come close to repeating? His 103 MPH avg. speed off of bat mark and 388 avg. distance on his homer mark are actually both slightly below league average, so we don't see that 16% HR/FB rate as anything close to sustainable. More than likely, it will regress to his 10% career norm, which, if he hits closer to 20 homers and posts similar numbers across the board, should still return top 50 value.
Alex Gordon (OF-KC): Alex Gordon (wrist) went 0 for 3 in his Spring Training debut on Saturday and reported no issues afterwards, putting him on track for an early April return. Gordon posted a solid season all around in 2014, and his avg. speed off of bat (104.8) and his avg. HR distance (409) suggest that his 11% HR/FB rate may have been on the low end. However, wrists can take a while to heal, as we witnessed last season with Edwin Encarnacion, so while I see 20+ homers being there by season's end, he may take a few months to get going. At #127 off the board in NFBC drafts, Gordon offers solid value for 2015.
Adam Wainwright (SP-STL): Adam Wainwright (abdomen, elbow) assuaged the fears of his Cardinals and fantasy ownership by tossing 4 scoreless innings in his Spring Training debut on Saturday. This, albeit, was against the hapless Atlanta Braves, who are sure to draw lots of attention in the DFS world this season. Wainwright allowed 4 hits and struck out 3 while allowing 1 free pass, and to my eyes, his command looked better than his stuff. Wainwright admitted to pitching with elbow soreness in the second half, which definitely explains part of the 3% drop in his K-rate. I fear that fantasy owners are looking at that 2.38 ERA and the name, but if you look at his 3.34 xFIP--due largely to his 5.3% HR/FB rate and .267 BABIP--a regression is on the horizon. Maybe a healthy Waino can mitigate the pending regression, but given the arms being drafted behind him at #56 overall, I see too much risk for the price.
Matt Wieters (C-BAL): Orioles manger Buck Showalter said on Saturday that Matt Wieters (elbow) is likely to begin the season on the disable list. This announcement comes a few days after Wieters was shut down after playing the field for the first time since having Tommy John surgery last June. Wieters tantalized us in 2014 before succumbing to injury, posting a .365 wOBA through 26 games and playing the part of the uber-prospect he once was. Showalter's contention all spring has been that Wieters will only arrive during the season when able to catch; with that in mind, the slugger will likely miss a large chunk of April and perhaps more. Monitor closely, and see if J.P. Arencibia or Ryan Lavarnway break camp, as they could provide useful value in AL only leagues.
Stephen Strasburg (P-WAS): Take a deep breath, Strasburg owners, as it appears that the reported ankle injury that popped up after conditioning drills is not even serious enough to merit a MRI. While he will miss his scheduled start today, all indications from Nat's camp put him back on the mound towards the middle of the week. Strasburg posted a 3.14 ERA and 2.56 xFIP, and was quite unfortunate with his HR/FB rate (13%) and BABIP (.315). The 22.9% K%-BB% mark that he posted was absolutely elite, as was the 11.2% swinging strike percentage. I envision Strasburg, the 26th overall player taken off the boards in the NFBC, returning top-20 value in 2015.
Odubel Herrera (2B/OF-PHI): The Rule 5 Pick from the Rangers left the game on Saturday after injuring in right knee while dropping a bunt, although the injury doesn't appear anything other than a day-to-day issue. Before the incident Herrera went 2 for 3 with an RBI to move his spring AVG to .389 to go along with 4 stolen bases in 11 games. Herrera posted a .321/.373/.402 line in 96 AA games last season before turning in a solid season in winter ball. Although he doesn't possess any carrying tool, manager Ryne Sandberg seems genuinely impressed by his play, making it likely that the versatile Herrera breaks camps. With injuries hitting the rebuilding Phillies, I see Herrera earning significant playing time this season. 14+ team mixed leaguers and NL only leaguers should remember the name in the latter rounds on draft day.
Daniel Muno (2B-NYM): With Daniel Murphy's Opening Day status up in the air, manager Terry Collins has let slip the man he prefers to see win the job: the venerable Daniel Muno. The former Fresno State standout has posted a career .395 OBP in 384 minor league games, including a .372 mark in AAA last season. While he hit 14 homers in 2014 it was in the PCL, and most scouts don't see more than a handful of homers out of his bat. Dilson Herrera's 1-for-17 Spring took him out of contention for the spot, but don't forget about him for the second half. In the meantime, Muno is a man to watch for in NL only leagues and as a Murphy handcuff.
Jace Peterson (2B-ATL): Don't sleep on Jace Peterson in any format that values speed, as the former Padre appears to be on the brink of winning the second base job and the honor of keeping the seat warm until Jose Peraza is ready later in the season. Peterson has swiped 148 bags in 389 career minor league games with a solid .381 OBP, although much of his work last year took place in hitter-friendly environments in Texas and California. His work this spring (13 for 37 with 6 walks and 2 steals) has definitely peak the interest of Fredi Gonzalez, and it should peak yours if your roster is deficient in speed or at MI towards the end of the draft.
Kris Bryant (3B-CHC): I'd be remiss if I didn't mention UBER prospect Kris Bryant and his 2-homer day (1 of those coming off of King Felix). The recent barrage brings his spring total to 8 and doesn't do much to ease the calls for Bryant to break camp on Opening Day. Bryant posted a 1.098 OPS across AA and AAA last season en route to winning nearly every Minor League Player of the Year Award on the planet. While he will bring swing-and-miss to the action (197 K's last season), he also knows the strike zone as evidenced by his 97 walks, so this isn't your typical "he-has contact-issues" prospect. In fact, I see Bryant breaking camp with the Cubs and producing top-100 value in fantasy circles, with the potential for more, especially if he adds a Paul Goldschmidt-esque 10-15 steals. Even if the Cubs decide to hold him back to mid-April, you shouldn't downgrade him in drafts. This is the kind of player that wins you your league.
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