Rene Rivera - I feel like I left a bit unsaid a few weeks ago regarding Rivera, whose 318 ABs last season were his highest total since 2007. Rivera was pushed to the majors (and into a backup role) right out of A-ball as a 20 year old 11 years ago, and it seems like he has never gotten a real shot at consistent playing time until last season in San Diego. Rivera was 8th among catchers in WAR last year, putting up a 232/312/490 line away from Petco. The Rays are very happy with him as the primary backstop, and with his easy 15+ HR potential, I like him by far the most of the late-game catching options out there.
TB rotation - The Tampa rotation is a complete mess right now with the arm issues that Alex Cobb is facing, as instead of looking to replace just Matt Moore for the first half of the year, they're now scrambling to get early-season replacements for Moore, Cobb, and Drew Smyly. Ideally Cobb and Smyly won't be out for long, but with likely replacement Alex Colome laid up with pneumonia, a lot of guys have a shot out of the gate that normally wouldn't be considered, such as Enny Romero, Burch Smith, and Matt Andriese. It's looking like Smith may already have a spot sewn up (along with Nate Karns), and while he is marginally interesting to those in the deepest of formats, guys like Romero and Colome hold my eye a little more with their velocity. There's likely nothing here to get excited about from a fantasy perspective, but those two are the ones that could emerge from this with some legitimate value going forward if they can harness their control.
Ryan Zimmerman - Zimmerman really seems to be flying under the radar this spring after an injury-riddled 2014, and at age 30 I do expect him to rebound back to his typical .280-25-80 level of production, which would likely be enough to make him a top-10 asset at the position (which could be his last as 3B-eligible). His HR/FB rate dropped a lot more than expected given his batted ball distance, so assuming that he's once again full healthy I see no reason to extrapolate last year's power loss.
Tanner Roark - I still feel like Roark is likely to provide a bit of deep-league value this year, which should illustrate just how negative I am on Doug Fister's prospects. Even assuming some BABIP regression, Roark can provide league-average value out of the 5th starter's slot if given the opportunity....he is a better option than many teams have in the last few spots of their rotations.
Matt Joyce - It's possible that we are underrating Matt Joyce a bit heading into 2015 for a couple of reasons. The first is obvious: the improved offense around him, which should definitely boost his counting stats a bit. The second is a bit more surprising to me, but Joyce may benefit more than most from the park move. Over the past three seasons, Joyce has hit 30 HR on the road versus only 14 at home in Tampa. I don't think he's suddenly going to provide top-50 OF value, but it may make him a reasonable option in 16-team or deeper leagues as a fifth OF if he truly has 20-HR upside outside of Tampa.
Andrew Heaney - I'm not a huge fan of Heaney, particularly after the move to the AL out of a terrific pitcher's park, but he is likely to get a shot to open the season in the Angels rotation with Garrett Richards still probably a month away. Heaney is a 23 year old lefty with 3 above-average offerings and average-plus command, although nothing about him stands out as elite. His ceiling is likely that of a #3/#4 starter, which for me puts his value this season into the AL-only/deep mixed league category....he has some upside, but there's a pretty low floor here as well with his difficulties against RHB (301/364/580 in his brief MLB time last year).
Taijuan Walker - Walker is surprisingly flying under the radar a bit this spring, carrying a bit of a "post-hype prospect" vibe with him after the past few injury-influenced seasons. Still just 22, Walker generates a lot of swing-and-miss with three above-average offerings to go along with a changeup that's still improving. His command can be iffy at times, but his ceiling is definitely that of a top-20 arm, and he's pitching in a favorable home park. After another four shutout innings yesterday, Walker has allowed just 4 hits and 3 walks over 12 innings thus far this spring, striking out 13 without allowing a run to this point. I would be perfectly happy slotting Walker in as my fifth starter this spring, and with an average ADP in the 23rd round, the cost certainly shouldn't be prohibitive.
Jake Lamb - Lamb has his contact issues, but he could prove to be a cheap source of power if the D-Backs choose to move Tomas to the OF (or to AAA) for the start of the season. He has clear 20-25 HR power if he can get the ABs, and he's doing his best this spring to prove that he belongs with the club with 4 2Bs and 2 HRs in his first 32 spring ABs. Tomas does look a bit raw (he has a couple errors at 3B already), but I think that Arizona is going to let this play out for another couple of weeks before they make a decision....Lamb would definitely have value in formats deeper than average if he is starting.
Joc Pederson - If you like upside, I don't see how you can fail to draft Pederson this spring. A 30/30 player at AAA as a 22 year old last year, Pederson definitely seems to be getting less buzz than he deserves as the projected starting CF in a decent lineup. There are some contact issues of course, something that might keep the AVG down in the .250 range, but I just fail to see how there should be 150 players that are drafted between he and George Springer....I'd much rather have the value that Pederson is likely to provide at that draft position, as their floors and ceilings are very similar.
TJ House - House definitely looks like the next possibility to be spat out of the Dallas Keuchel rejuvenation machine, which is pretty amazing seeing that he was just about out of baseball 3 1/2 years ago after posting a 5.19 ERA in A-ball. Fast forward to 2014, and House managed a 61% GB rate and a 9.3 swinging strike% over 102 innings with the Indians, and he definitely seems to have the inside track on a rotation spot coming out of spring training this year. His ceiling is pretty limited by his solid average stuff, but the groundball rate should give him a pretty solid floor as well. He definitely merits more interest than he is being shown thus far (average NFBC ADP as the 111th SP off the board)...he could easily provide back-end starting value in all formats.
Ervin Santana - Santana is one of the players with the largest discrepancy between public opinion and our projections. He is currently the 79th SP being drafted (again, NFBC rankings), while we have him ranked 37th among SP. Yes, he's moving to the AL, but for a flyball pitcher Minnesota shouldn't provide an awful adjustment from Atlanta. More importantly, Santana posted the best chase rate and swinging strike% of his career last year, but a strand rate among the worst in the game led to an ERA/FIP ERA gap of over 0.50. I'd be surprised if he ended up posting #3 SP value overall with the move to the AL, but I do think that you could do much worse than having Santana as your 5th starter, particularly when taking into account how little it's likely to cost.
Jon Singleton - Singleton's value is still very much in the "deep-league only" area, but any player with 25-HR potential and a starting spot deserves to be watched. He's still just 23, and with any strides at all in contact rate (plus some positive movement in BABIP) he could prove to be a solid sleeper with his significant power.
Wilmer Flores - Flores played 162 at AAA over the past two seasons, and over that time he's produced 47 2B, 6 3B, and 28 HR. "That's Vegas" you say, and to an extent I agree, but Flores also hit 5 homers in 47 games playing most of the time down the stretch for NY last year. That pretty clearly speaks to 15-20 HR power, and at age 23 we could hope for a bit more growth there as well. The contact rate made huge strides last season as well, something that was masked a bit by a horribly unlucky .265 BABIP (20% LD rate). A .260 AVG and 15 HR isn't monstrous production, but it's certainly something that I could see from Flores this year, and in deeper leagues that's acceptable production from a lower-tier SS.
Francisco Liriano - Liriano managed a 57% GB rate and 9.84 K/9 in the 2nd half last year to go along with the 1.13 WHIP and 2.20 ERA. I like Liriano particularly in shallow leagues where the replacement value is higher, and he has a higher ceiling and lower floor than many other pitchers that are similarly valued. Currently going off the board as the 56th SP, we have him valued much more highly at #34. A very solid #4 starter in standard formats....his upside is more that of a #2.
Dalton Pompey - The 22 year old Pompey looks to be the starting CF for Toronto this season, and if he can eliminate just a bit of the "swing-and-miss" in his game he could score a ton of runs in that lineup. Pompey had 23 2B, 11 3B, 10 HR, and 44 SB across four levels last season, and represents pretty solid value as a bench OF with upside this spring.
Javier Baez - Baez is currently going off the board 10th among 2B, and yes, there's potential, but that's just waaaay too high for a player with his contact issues. Baez is not a player that I would be targeting in redraft leagues, but he is most definitely a player that I would target in dynasty formats. He has numerous adjustments to make before he'll be useful as an everyday player, but the potential for a 30/10 guy at 2B is too tantalizing to ignore completely. The latest rumblings in Chicago suggest a possibility that Baez may be sent down to start the season after a 3-30 start to spring training (with 11 K's), and should that come to pass I would certainly start prodding his owner in dynasty leagues....I'm happy to let someone else take the risk for 2015 though.
