Doug Fister - Fister is a major concern for me heading into 2015 after a superficially excellent 2014 (16-6, 2.41 ERA, 1.08 WHIP). Fister was able to succeed last year despite precipitous declines in swinging strike%, GB rate, and velocity thanks to some fantastic control and one of the best LOB%'s in the game. With an FIP ERA of 3.93 and a place on the wrong side of 30, I do not believe that he will be able to provide value commensurate with his current NFBC ADP spot as the 34th SP off the board, and with Tanner Roark likely lurking in the bullpen, the leash for all the Washington starters may be a bit tighter than you might expect.
Bryce Harper - Harper did have a rough third professional season last year.......as a 21 year old. Look, I understand the negatives here: K rate increase, knee injury, subsequent speed dropoff, thumb injury, sizable drop in ISO, other soft-tissue injuries.....ultimately, the injuries are the key. Few are the players that can continue to produce at an elite level with a laundry list of ailments, and as we say frequently around here, health is a skill. The talent is undeniable though, and whether he ends up performing like Mickey Mantle or J.D. Drew, he's as likely to be a star as anybody that's currently being drafted outside the top 30. And just so you know, Mickey Mantle's 10 top-HR seasons came between the ages of 22-32. Harper doesn't turn 23 until after the season....I'm just saying.
Kevin Kiermaier - Kiermaier heads into camp as the likely starting RF for the Rays following the Wil Myers deal, and at just 24 years of age on Opening Day, it's reasonable (and a minority opinion) to expect some more growth this season. He's increased his ISO at every level since A-ball, and his minor league performances (and his raw speed) would suggest that 15-20 steals would be very possible. The AVG might be a bit of an issue, and his contact rates aren't all that great, but a .260/10/17 guy is a solid 5th OF in deeper formats. Looking at the current ADP's for the outfield, I don't see anyone that I prefer below him, and I like him better than more than a handful of names right ahead of him as well.
Rene Rivera - Rivera could be a very sneaky AL-only or deeper mixed league play at catcher this year. The 31 year old is moving from SD to Tampa, at least a slightly positive park change, and with 11 homers in just 294 ABs and a higher AVG HR distance than Miguel Cabrera (among many others) last year, 15+ homers is certainly not out of the question. He does have some contact issues, but he managed a LD rate of 21% last season, something that if repeated should allow him to keep his AVG around the .250 mark. His upside is limited to power in all likelihood, but he seems to be very much off the radar so far this spring.
C.J. Cron - With Josh Hamilton out an undetermined period of time to start the year, C.J. Cron's value has increased commensurately. Cron has big-boy power, posting an avg HR distance of over 405 feet (MLB average was 395) for his 11 homers, and he also managed a LD rate of over 25%. The contact issues are there to be sure, with a chase% of 41 the primary culprit, but as scarce as power is these days Cron is definitely going to be a useful part in leagues of average depth or greater for at least as long as Hamilton is out.
Josh Rutledge - Some guys are AAAA hitters, and Rutledge may very well be one of them. He's regressed mightily since his age-23 season in 2012, but even so he's never failed to hit below .300 in the minors with any meaningful number of ABs, and he's flashed the ability to provide double-digit totals in both HR and SB. He's very likely to win the Angels 2B job this spring, and with the rather weak state of MIF in general, he is a player to watch in deeper formats.
Dayan Viciedo - Viciedo signed with the Blue Jays on Sunday, and with the injury to a typically slow-healing Michael Saunders expected to last into April, Viciedo has a solid shot at earning some playing time when the team heads north. If that does come to pass, the nearly-26 year old should benefit from the 3rd-best HR park in the majors last year, likely giving him some value in deeper formats...at least for the early going. I think it would be unlikely for him to carve out a major role over the longer haul given the amount of competition for playing time at 1B/OF/DH, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him bash a handful of homers in April and maintain value against LHP all season.
Mike Moustakas - It's hard not to love the post-hype prospects, especially ones that are coming off a 5 HR, .327 ISO postseason. Granted, Moustakas has had more false starts than Willie Colon, but there are a passel of positive indicators in his recent record. His LD rate has continued to increase the past two seasons while his BABIP has headed in the other direction, giving him the worst figure for any regular (over 500 PAs) last season. Even assuming that the shift takes some hits away, some better fortune is still likely to head his way (a league average number of LD's dropping in would have resulted in an AVG in the mid-.270's). His avg batted ball distance increased tremendously last year, his BB rate improved to 7% from 6.2%, and his swinging strike% continued to decline. I still would be looking at him as a late-game sleeper in most formats, as with all of these positive indicators he is still just 26.
Oswaldo Arcia - I've been a fan of Arcia's for a few years now, and I'd definitely be looking to snap him up late in all formats again this year. Yes, he has major contact issues...primarily stemming from pitch recognition problems (outside zone swing% approaching 40). Still, he has enormous power, with the 2nd lowest JE (just enough) HR rate and tied for the highest ND (no doubt) HR rate in MLB last year. In addition, I'll reiterate from my comment last fall that his LD rate of 21.5% isn't fully represented in his AVG, and he's likely more of a .250 hitter than a .230 one. With the dearth of power around baseball right now relative to even just a few years ago, a guy like Arcia can push you over the top as a 5th OF.
Trevor Bauer - Everyone loves Kluber, is big on a Carrasco breakout, and thinks Salazar is a sleeper, but Trevor Bauer could be the most likely guy to outperform his draft position for the Indians in 2015. Bauer's ADP is 321 in NFBC competition right now, and for a guy that had an ERA and WHIP well above league average last year, it isn't all that surprising. Bauer did have a nice velocity spike last year, something that assisted him in posting a K/9 of 8.41, and he also showed vastly improved control. In fact, Bauer's 2013-14 looks a bit like Homer Bailey's 2009-10. Bailey has continued to improve since that time to become a solid mid-rotation starter (that retains some upside still), and I think that Bauer has reasonable odds to follow a similar career path despite last year's late-season fade.
Michael Brantley - Brantley had what clearly looks like a career year in 2014, doubling his previous best in HRs without adding any more flyballs or average batted ball distance to the equation. He is a tremendous contact hitter with good speed and, likely, average power that is still just 27 to start the season. Yes, he's still likely to give you an excellent average, but I imagine another 20/20 season will be difficult for him to attain....he has virtually no power except to the pull-side (19 of 20 HRs to RF), and a hitter with that lack of raw strength is going to be hard-pressed to continue to hit homers at his 2014 clip. A .300-15-20 year is definitely possible, perhaps even likely, but will that be enough value for his acquisition cost?
Homer Bailey - As Michael mentioned, Bailey has slid down draft boards this spring with the news that he is a bit less than 50/50 for Opening Day. The news doesn't concern me very much, and I'd like to point out that Bailey is working on a 6-year string of increased swinging strike percentages to go along with 3-year increases in velocity and GB rate. If you asked me to choose one player outside of the top-20 SPs by current ADP that could win the Cy Young this year, Bailey would be my guy.
Ryan Rua - Another deep league sleeper this spring, Rua has come out of nowhere the past few years to enter March 2015 as the projected starting LF for Texas. He managed 20 homers and a .300 AVG across 3 levels in 2014, and while the contact rate is definitely suspect, the mere presence of the solid pop and a 25% LD rate during his 105-AB cameo last fall leave some room for optimism. Michael Choice and Jake Smolinski (and maybe even Ryan Ludwick) could provide some spring competition, but if Rua enters April with the job I would look at him as an AL-only option capable of delivering some cheap power.
Jorge Soler - 11 players hit 30 homers last year in MLB, the lowest non-strike year total since 1992. Power scarcity is one of the critical things that we all have to face drafting our teams now, which is basically the exact opposite of how we were able to look at things 10 years ago, or even 5 years ago. Jorge Soler hit 20 homers in just 289 ABs last year across 4 levels. Granted, he was overqualified for his first two stops, but he managed 13 homers in 199 ABs between AAA and the bigs as well. The standard "average at best" speed and contact issue caveats apply, but Soler certainly appears to have 30-homer pop to go along with a quickly improving Cub lineup to assist his counting stats. I definitely like him as a high-standard deviation OF option this spring.
Brandon McCarthy - One of my favorite hobby horses for a while now, McCarthy is a sneaky back-end option at SP this year. I'll tick off the positives in rapid-fire fashion: xFIP ERA of 2.87, park factor improvement by somewhere between 5-10%, impeccable control, rapidly improving GB rate, best K rate and swinging strike% of his career as a starter, huge velocity bump. In my estimation, something would have to go drastically wrong for McCarthy to not perform as an above-average starter in 2015, and that makes him likely to be an overperformer given his current ADP.
Ian Kennedy - Kennedy had a nice velocity spike and a predictable decrease in HR rate in his first full year in SD, and with a shiny new offense behind him in 2015, it's hard not to forecast even better things for 2015, especially when you look at that 3.21 FIP ERA from last year. His average ADP reflects that optimism to some extent, but he is being drafted 4th among the SD SPs right now, and I think he's as likely as any to be the best performer of the group.
