Ian Desmond is definitely a position where you can get a leg up on your competition these days, because if you include Hanley Ramirez, there are still only 4 guys that clearly should be off the board in the first 100 selections. Of the four, only Desmond is a player that you wouldn't call "brittle", making him the most likely return on investment in the top tier at the position. Desmond has some power upside as well, exhibiting elite batted ball speed (over 106 mph) that could result in a 30 homer season with a bit more elevation in his swing. Unlike the guys that you'd clearly take ahead of him in the first round, he isn't really a threat to hit .300, but for me he's still an excellent selection in the late 1st/early 2nd rounds.
Anthony Rendon - First things first: I love Rendon as a player. I think he's a clear top-4 player at either 2B or 3B, and he doesn't turn 25 until June. That being said, I think there's very little upside (and some reasonable downside) at his current ADP of 11th. He ranked third in the percentage of home runs hit that were classified as "just enough" last year, with 9 of his 21 homers plotted as failing to leave the yard in 2/3 of major league stadiums. His batted ball speed and average HR distance all support the likelihood of a slight decline in his HR total this year. In addition, he attempted twice as many steals in 2014 as he did in the two full professional seasons prior to that. He's not a burner at all, so he's likely maxed out there as well. His R and RBI totals look a bit inflated from last year as well, so a bit of a dip should probably be expected there too. AVG is the one area where there is some argument of upside, but even there his poor BABIP luck from 2013 turned neutral in 2014, so he's most likely to come in fairly close to last year's figure. All in all, you've got reasonable cases for regression in 4 of 5 categories, and at the very least you'd be stretching to expect anything better than last year. For me, Rendon is best selected in the late 2nd/early 3rd rounds of a 12-team mixed draft, and if that's the case, you're likely going to have to let someone else deal with the risk of slight regression.
David Freese - I'm probably in the minority, but I still see some potential upside with Freese. His LD rate of over 25% wasn't fully represented in his BABIP last season, and as a player whose lowest LD rate for a season is 20.9%, there's always the possibility of some average upside. Furthermore, his average HR distance of over 404 feet borders on elite level....the problem is that Freese basically only hits the ball between left-center and right-center. With a bit more pull in his swing, 15-20 homers would easily come into play. He's not really a factor for standard-sized leagues, but those in deep leagues should pay him a bit of heed, as I wouldn't be surprised to see top-20 positional value at 3B out of Freese this year, and as such he would warrant a late-game selection.
Kole Calhoun - Calhoun delivered on his modest power upside in 2014, but I do think there's a bit more potential here in both AVG and SB for 2015, and I think much of it depends on the fact that his right ankle is fully healed heading into the year. His LD rate of nearly 24% only delivered a BABIP of .313 (well below expectations), and after swiping a few bags in the first two weeks of the year, Calhoun only stole one in his three months after hitting the DL for the ankle injury. Another 10-15 points in batting average, along with 10-15 steals, and then Calhoun will become the legitimate OF3 that I envision.
Steven Souza - Souza is one of the more interesting players to watch this spring, as at age 26 he appears to finally have a shot at a major league starting spot. Souza has performed at close to a 30/30 level per 150 games throughout his minor league career, and as you might expect, he does come packaged with some reasonable contact issues. His path is rather unique, though, in that he showed virtually no progress until his 6th professional season, and it took him until his 7th pro season to reach AA. In 173 G at AA and AAA the past two years, however, he's produced 33 HRs and 46 SBs. If he can offer up even half of that this year for Tampa, and we think that he can, he is a worthwhile selection for all formats, and quite a bit higher than his current 54th ranking among OF in NFBC drafting I might add.
Drew Smyly - Smyly has become a popular sleeper over the past few weeks, moving up to the 43rd SP coming off the board of late. I'm certainly not a buyer at this level, as his late-season performance had a sizable portion of luck that could be ascribed to it. Despite a LD rate of just under 20%, his BABIP as a Ray was under .200. His velocity was down a bit last year, he's already on the shelf with some shoulder discomfort, and his LOB% last year was a likely unsustainable 79.3%. I prefer the upside of Archer and Odorizzi in the Ray rotation, both of whom are currently being drafted after Smyly in most leagues. For me, Smyly is more of an SP5/streamer than a mid-tier SP4 in 12-team leagues.
Alex Avila - I often find myself scrapping for any sort of potential late in the draft for a 2nd catcher, and out of all the backstops being drafted outside of the top-20, Alex Avila offers the most upside to me. His stats really suffered after a June concussion last year, but he still managed yet another year with a LD rate well above 20% (25 last year), and his average home run distance of 410 feet falls into the elite category. He definitely has both AVG and power upside , and for a late-game flyer in your second catcher spot what more do you want?
Jonathan Gray - Gray is apparently still in the mix for a spot in the Colorado rotation, and although of course the usual caveats for Rockie pitchers apply, Gray has a chance to be special. Especially for those of you drafting a few weeks from now, I would consider Gray as a streaming-type of an option in the late-game portion of your draft if he remains in the mix....he has #2 starter upside.
Jay Bruce - I'm a big believer in a Bruce and Votto rebound for the Reds this year, and in Bruce's case there are three main reasons for that. #1, the knee injury last year certainly sapped his power, as he couldn't generate the normal level of torque from his back leg. Secondly, although his LD rate remained above 20%, his BABIP dropped all the way to .269, a very unfortunate level for a player with moderate speed and that LD rate. Finally, despite the knee issues his average HR distance was still 406 feet, which also would portend a bit of a power rebound. I think there's some upside from Bruce's current position as the 26th OF off the board, and I view him as a solid OF2.
Adrian Beltre - Beltre has continued to evolve as a hitter during his time in Texas, hitting more line drives, popping up less, walking more, and making better contact in general. The ISO drop last year may be a bit overstated due to a still-elite 104.6 mph batted-ball speed, and in this day and age, a likely .310-.320 hitter with 20-25 homers is a very valuable commodity. Father Time is undefeated long-term, but I'm still happy with Beltre as my 3B this year anytime after the middle of the second round.
Brad Miller - Miller's value jumped yesterday with the unfortunate news that Chris Taylor broke his wrist and will miss at least 4-6 weeks, giving Miller the starting SS gig by default. Miller already had some upside potential, owing to a BABIP that was about 45 points below expected in 2014 combined with a bit more power than his 10 HRs last year would lead you to believe (as evidenced by his avg HR distance of 405 feet). His contact rate isn't awful, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the K totals drop a bit this year as well, and I could envision double-digits in steals to boot. All in all, Miller has some upside across the board, and I would certainly take a shot on him as a low-cost MI in leagues of moderate depth or greater.
Jose Bautista - It's a common mantra (and accurate) that you can't win leagues in the first round or two, but you can lose them. In that light, there are a few things about Jose Bautista that are nagging me in a negative sense. The contact rate slid back toward his career average last year in conjunction with a career-worst chase%, yet his BABIP and AVG were both the 2nd-best of his career. His average HR distance is very good, but it's behind such hitters as Nolen Arenado, Corey Dickerson, and Alex Gordon....combined with the decline in ISO from his peak I would say that Bautista is more likely to hit less than his 2014 total of 35 HRs in 2015 than more. Add in the fact that he's the oldest players being selected in the first few rounds on average, and suffice it to say that I will be letting others take the risk on Bautista this year unless he somehow slides into the mid-20s....there is just far more downside here than there is with most other options early in the draft.
Brett Gardner - Gardner looks a bit undervalued to me based on his current ADP....granted, the avg HR distance leads you to believe that 12-15 HRs is a more likely outcome than last year's 17, but his AVG was deflated by a surprisingly low BABIP of .305 (expected approx. .325), his swinging strike% remains very low at less than 5%, and his stolen base attempts dropped significantly in the second half when he was moved out of the leadoff spot frequently. I expect a bit more in the way of R, SB, and AVG this season to more than offset a slight drop in HR, and I value him more as an OF3 than the OF4 that his current ADP represents.
Salvador Perez - For me, Perez is likely to be a top-5 player at the position, yet he's currently the 7th catcher off the board on average. An abnormally low BABIP last season contributed to a 32 point drop in average, and while his chase rate escalated as well (which clearly also contributed), some positive movement in AVG should be expected. Perez is also turning 25 in May, and it wouldn't be a surprise at all to see some further gains in power up into the 20 HR range. All in all, I'd likely rather gamble on a guy like Perez that's on the right side of the age curve than someone like Brian McCann....Perez is still a solid choice after Posey and Lucroy are off the board, likely sometime around the 95th-105th pick.
Rougned Odor - If you're looking for a player outside of the top 250 that could definitely make major strides in 2015, Odor fits the bill. The track record of guys that aren't completely overmatched in the majors at age 20 is pretty solid, and looking at players with comparable performances to Odor through age 20 comes up with guys like Ryan Zimmerman, Starlin Castro, Brett Lawrie, Kolten Wong, and Jose Altuve. At the very least, I expect some more speed to manifest this year, perhaps in the 15 SB range. Beyond that, just general maturation and adjustments should carry him into at least MIF mixed league value, with plenty of upside beyond that.
Daniel Hudson - Hudson is a near-total wild card entering 2015, as he has pitched a total of 61 innings (majors and minors) since 2011 while suffering two TJ surgeries and a shoulder impingement (not necessarily in that order). He only threw a couple of innings at the end of 2014 out of the bullpen, but it was interesting to see that his velocity had not only withstood the multiple procedures on his arm, but it had (as you'd expect from a healthy arm) increased in the short stints in the pen. The D-Backs have already stated that he'll be on the team if he's healthy, and it isn't like they've locked down the rotation with 2014 holdovers....only Collmenter and Hellickson are guaranteed spots right now, and it seems to be an open competition between 6 or 7 others for the other three slots. As a flyball pitcher in Arizona there's a lot of standard deviation here, but he's definitely worth watching during spring training (and likely for a week or two beyond) as a back-end rotational option with upside.
