Cincinnati Reds
Has Johnny Cueto established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball?
Johnny Cueto was brilliant in 2014. Cueto went 20-9 and posted a 2.25 ERA over 243.2 IP. Cueto had been labeled as a health risk heading into 2014, but responded by taking the ball every fifth day. There are some reasons to suggest regression, like his .238 BABIP, but Cueto has shown the ability to induce weak contact. This could be due to his great change-up, cutter, turn in his delivery, or a combination of all three. Cueto also posted a .236 BABIP in 2013, which suggests that it is a skill and not an outlier. Cueto is going to have a hard time repeating his 83% strand rate, which is going to lead to him giving up more runs. Regardless, Cueto remains one of the elite starting pitchers in baseball.
Are any of the Reds starting pitchers worth owning other than Johnny Cueto?
Mike Leake
Mike Leake is a much better real life pitcher than he is a fantasy one. He does not strikeout a lot of batters, which limits his fantasy value. He will remain a league average pitcher and nothing more. Leake is going outside of the top 100 pitchers and it would be a wise move to skip over him and go for someone with more upside like Shane Greene, Jimmy Nelson, or Andrew Heaney (who are all going in the same range).
Anthony DeSclafani
Anthony DeSclafani has won a rotation spot and pushed Tony Cingrani back into the bullpen. Tony Cingrani might be better suited for the bullpen, because his fly-ball tendencies are a bad match for Great American Ballpark.
The real question is who is Anthony DeSclafani and what can we expect out of him in 2015? DeSclafani posted a 3.78 ERA over 102 minor league innings in 2014. DeSclafani is primarily a two-pitch pitcher. He boasts a (89-94)mph fastball and slider that sits at (82)mph. DeSclafani is a fly-ball pitcher (40%), which is not the best combination for Great American Ballpark. He is not fantasy relevant at this point.
Jason Marquis and Rasiel Iglesias
Jason Marquis and Rasiel Iglesias are going to round out the Reds rotation until Homer Bailey can make it back from off-season forearm surgery. Last time Marquis pitched in the big leagues it was 2013 and he posted a 4.05 ERA with a .8 K-BB%, which is terrible. Iglesias is the more intriguing option because he is a 25yr old Cuban important that throws 94-95 with a slider, curve, and change. If one of the two were to be fantasy relevant, it most likely will be Iglesias, but the outlook for both is not good.
Fact or Fiction: Jay Bruce will bounce back in 2015
Jay Bruce had a very challenging 2014 season. Prior to 2014, Bruce had hit 30+ HR's and drove in 90+ runs three years in a row. Bruce hit .218 with 18 home runs and 66 RBI's in 138 games in 2014. He was hampered by a knee injury to his back knee, which prevented him from driving through the ball. Bruce is going on average as the 87th player and the 26th OF taken in NFBC drafts. A return to 30+ HR's and 90+ RBI's seems likely and would be a nice return on his current draft position. Not to mention he is only 28 yrs. old and in the middle of his prime.
Seattle Mariners
Can Brad Miller take the starting shortstop position by the horns?
The Mariners had a very interesting position battle shaping up for the shortstop position, but a broken wrist for Chris Taylor ended the battle. The job is now solely Brad Miller's and he will get another extended look at the position. Miller has flashed great potential in the minor leagues, but it has not carried over to the big leagues. Miller flashed good power, plate discipline, and some speed at the minor league level. Manager Lloyd McClendon has said that Miller looks more relaxed and comfortable this year. Miller is going on average as the 24th SS, and he is more of a speculative pick than anything, but if he can translate his minor league success to the big leagues, one will have gotten significant value on draft day.
Will Seattle's RF platoon be fantasy relevant in 2015?
The Mariners brought in both Seth Smith and Justin Ruggiano to play rightfield. Smith is going to hit against right-handers and Ruggiano against left. McClendon has stated that he wants whoever is playing right-field to hit in the two hole. This is going to boost their fantasy values. However, only one of the two is going to be fantasy relevant.
Seth Smith is coming over from San Diego where he hit mostly against right-handed pitching and did very well in that role (.270/12/40). The park shift is neutral, so we know what we are going to be getting from Smith. He is only going to relevant in daily leagues in which you can take advantage of his platoon splits. Ruggiano is simply is not going to get enough at-bats to be fantasy relevant this year.
J.A. Happ an integral part of the Mariners rotation?
J.A. Happ is going to be an integral part of the Mariners rotation, but is not going to hold much fantasy value. Currently he is slated behind Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma. Happ is coming over from Toronto in which he had a decent season (4.22 ERA over 158 IP). The biggest difference for Happ in 2015 is that he is going from one of the best offensive parks in the American League to one of the best pitchers parks. The park shift is going to help Happ and he did pick up some speed on his fastball (92.7mph) in 2014 so there are postives. This has some people calling Happ a deep sleeper, but don't fall for the trick. Happ is nothing more than a league average pitcher and at the end of your draft, you could do much better by drafting someone with more upside like Shane Greene, T.J. House, or Chase Anderson.
Around the League
Ryan Braun-MIL-OF
Ryan Braun is recovering from off-season thumb surgery and appears to be healthy. The thumb injury was a major problem for Braun in 2014, so it is good to see him performing and performing well. He is hitting .280 with 2 HR's this spring. Braun's ADP is 33rd overall, which puts him as a 3rd round value. This seems low for a hitter that has been a perennial first rounder. Yes, he has seen a significant drop in his power since his PED suspension, but that could have been due to the thumb injury. He still has a lot of upside.
Jon Singleton-HOU-1B
Jon Singleton was 0-4 for Wednesday, dropping his spring average to .244 with a 13/4 K/BB. The odds of Singleton making the club are getting slimmer by the day. Singleton struggled mightily in his first experience at the major league level. He needs to cut down on the strikeouts (37%) to be successful. He still has the potential to be a slugging first-baseman, but needs to make more contact and unfortunately it might take an extended trip to the minors to get the ship right.
Joc Pederson-LAD-OF
Joc Pederson was 1-3 with a home run against the lefty Jason Lane in Wednesdays win over the Padres. Pederson has all, but won the starting CF job for the Dodgers. He has had an excellent spring (.404/4/9). Pederson has a lot of fantasy potential with his power/speed combination. He has some swing and miss to his game, but he is going as the 50th OF with the likes of Lorenzo Cain and Denard Span. Pederson offers significant upside to both of those players.
Buster Posey-SF-C
Buster Posey was removed from Wednesday's game early. He's nursing a right scapula injury, but it is not considered serious. Posey is expected to play Thursday, but only as DH. Posey remains as the top fantasy catcher, and it isn't particularly close.
Yasiel Puig-LAD-OF
Yasiel Puig was 2-3 with a homerun Wednesday and looked locked in at the plate. Puig remains one of the games better talents. The key for Puig in 2015 is going to staying healthy, because he has superior distance (414ft.) and BBS (104.6mph), which suggests there is upside in his power potential. Puig is a legitimate .300 hitter with power upside. You can't ask for much more from a fantasy player.
Eddie Butler-COL-SP
Eddie Butler threw five innings against the Giants and only gave up 1 ER and struck out 2. Butler has a 2.63 ERA over 13.2 IP this spring. Butler has a good fastball (93.1mph), hard slider (87mph), curveball, and change-up. Butler is battling with Jonathan Gray and Christian Bergman for the last rotation spot. Butler still has long-term potential, but doesn't hold much fantasy value for 2015, because he struggles with control, doesn't strike out a lot of batters, and will pitch half his games at Coors Field.
Michael Wacha-STL-SP
Michael Wacha blanked the Nationals over 5.2 innings, while striking out 4 and walking 1. Wacha has been stellar this spring with a 1.76 ERA, and a 13/1 K/BB through 15.2 innings. Wacha appears to be healthy and does come with injury risk, but has the potential to be a top 30 SP and is going as the 36th SP drafted in NFBC.
Max Scherzer-WAS-SP
Max Scherzer has been named the Nationals Opening Day starter. He is coming off six scoreless innings against the Cardinals. Scherzer has a stellar 23 strikeouts to only 1 walk over 20 innings pitched this spring. The move to the National League is going to be a good one for Scherzer. It typically shaves off .5 from a pitchers ERA. He should also see a rise in his already insane K/9 of 10.29 by facing the opposing pitcher each time he takes the hill. He remains an elite fantasy option.
Daniel Norris-TOR-SP
Daniel Norris mowed through the Orioles lineup on Wednesday. He struck out seven over six innings of one run ball. Norris is going to make the Jays rotation with the season ending injury to Marcus Stroman. Norris boasts a fastball, slider, curve, and change-up mix. He has posted above average strikeout numbers across the minor leagues, but has struggled with his command at times. Norris has become a nice speculative pick in deep mixed leagues and a very solid pick in AL-only leagues.
Steven Souza-TB-OF
Steven Souza went hitless, dropping his batting average to .121. Souza also has a 11/1 K/BB, which is not good. There has been talk of sending him down to AAA to start the year in order to get back on track. Souza was a popular sleeper pick heading into Spring Training, but expectations have been tempered. He still is a very raw player with little big league experience. At this point pay for production and not potential.
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