It would be patently unfair for me to post all these columns over the previous two months without providing the lifeblood of preseason anticipation ... Predictions!
I'll right that wrong today. With the 2015 season less than a week away, here are my final, end-all, be-all, take-'em-to-the-bank, you-might-wanna-forget-about-them-by-October fantasy baseball predictions.
• Phil Hughes, Part Deux
The move to Minnesota proved to be just the tonic to what ailed Hughes. Leaving the home run-heavy culture of the new Yankee Stadium (where Hughes allowed a HR in one of every 23 at-bats) was expected to smooth the rough edges for the right-hander, but if you watched the righty in 2014, you saw a guy carrying himself with confidence and control outside the Big Apple glare. Hughes was historic on the walk side (16 freebies in nearly 210 innings) and all those fly balls he gave up ended up in a mitt instead of a bleacher seat (he allowed a HR in one of every 38 at-bats at his new digs, Target Field). I predict that Hughes will be 90% of what he was last year ... that means 14-15 wins, a WHIP near 1.15, an ERA just about 3.50, and a K/9 settling in at 8.
• Mike Trout returns to his 30 steal level
The all-world fantasy pick came into spring camp claiming that he had 2 goals ... 1. Strike out less and, 2. Be more active on the base paths. Both have been addressed throughout March. He has gone down on three strikes just seven times in 47 ABs (with seven walks) and he's thieved four bags on five attempts. I predict that Trout will still whiff plenty (over 160 times), but I think that with a noticeable uptick in his average (he's quite simply, too good to hit below .290, again) and his walk rate (why even pitch him with a base open or runners on?), Trout will double his steals total from last season. Overall, fewer RBIs and HRs, but a better average and more of those all-important stolen bases.
• Ben Zobrist will lead all SS in runs
This goes in line with my willingness to assert that Billy Butler, Ike Davis, and Brett Lawrie, all produce 'good' seasons. Zobrist is currently slotted in as the number-3 guy in the Oakland batting order. He's an extra-base producing machine (34 or more doubles in each of the past four seasons) and the move to Oakland won't hurt him there (again, he aims for the gaps, not the walls). Zobrist also knows how to get on-base when luck isn't going his way. Throughout his career, he has smashed the league average OBP of .321, posting a mark of .354. That's all in thanks to a hugely impressive 0.77 BB/K ratio over a run of nine seasons. Count on him to get on-base again this year and I predict that he's up over 90 runs in 2015.
• A Resurrection for Jake Peavy
... of sorts. Actually, I think that anyone who takes a late-round flier on the forgotten vet will get a beauty of a return on their no-nothing investment. Check out what Peavy did last year after he got in touch with ace pitching coach, Dave Righetti. After looking and performing like a mess in Boston, Peavy returned to the NL and rolled to six wins, while shrinking his ERA to 2.17 and his WHIP to 1.04 in almost 80 innings. This year, I predict that the old man has one last go-around in him and will post 185 innings, 12-14 wins, an ERA near 3.20, a WHIP around 1.15, and even a jump in his K-rate, up to 7.5 per nine. These are not fantastic numbers, but these are numbers that make a difference as a 5th fantasy SP.
• All 5 current Boston starting pitchers will get rocked, injured, or both
The news will not be so good for Peavy's old team. I really have no idea what Boston is trying to do with their rotation. Look at it. It's a bunch of number 4 and 5 starters. Clay Buchholz is a mess from start-to-start, year-to-year. Rick Porcello is as normal and average as they come. Joe Kelly has the stuff, but not the knowledge of how to pitch or the health that you need, either. Wade Miley is 200 innings of mediocre pitching with command that is fleeting. And, Justin Masterson, has lost his velocity and can't get lefties out. Boston is hoping that getting a lot of ground balls from a below-average staff will last for six months. I predict that all of these guys struggle in the American League, a couple of them come up lame, and Boston finishes off the pace in the AL East standings.
• Kris Bryant will hit around .230
How is it humanly possible to go this long in a 2015 prediction piece, without mentioning the man who has kept us all in business for the past month?! Bryant will hit his share of home runs. And, the Cubs will get him into 130 games this season. But, he'll perform like so many other current major league power hitters ... when he isn't crushing the ball 400 feet, he'll be swinging-and-missing. That same profile leads to about a .230 (or, lower) batting mark. I predict that Bryant will get you the power you're wanting, but he won't be all that different from Pedro Alvarez by the end of his first campaign. Which leads me to ...
• Pedro Alvarez will hit over 30 home runs this year
This isn't a very 'out-there' statement, but I get the distinct impression that last season has thoroughly clouded the collective memories of the fantasy playing universe. After seasons of 30 and 36 wall-clearers, Alvarez dipped all the way down to just 18 last year. Those 18 came in 445 at-bats. He's over at 1B now, the Pirates are telling him not to worry about his defense, and he starts the season with a 'no pressure here' batting spot of number-6. The Pirates have a rather strong starting eight and Alvarez will feed off of it this year. I predict that he goes over 30 for the third time in his career, while again hitting about .235 with at least 175 whiffs. Hey, it's 2015, that's success, right?!
• Brett Lawrie fails to get to 126 games played for the 5th time in 5 seasons
We'll keep the 3B trend going. Lawrie is known the world over for being a fragile child. Freak injuries have curtailed any chance at producing up to his notable abilities. After four seasons of this stuff, his reputation is well-earned. I predict he'll find the DL a couple of more times with Oakland, but he will also be a very productive fantasy asset when he's on the field. So, yeah, you'll get what Lawrie is ... a good player with a good chance of injury. Feel free to draft him, just make sure that you have a quality back-up to plug in.
• All 3 San Diego outfielders have relative struggles in their new uniform
I don't fault the Padres for making the moves that they made this offseason. You've got to do something to enliven the fan base and to goose up your offense. After a decade of watching Petco Park scoreboards, it's a given that the place suppresses offense and fan enthusiasm. Now, they've got the enthusiasm, but will they get the offense? I predict that things will be better, but things will not be good. The team can absolutely compete for a Wild Card berth this year, but I don't think it will be because of a huge offensive effort. Justin Upton will hit more than 20 homers, but will not drive in over 90 nor hit above .265. Matt Kemp will limp his way through about 130 games, while going through spurts of production and droughts of limp contact. Will Myers will continue to find contact struggles. His counting numbers may not cause embarrassment, but the average and defense could. None of the three will be truly 'awful' this year, but all will fail to earn their current draft day investment cost.
• Tommy John Surgery for Homer Bailey
I make an injury prediction every year, and I've been mentioning this one for two months. Bailey has done NOTHING to dispel my opinion, as he's been little more than an uninvolved observer of the Reds' training camp. I predict that Bailey will undergo Tommy John surgery at some point this summer. His forearm has been hurting since last summer and a winter of rest didn't seem to alleviate much of the problem. I give credit to the organization for slow-playing things and not pushing their pitching centerpiece, but I believe that it's just delaying the inevitable.
• Kennys Vargas goes deep 25 times
Don't be overly afraid of Target Field's reputation. After all, Josh Willingham, hit 50 HRs over two seasons while playing his home games there. Vargas has legitimate big-time power. He's 'Chris Carter North,' if you will. And, Minnesota will treat him the same. He'll play 135 games and he'll get to swing for the fences with no fear of getting benched. The Twins have near-zero power in their lineup. Vargas is the threat that they must have to match opposing teams in the line score. I predict that the youngster will club 25 homers, alongside a huge amount of punch-out's and the relative mediocre average that comes with it.
• Neither Dee Gordon nor Jose Altuve manage 50 SBs
The problem for each of these speed demons is that they have to maintain a very high average in order to get to the half-century mark. They both did that last year. Look at the OBPs for these two (.377 for Altuve; .326 for Gordon) ... they're extremely low for guys who hit as well as they did last season (.341 for Altuve; .289 for Gordon). Altuve has a legit hitting tool, but I expect him to fall closer to .310 on the average front this year. Gordon is much closer to just being a slap hitter and we could see his average plummet 30-40 points. All in all, I predict that both men will see their average take a tumble and, thus, so will the number of bases that they pilfer this year.
• Jordan Walden is the closer for STL
I say this as someone who watched Trevor Rosenthal throughout 2014. His job is not firmly secured. Rosenthal misfired constantly and was consistently hopping in and out of danger on his way to 45 saves a year ago. His raw totals were great, but the way he put them together is cause for concern. In the offseason, the team demanded that they get Walden in the Jason Heyward trade. They did that so that they would have a proven back-up to the wild Rosenthal. Walden has won raves in camp and should be ready to step in and cover-up any issues in the 9th. I predict a mid-summer switcheroo that places Walden into the closers' role and sees him finishing the year with a chance at more than 20 saves.
You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.
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