Preseason Prep February 25th

Atlanta Braves

Braves Final Rotation Spot- On a team littered with potential position battles and platoons set to be decided this spring, the Braves rotation seems pretty well set in stone with the top four pitchers. The fifth starter battle could be interesting though as a top prospect, a form top prospect, and a wily veteran will be set to fight for the final spot. The newly acquired Mike Foltynewicz is probably the most enticing fantasy option among the three and that mainly stems from his career 7.65 K/9 numbers through the minors, and he struck out 14 in 16.2 innings in his brief call-up with the Astros last September. He also has the best pure stuff of the group, so Roger McDowell will look to harness Folty's potential on the mound. Candidate number two is Manny Banuelos, the former top prospect of the New York Yankees. It seems like forever ago that Man-Ban was one of the top prospects in baseball but Tommy John Surgery will do that to a player. He also has intrigue in his strikeout potential (9.00 K/9), but there are mixed reports on how well he threw coming back from the surgery so he'll need to be watched closely this spring. Now, I wouldn't even bring up Wandy Rodriguez normally, but the Braves got through as whole season of Aaron Harang being serviceable so I guess I will... Rodriguez signed with Atlanta after 18 starts combined over the last two seasons with Pittsburgh, 12 of which in 2013 he was serviceable (4.42 FIP, in 62.2 innings) and the final 6 last year were miserable (7.41 FIP, 25.6% HR/FB). If he does win the job (I'd give him the second best odds behind Folty) he's not worth owning at all while the other two could be NL-only or DEEP mixed league adds.

What's on Second? - Another position up for grabs in the Braves lineup is second with Jace Peterson, Alberto Callaspo, and Jose Peraza battling for the opening day start. Peterson, acquired in the Justin Upton trade, got a brief taste of the majors in 2014 and struggled mightily posting a .123 wOBA while striking out in 31% of his at-bats. His career minor league wOBA though is .357 so there is some room for optimism, especially when he was triple slashing .306/.406/.464 before his callup, so it's obvious he was overmatched at the major league level. Fantasy wise, at best he'd be nothing more than an empty AVG/OBP player with limited upside, even if he were to hit atop the Braves lineup. Callaspo is the favorite to win the job, and is probably the least enticing fantasy option of the bunch. He does have double digit power, but those came in seasons where he played over 135 games and I don't think he plays that many in 2015. Although he was playing in the O.co Coliseum, slugging .290 with a .067 ISO in 127 games is just plain bad. Peraza is the second baseman of the future and is by far the most intriguing fantasy option with his 40+ stolen base potential over a full season. Fredi Gonzalez has already called Peraza's chances a "long shot," but we will see his debut at some point in 2015. He has little to no power, but he puts the ball in play and can run which is the identity Atlanta is creating based on their offseason moves.

Houston Astros

Hank Conger, Bleh - The Astros have a few catchers in the mix the spring with Hank Conger being the favorite to win the job, which doesn't mean much for fantasy players. For a guy that raked all through the minors Conger has done the exact opposite in the majors with a career 84 wRC and that is reflected in his Fantistic's projection of being the, wait for it, 48th ranked catcher while one of his competitors, Jason Castro, is projected to finish better than him over a full season as the 20th best catcher. If Castro has all the upside, then why is Conger the favorite to get the starting nod? Defense and pitch framing. Which helps no one. Maybe with a strong spring Castro can snatch the job, but if he doesn't he's not a fantasy option as the Evan Gattis acquisition takes away the DH fall back spot for Castro.

Chris Carter, The Cheapest 40 Homers Money Can Buy? - Chris Carter is among the most powerful men in the game, but he has the most holes in his swing this side of Javier Baez. 2014 was a tale of two seasons for Carter posting a first half triple of slash of .205/.281/.465 (109 wRC) with 19 homeruns before erupting over the second half with a .252/.338/.521 slash (138 wRC) and 18 homeruns. The moral of the story is that average be darned Carter is going to hit homers with 31 being projected by Fantistics. Right now, he's projected to finish sandwhiched between Kevin Frandsen and Joc Pederson at 54th overall among outfielders, but he's being taken with other high upside players like Jorge Soler and Gregory Polanco in the 13th round. The program puts an auction value on him of just $1, and I'd take that every single draft while filling out my outfield.

Cleveland Indians

Can Kipnis return to top of position form? - After back to back seasons of 15HR/30SB seasons, Kipnis turned in a terrible 2014 with his wRC crashing down for 129 to 86. As the Fantstic's software notes, Kipnis was plagued by an oblique injury all year which had a large impact in his ability to effectively swing. Last year, in ESPN leagues Kipnis was on average taken with the 22nd pick in the draft but finished as the 16th ranked second baseman which is devastating for owners at such a top heavy position. Also from the software notes, Kipnis' HR/FB rate plummeted despite an increase in AVG homerun distance and batted ball speed making him an excellent bounce back candidate to return to top five form at the position.

Consensus Breakout Candidate: Carlos Carrasco - My full time job allows me to listen to many baseball podcasts during work and one name that has consistently came up as a player that analysts "love" and are predicting to breakout in his full time starting spot in 2015. Fantstic's is right there with the other groups in the industry and we are tabbing Carrasco as the 17th best pitcher this year. In 91.0 innings as a starter he owned a 2.54 FIP while striking out a ridiculous 28% of the batters he faced, a number typically held by a reliever. Keeping the ball in the yard helped Carrasco, posting a career low 6.2% as a starter. While he's unlikely to dip lower than that, as it's just unsustainable, that's one trending stat for him that has been steadily declining while he's been in the majors. Based on Fantistic's fantasy ADP, Carrasco is going in the same round as Gio Gonzalez (12th) which is just two rounds higher than Masahiro Tanaka and Yordano Ventura in the 14th.

Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles - Great news for the Orioles, fantasy owners, and baseball fans in general came Tuesday as Manny Machado received the all clear and will have no restrictions this spring. Machado is one player I'm absolutely targeting this season, even with the concerns of his health being extremely valid. His ADP currently is in the 15th round on Fantistics, one round behind Matt Carpenter, and a full six rounds behind Josh Harrison and I would take Machado over both. Last season in just 82 games he hit 12 homers compared to hitting just 14 in all of 2013. It appears that some of those 51 doubles from 2013 are now clearing the fence as he continues to grow and get stronger. Remember, Machado turns 23 midway through the season so there's much more room for growth.

Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals - The Cardinals' ace is heading to St. Louis to get his abdominal area looked at as he has been feeling some discomfort. Cardinals' brass already has said that they will limit his innings this spring as he has thrown over 200 innings in four of the last five seasons and in that fifth season he threw 198.2 innings. Wainwright was still great in the second half, but after he grooved one for Jeter at Target Field he had a down season. His FIP jumped almost a full run over the second half of the season and his K% dropped by nearly 5%, which is a calling card of Waino's. Fantistics has no worries about Wainwright though, ranking him as the 11th best starting option for 2015.

Ken Giles, Philadelphia Phillies - Giles was dominant in 45.2 innings last fall, and has already gotten lofty Craig Kimbrel comparisons thrown on him because of it. Although, when you strike out 12 per nine and have a devastating repertoire those comparisons aren't all extreme despite Kimbrel being among the game's best for a few years now. The Phillies are trying to move Jonathan Papelbon, and Giles is a very large reason because of that. He can come in and provide exactly what Papelbon can (or even more) for the league minimum salary instead of over $10 million per year. Fangraphs has Giles projected for just under 12 strikeouts per nine and a 2.93 FIP and if the Phillies are able to deal Papelbon his save numbers will jump as well. He's worth owning in NL Leagues now just because of his strikeout potential, and if you're in a holds league he becomes even more valuable.

Joba Chamberlain, Detroit Tigers - Chamberlain resigned with the Tigers Tuesday and will fit into the bullpen situation once again. Although Joakim Beniot is likely next in line if closer Joe Nathan were to falter Joba could get into the mix if he can pitch like he did in the first half of the season. His ERA jumped from 2.63 in the first half to almost 5.00 after the All-Star Break. His FIP correlates well on both ends that he actually was that good at one point and that bad at the other, as his ERA indicates. He's not fantasy relevant in any leagues now and it would take some serious bullpen implosion for him to get any consistent saves opportunities.

Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers - The Dodgers outfield situation basically boils down to that Andre Either wants to start or be traded. LA has a surplus of outfield talent with Carl Crawford, Yasiel Puig, Joc Pederson, and Either all fighting for three spots. With Crawford being penciled in for the leadoff spot after the Dee Gordon trade there remains one true centerfielder, Pederson, fighting for his spot against two corner outfielders in Puig and Ethier. So, if Pederson wins the centerfield job we have Puig vs. Ethier for the last spot and that competition isn't even close. I'd like to think that Friedman will be able to work out a deal for Ethier like he did with Matt Kemp in order to resolve the issue at hand.

Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies - Another day passes and Cole Hamels is still a Phillie, and it doesn't appear that anything is going to change that in the near-near future. Ruben Amaro wants a ransom for Hamels because he knows that he has to hit this trade with the overall lack of talent that is in the Phillies organization as a whole, not just the majors. The Red Sox have more available with the signing of Yoan Moncada, but it still seems unlikely that they are willing to part with either Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart. That is despite the overabundance of young major league ready talent at hand, especially in the outfield. Hamels' is a good value in fantasy, but he really needs a change of scenery in order to be a fantasy ace like we have been accustomed to seeing.

Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs - Bryant is going to be playing outfield for the Cubs this spring in addition to getting work at third base for the club. His situation will be one to monitor this spring as it's still unsure when we will see him debut in majors despite visually being ready for the league. We all know Bryant by this point and know the kind of power potential that he possesses, but the swing and miss concerns are still there for such a can't miss prospect. He's struck out in nearly a fourth of all his minor league at bats, but like George Springer, albeit Bryant having much better contact skills, he puts the ball in play with such force that he is able to offset the swing and miss issue. His draft status is hard to pinpoint, as he is going currently in the 11th round where you could get some better value maybe a round or two later if he is still there, or by selecting another third base option.

Brandon Beachy, Los Angeles Dodgers - Beachy signed on with the Dodgers as he continues his rehab from his second Tommy John surgery and being non-tendered by Atlanta this winter. Beachy has been throwing at about a distance of around 90-100 feet but has yet to throw off the mound yet in his recovery. For the Dodgers they are able to let Beachy take his time to get back to full strength owing him just under $3 million for this upcoming season. He could be an interesting second half option as in his best year with Atlanta, 2011, he recorded over ten strikeouts per nine and had an xFIP of only 3.16.

James Paxton, Seattle Mariners - James Paxton is a trendy sleeper for 2015 coming off of his performance down the stretch in 2014. He finished the year 6-4 with a 3.04 ERA (3.24 FIP) and with his skillset there's much optimism that he'll be as good as those numbers indicate in 2015. This difference between this year and last is that he has a full time spot in the rotation unlike last season where he had to compete for his starts. Fantistics projects him with 12 wins and a 3.50 ERA and I'd take the over on wins and under on ERA as some of his plate discipline peripherals took a drop last year that I think can rebound slightly to make him even better.

Dustin McGowan, Los Angeles Dodgers - In order to help provide some bullpen depth with the loss of Kenley Jensen the Dodgers took a flier on Dustin McGowan for a one year deal. McGowan was pretty terrible out of the Jays bullpen last year and he likely won't have any sort of high leverage role in the Dodgers pen. He'll more than likely have to pitch for his job once the pen gets back more towards full strength.

You can follow me on Twitter at @jsperry1991

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