Can the Tigers repeat as Central Division Champions?
Coming off an offseason that saw significant changes in its starting rotation, as well as injuries to its two best hitters, the ability of the Tigers to repeat as AL Central champs is in serious question for the first time in several years. Aside from needing to get Cabrera and V. Martinez healthy, the performance of the following players will go a long way toward determining whether the Tigers can capture the Central flag for the fifth year in a row:
Shane Greene (SP-DET). After an off-season trade from the Yankees, Greene is penciled in as the Tigers' fifth starter coming into spring training. Despite his lack of a top prospect pedigree, Greene performed solidly when called up by the Yankees to fill one of the many holes in their rotation in 2014, racking up 5 wins in 15 starts with a 3.78 ERA and a 9.27 K/9 rate. However, I do not believe Greene will be able to maintain the strikeout rate in 2015. His K-rate in the majors was significantly higher than anything he had managed in the minors (7.71 K per nine in AA in 2013 and 7.73 K per nine in AAA in 2014) and his 9.9% swinging strike rate doesn't really support his 23.9% K%. Having said that, his 50.2% GB rate and his 3.78 FIP in the majors do indicate some ability to sustain his success, and he will be pitching in what is certainly a more favorable environment in 2015. Our projections software forecasts a 3.75 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 167 Ks in 195 IP for Greene in 2015, which certainly makes him a viable late-round flier in standard leagues, and an affirmatively attractive sleeper candidate in AL-only formats.
Nick Castellanos (3B-DET). Castellanos failed to live up to his prospect hype in 2014, as he posted a somewhat disappointing .259/.306/.394 slash line, with 11 HR and 66 RBI. Castellanos remains an intriguing fantasy option for 2015, however, as with another year of growth, I would expect him to improve on his mediocre 2014 numbers. Castellanos hits line drives at an elite 28.5% rate and if he could improve on his .26 batting EYE, that line drive rate should lead to improvement in his batting average. Additional physical maturation should also result in an improvement in Castellanos' HR/FB from the 2014 rate of 7.5% to at least the league average of around 10%. Given that expected improvement, I would be comfortable taking Castellanos as an endgame corner infielder in deeper mixed leagues and I will be actively targeting Castellanos in AL-only leagues.
Jose Iglesias (SS-DET). Iglesias missed the entire 2014 season with stress fractures in both shins, but he is reportedly healthy and ready to take over as the Tigers' starting SS in 2015. However, fantasy owners are advised to look elsewhere for production at shortstop, as Iglesias is one of those players who are much better in real-life baseball than he is for fantasy purposes. In his one almost-full season in the majors, he put up a seemingly-impressive .303/.349/.386 slash line. However, that came with no power and little speed (3 HR and 5 SB in 382 PAs) and the BA was pure good fortune, as it was aided by a .356 BABIP that was not supported by Iglesias' 18.0% LD rate. Couple the foregoing with a .25 EYE and you have a player that will be lucky to hit .260 in 2015 (and in fact our software projects a .262 BA for Iglesias this year). Without the capability to hit .300, Iglesias' lack of power and speed makes him irrelevant for fantasy purposes. Don't be fooled into drafting him by his sexy 2013 numbers.
White Sox - Contenders or Pretenders?
The White Sox underwent an extensive overhaul in the offseason, adding an ace (Samardzija), a closer (Robertson) a first baseman (LaRoche) and an outfielder (Cabrera) to a 4th place club. These additions have led to some pennant fever in Chicago. However, the performances of these three holdovers may have as much or more to do with the team's results in 2015:
Alexei Ramirez (SS-CHA). Ramirez had a solid season in 2014, putting up a .273/.305/.408 line with 15 HR, 74 RBI and 21 SBs, which surprised many observers after a down year in 2013. While you should expect some slippage in the HR and SB categories (particularly the latter, given Ramirez' age), I still expect Ramirez to provide solid value in 2015, as his average should be sustainable (.292 BABIP in 2015, .295 for his career), and his counting stats should be better given the improved lineup around him. Our software projects Ramirez to hit .265, with 12 HR and 19 SBs, which, given the scarcity of talent in this year's SS pool, makes Ramirez a player to target, assuming he can be obtained at a reasonable cost.
Avisail Garcia (OF-CHA). I will admit to having a considerable man-crush on Garcia ever since seeing him in spring training last year. He just LOOKS like a baseball player. Unfortunately, however, appearances have yet to translate into actual fantasy production, due in large part to an injury that cost Garcia most of last season. In 190 PAs in 2014, Garcia hit an underwhelming .244/.305/.413 with 7 HR and he hit the ball on the ground a remarkable 56.2% of the time. However, with an offseason to recover from his shoulder industry, and a vastly improved White Sox lineup surrounding him, we anticipate that Garcia's power numbers will improve. Our software projects Garcia to hit .269 with 21 HR and 81 RBI. Garcia could also prove to be a sneaky source of SBs, as he stole 4 bases in his limited playing time last year and we project him for 9 in 2015, so, with a little luck and growth on Garcia's part, owners could have a 25/10 guy for the cost of a roughly 20th round draft pick (Garcia's current ADP is 225.4, making him an 18th to 22nd round draft choice, depending on league size). I would be more than happy to fill my 5th OF spot with this kind of upside.
Jose Quintana (SP-CHA). Quintana continues to be one of the most underrated pitchers around for fantasy purposes. Although his win total suffered due to the feebleness of the White Sox' offense and the catastrophe that was the Chicago bullpen in 2014, Quintana's numbers were otherwise solid, as he posted a 3.32 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 178 Ks in 200.1 innings, while also racking up a 5.3 WAR number, which was one of the highest numbers for any pitcher not named Kershaw. Except for the strikeouts (his 8.3% swinging strike rate doesn't really support the 21.5% K% that Quintana managed in 2014), the other numbers should be sustainable, as evidenced by the fact that Quintana's ERA was 3.32 despite suffering from an unlucky .318 BABIP and 69.2% BABIP. I would expect similar, if not slightly lower ERA and WHIP numbers from Quintana in 2015, along with better luck in the win category due to the improvements the ChiSox have made to their offense and bullpen. Production along those lines would make Quintana a fantastic bargain at his current ADP of 183.8.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Everth Cabrera (SS-BAL). The Orioles signed Cabrera to a one-year contract Wednesday. Cabrera is now probably the leading candidate to start at 2B for the Orioles, and AL-only owners should track this situation closely. Cabrera was a huge disappointment in 2014, putting up a weak .232/.272/.300 line with only 18 SBs in 26 attempts, and getting popped for DUI to boot. Should he win the Orioles' 2B job, Cabrera is relevant in AL only leagues simply because of his speed, but I would stay away from Cabrera as anything other than a late-round flier in any other format, as the his career is not trending in a positive direction.
Jonathan Schoop (2B-BAL). The Cabrera signing unfortunately casts a cloud over Schoop's fantasy value for 2015, as it calls his playing time into question. Although Schoop has some serious plate discipline issues (his EYE is .11!), he did provide significant pop (16 HRs in 481 PAs in 2014) at a position at which power was scarce. Although he will be a significant drag in the BA category, that is less of a problem in this day and age, with the overall MLB batting average sitting right around the .250 mark. However, his status as a potential late-round sleeper for those in need of power has taken a serious hit with his playing time now questionable. If he wins the 2B job, he is worth a late round flier, but otherwise, owners are advised to stay away.
Nick Markakis (OF-ATL). Markakis, who is coming off of neck surgery, was cleared to run and work out yesterday, but there is still no target date as far as him playing in spring training games. Given the uncertainty as to his health and the dumpster fire that is likely to be the Atlanta offense this year, I will be staying far away from Markakis in drafts this year. Our projections software pegs Markakis for a .283 BA with 79 runs, 16 HR and 54 RBI, and I think that prediction is probably optimistic as far as the counting stats, given what is likely to around him in the Atlanta lineup. Markakis is probably not draftable in standard mixed leagues.
Jimmy Rollins (SS-LAN). Dodgers' manager Don Mattingly indicated that he is not sold on using Rollins as his leadoff hitter in 2015. This is not good news, because if Rollins doesn't lead off, he will likely wind up batting in the lower third of the Dodger order, which would significantly impair his fantasy value. Rollins is likely going to be overvalued in drafts this year, both because of the perceived position scarcity at SS and because owners will be expecting him to put up numbers similar to the .243/.323/.394, 78 run, 17 HR, 28 SB line he posted in 2014. However, the power numbers will almost certainly drop, given his switch from hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park to Dodger Stadium and his run and SB totals will suffer if he is not hitting toward the top of the lineup. Even Rollins' current ADP of 148.0 is too rich for my blood, given the high likelihood of a substantial drop in performance.
Drew Smyly (SP-TB). The Rays announced Wednesday that Smyly will probably not make his spring debut until March 10th or 11th, due to a throwing schedule that is less intense than the other Rays' pitchers. There is nothing physically wrong with Smyly, this is just a personal preference on his part. Smyly is a pitcher I will be targeting heavily this year, as I believe that the performance gains he made after being traded to Tampa are sustainable and that he will have a true breakout year in 2015, making him a great bargain at his current ADP of 193.4.
Desmond Jennings (OF-TB). Rays' manager Kevin Cash indicated that he is leaning toward batting Jennings fifth or sixth this year. While ordinarily a drop from the leadoff position would be considered bad for a player's fantasy value, that may not be the case here. Jennings has always been miscast as a leadoff man, given his career .327 OBP and .47 EYE, so perhaps a placement lower in the order will improve his production. At a minimum, he should improve on his total of 36 RBI from 2014. While i certainly wouldn't recommend spending an early draft pick on Jennings, if he can achieve our projection of .261 with 12 HR and 22 SBs, he will certainly be worth picking at his current 298.0 ADP.
Josh Hamilton (OF-LAA). Hamilton has been summoned to meet with MLB officials regarding a "disciplinary issue." This cannot be good news, considering Hamilton's past issues with drugs and alcohol. Given that he is also slated to miss a good portion of the early season, it's time to completely cross Hamilton off your draft lists, if you haven't done so already.
Peter O'Brien (C-ARI). According to the Dbacks website, O'Brien has been putting on some impressive shows in batting practice. Given his power potential (39 HR over four minor league stops last year) and the general state of the Dbacks catching situation (Tuffy Gosewich is currently slated to start the season behind the plate), O'Brien is definitely worth a stash in deeper NL-only leagues, as he is likely to make his ML debut sometime during 2015. O'Brien comes with considerable BA risk (he hit only .245 with the Yankees AA affiliate) and there is some question as to his ability to stay behind the plate long-term, but the power potential is worth a gamble, particularly if he is called up relatively early in the season.
