Pittsburgh Pirates:
Should We Be "Jung Ho" About Kang?
There is "zero intent" to start Jung Ho Kang in the minors. This is according to Pirates' General Manager Neil Huntington, who shared his thoughts about the KBO shortstop adjusting to life with the big club. Huntington did stop short of committing to him as a fixture in the lineup to begin the season, but the competition is now open at short. Kang had a monster year, albeit in the hitter-friendly KBO, hitting .356 with 40 homers and an incredible .739 slugging percentage. Many scouts see his swing as too long to sustain anything close to a .300 AVG., but he showed a solid .70 EYE the past two seasons in Korea. We can see a 15-20 homer season if the AB's are there. While there is concern with Kang's defense, he has a solid chance in Spring to beat Jordan Mercer for the job; at the very least, he should be a sneaky late pick for the upside as long as expectations are kept in check.
I'm Not Joshing
Many in the fantasy baseball community are projecting a significant regression for Josh Harrison, who posted a .315/.347/.490 line (.365 wOBA) with 13 homers, 18 steals, and 77 runs scored despite not being a full time player until over a month into the 2014 season. While I agree that some regression is in order, I think it's a mistake to write off Harrison for 2015 and to expect a significant downturn. Many are hanging their doomsday scenarios on two issues: Harrison's .353 BABIP and his aggressiveness at the plate. With 1052 AB's in the Majors, we aren't quite there in terms of the magic number to see his own batted ball profile stabilize (and I would argue not close, since part-time AB's are different than full time AB's). However, Harrison posted a solid 24% LD rate last season, and in looking at his BABIP on batted ball type, the only area I see him facing pressure on his AVG is on his luck with flyballs, which is likely to push is AVG into the .280-.290 range. Harrison posted well-above average BABIP's in the upper-minors and was a perennial .300 hitter. Most importantly, he was finally given full time AB's; as those full-time AB's continue this season, especially as a lead-off-man, look for him to tap into the EYE he showed in the upper-minors and continue to adjust to MLB pitching. His flyball distance and speed-off-bat numbers are well below average, so don't expect more than a dozen homers. Otherwise, everyone else's focus on the surface BABIP is your gain.
Vote for Pedro?
What do we make of the enigma that is Pedro Alvarez? What an odd 2014 it was for the slugger. Shockingly, despite a myriad of injuries, the lefty lowered his swinging-strike rate by 3%, increased his contact rate by 5%, maintained elite home run distance and speed-of-bat numbers, and enhanced his EYE from .26 to .40. So why is the universe so low on him? Well, it's mostly because the Pirates are so low on him, which is likely to cut into his playing time considerably. Alvarez's defense was absolutely ATROCIOUS in 2014, which provided Josh Harrison with the opportunity to seize the full time gig at 3B and prompted the Pirates to experiment with Pedro at 1B. The fact that he reportedly skipped a minicamp last month, one in which he was to work on his fielding, isn't going to prompt the Pirates to remove him from the dog house anytime soon. Add to this his continued travails against lefties (.232 wOBA) and the looming presence of both Corey Hart and Josh Bell, and I question how many AB's he will receive in 2015. Keep an eye on things in Spring Training, as all indications point that Alvarez still has the skills to hit 30+ homers. All he needs is an opportunity.
Future Thieves of the Sea
Allen Hanson has huge fantasy appeal up the middle, but the Pirates aren't likely to call upon him until late in the season for a 2016 audition. Former first round pick Jameson Taillon is still on the mend from Tommy John surgery, although he also could see some action later in the season if all progresses appropriately. Tyler Glasnow won the MiLB Starting Pitcher of the Year in 2014, although he has yet to throw a pitch in AA, so 2016 is a more likely target for his arrival. The man that could work his way to Pittsburgh in 2015 is their 2011 2nd round pick, Josh Bell. After enduring an inauspicious start to his career, the switch-hitter flashed the skills that prompted the Pirates to pony up that huge signing bonus four years ago. He posted a .325/.375/.459 line in 108 games across the high-A and AA levels, although he is still working to tap into his power during games (only 9 homers). Bell handles the stick and shows excellent plate coverage from both the left and right sides, which, with a hot start at AA, could prompt the Pirates to tab him as the man on deck should the Alvarez/Hart platoon falter due to performance or injury. He is likely 1-2 years away from tapping into his true power, but is still a man to keep tabs on in deeper leagues for 2015, as his advanced hit tool could still provide value.
The Holdzkom Handcuff?
We here at Fantistics like to look for high-upside set up men who, even if they don't find their way into saves, could still provide valuable innings for your fantasy squad. While many will be looking to expensive options like Andrew Miller, Casey Janssen, and Kelvim Herrera, John Holdzkom could prove nearly as valuable for 2015. Don't get me wrong; I love Mark Melancon. But should injury or ineffectiveness strike, this is the man you want. Holdzy struggled to find success in the Mets' and Reds' minor league systems, as well as the Independent Association, and we can impute those struggles on his poor control (with a 6'7" frame, there is no wonder!). However, a light bulb went off for him in AA and AAA, and, in a brief audition down the stretch, Holdzy struck out 14 and walked 2 in 9 solid innings, averaging 96 MPH with his fastball and hitting upwards of 100 on the gun. He seems to be a favorite for a spot in the 6th/7th innings, but look for him to work his way into a significant role in 2015. He'll bring tons of K's, plenty of holds, and if the control holds up, he'll work his way to next-in-line status.
Around the League:
Brad Boxberger (RP-TB): BB is going 250th off the board in NFBC drafts, which is some 60 spots lower, on average, than Jake McGee. While the Rays sound optimistic that McGee is ahead of schedule in recovering from minor elbow surgery, he is still, in the best-case scenario, likely to be out until late April. Will he, again assuming best-case scenario, reclaim his job? I'm skeptical. Brad Boxberger posted an INCREDIBLE 42% K-rate to go along with a respectable 8% BB-rate, and in tapping into the promise he showed in the minors, increased his velocity to 93 MPH on his AVG fastball. When you pair this with a nasty changeup that neutralizes left-handed hitters, it's no wonder he posted a 14% swinging-strike rate. While Betances and Giles are receiving lots of attention, Boxberger could easily post similar numbers by season's end.
Johnny Cueto (SP-CIN): The Reds are reportedly pushing hard to sign the man with exceptional hair to an extension and have until opening day to do so. While the Reds are in hot pursuit to retain his services, fantasy owners should be weary of his 40 ADP in the NFBC (9th SP taken overall on average). Prior to 2014 Cueto had logged over 186 innings in a season only one time, so while it's encouraging to see him pitch 240+ innings, I'm not convinced he is over the ailments caused by his inimitable delivery. When you look at the 2.25 ERA/3.21 xFIP, you can definitely see some natural regression on the horizon, as his 83% LOB rate and .238 BABIP are significantly different from his career norms. We like him as a top-of-the-rotation option in 2015, but see him as a top 70-player as opposed to a top 40.
Cole Hamels (SP-PHI): According to reports, four teams sent serious offers to the Phillies in an attempt to pry Cole Hamels out of Philadelphia. Hamels had yet another solid season, reaching 200 innings for the 5th consecutive year and posting a career-low 2.46 ERA. While there may be some regression in store--his 82% LOB and 8% HR/FB rate portend it--Hamels enjoyed a stellar 24% K-rate that was backed by an increase in velocity on his fastball. While it appears that the Phillies are shooting for the moon in a deal, making it likely that a trade won't be consummated until the summer months, Hamels makes for a solid option near the top of your rotation. Just remain cognizant of his likely run support.
Chase Headley (3B-NYY): Currently the 222nd pick on AVG in the NFBC, Chase Headley makes for an appealing consolation prize should you miss out on the top tier at 3B. He posted an impressive 105 MPH AVG speed off bat to go along with a 408 feet as his AVG home run distance. Additionally, he lowered his swinging-strike rate by a significant 3% and increased his contact rate by an impressive 6% as compared to his 2013 season. Fresh of a new deal in the offseason, full-time AB's are his for the taking, making him a sneaky fallback option at 3B and a serviceable CI option in standard leagues.
Jason Kipnis (2B-CLE): Despite undergoing finger surgery in December, Jason Kipnis is ahead of schedule and looks to be on track to fully participate in Spring Training, according to multiple sources out of Cleveland. While it was a disappointing 2014 for Kipnis and his fantasy owners, much of that, we believe, can be attributed to health (hamstring, oblique, and finger). He still maintained solid plate coverage, increasing his contact rate, and even maintained his AVG homerun distance and SOB numbers from prior seasons. My one concern, assuming perfect health, is his reversion last season to early troubles against lefties; after posting a .371 wOBA against same-siders in 2013, he plummeted back to a .229 mark in 2015. Overall, he is still a worthwhile selection around his NFBC ADP of 73.
Victor Martinez (DH-DET): While VMART feared the worse initially, it turns out that the Tigers may have dodged a bullet with the severity of the knee injury. All reports indicate the completion of successful surgery and an expected recovery of 4-6 weeks, putting him on track to return in Spring Training. While his 103 SOB and 387 AVG HR distance are solid, it's difficult to see them sustaining that 16% HR/FB rate he posted last year, a number some 6% higher than his career (and league) norm. Having such a spike in his power at age 35/36 is puzzling. While he is still unquestionably one of the best hitters in the league, the likely decline in power, combined with the uncertainty of yet another knee operation, compels me to drop him slightly in the rankings.
Daniel Norris (SP-TOR): The Blue Jays appear set for an open competition for the 5th slot in the rotation, and Daniel Norris is a man to watch. After struggling previously to find consistency in his delivery with that tall, lanky frame (he walked 46 in 90 innings in 2013), Norris finally put things together in a big way in 2014, striking out a whopping 163 batters and walking a respectable 43 in 124 innings across three MiLB levels. While his brief stint in the Majors showed that he is still a work in progress, I see him as one of the more intriguing breakout candidates to watch this Spring; even if he doesn't break camp, I still see him making an impact in 2015. And yes, it's true: he does live in a van down by the river!
Garrett Richards (SP-LAA): Today is an important day for Garrett Richards and his prospective fantasy owners, as he'll take the mound for the first time since brutally injuring his knee while covering firstbase on August 20th. Richards showed he was the real deal last season, harnessing his stuff and increasing his velocity to 96 MPH on his AVG fastball. While his 4% HR/FB rate portends some regression, the underlying indicators suggest that his 3.15 xFIP is a reasonable expectation. Watch closely today and throughout the Spring, but from all indications, he should end up being a steal at #169 overall in NFBC drafts.
Dayan Viciedo (OF-FA): According to reports out of Cleveland, the Indians are kicking the tires on signing Viciedo to a Major League contract. While the man clearly has contact issues (75% rate, 5% below league average), he did show improvement in his chase rate last season and still managed to smack 21 homers thanks to his superior speed off bat. Somebody will sign him, likely for a part-time role, but he still should be on the radar of those in 15+ team leagues.
Christian Walker (1B-BAL): It's not often that a prospect that received a cup of coffee gets overlooked the following year, but that's exactly what's happening with Mr. Walker. The 23 year old belted 25 home runs across AA and AAA in 2014 while posting a bearable 24% K-rate. While Travis Snider's arrival muddies the picture of Walker, as Snider can handle lefties quite well, I see Walker as the next in line and a man who can assist those in deeper leagues in 2015. For those in keeper/dynasty formats, this could be your last chance to buy low.
Jered Weaver (SP-LAA): With a 200 AVG ADP in the NFBC, Jered Weaver has fallen considerably from where he stood during the past several seasons. While his velocity fell yet again to 86 MPH AVG on his fastball, Weaver still maintained his effectiveness thanks to his incredible arsenal, ability to change speeds, and command. He has a preternatural ability to induce weak contact, which has proven to be vital to his success despite being a heavy flyball pitcher and has enabled him to continually defy the DIPS. After pitching 236 innings in 2011, Weaver has struggled to go deeper into games. He has reportedly added bulk in the offseason in an attempt to eclipse the 213 innings he posted last season. While he shouldn't be drafted as a #1 or #2 anymore, don't forget about him.
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