Even after all these years, we still struggle to understand and interpret what Spring Training numbers mean.
A year ago, Kansas City's Mike Moustakas pounded the ball in the thin Arizona air, finishing his spring with four HRs, 18 RBIs, a .429 batting average, and 11 walks to just eight strikeouts ... all in less than 60 at-bats. That shot him up the ADP boards and, foolishly, even those in 12-team mixed leagues were gunning to draft Moustakas as their starting 3B.
We all know what happened. He didn't surpass his spring home run total until June 10th. He didn't equal his RBI total until June 2nd. He finally earned his 11th walk on May 16th. And, of course, his batting average was an embarrassment, coming in at .212.
With that example in mind, I'm going to tread into the dangerous, bust-infested waters of players who could see ADP jumps over the next six weeks. Some have a chance to win a full-time spot. Others are coming off an injury-riddled season. And, still others, just need something - anything! - to go right for them to re-store faith from fantasy players. Their current ADP is presented in parentheses and come courtesy of Greg Ambrosious with the NFBC. To conclude on each player, I've provided a rough estimate of what kind of jump they can make if the spring stars do align.
Kris Bryant (current ADP 103)
Geez, can the ADP actually go higher?? Bryant is being drafted as if he will be manning the hot corner on Opening Day. It's not impossible, but it's not very likely. Still, he can hit. That's for certain. He should get plenty of spring chances with the Cubs and if the team surprises us by giving him the nod for the start of 2015, just watch the ADP number shrink.
ADP if all goes right - Near 80
Allen Craig (316)
Craig doesn't have health. He doesn't have a position. And, he doesn't have anything to feel good about from 2014. After back-to-back 90+ RBI seasons, Craig crashed-and-burned in 2015. Boston really wants to make use of him and if he does stay upright and he shows off anything resembling his former self, he'll see at-bats. Unlike many others on this list, Craig has proven he can power a fantasy team when he is going right. If he's going right entering April, you'll see his ADP up around 225 entering the year.
ADP if all goes right - 240
Tim Lincecum (453)
Fantasy owners will look for any excuse to draft Lincecum. A good spring would give them a very easy excuse. The Giants are giving him another go of it in their 5-man. His K/9 dumped all the way down to 7.7 a year ago and, at this point, his control has been gone for three full seasons. Mechanically, he must get things straightened out. There are all sorts of pre-camp musings about his 're-commitment to the game' and the re-tuning of his motion with his father this offseason. It's tough for me to buy any of it. I know, though, that there will be a load of late-March fantasy buyers if he's dialed in this spring.
ADP if all goes right - 380
Carlos Martinez (295)
Martinez arrives at camp as the de facto, 5th starter in the Cardinals' rotation. He'll have some competition from both Jaime Garcia and Marco Gonzalez, but the team has practically promised him the job as long as he doesn't completely fall flat. Here's a pitcher with all the tools, but he still has to learn how to use them, when to use them, and where to use them. A string of solid starts down in Florida will manage to turn heads and could cause a noticeable lift in his ADP. Frankly, sitting near 300, right now, is very low for a guy with this much skill and a mostly-set role.
ADP if all goes right - 255
Dalton Pompey (269)
There's a little bit of a hum behind Pompey as we near March. Toronto just needs to see that their young centerfielder can match up against MLB-level pitching. If he struggles to an average under-.220, you're not going to see him too often. In a perfect world, he could become someone similar to Adam Eaton or Kole Calhoun. That perfect world won't be in 2015, but Pompey can craft a little more ADP love with a good first impression to fantasy players in the spring.
ADP if all goes right - 230
Alex Rodriguez (337)
All it's going to take to push A-Rod into the top 250 is a reminder of what used to make him so special. If he comes to Florida and pops four or five balls over the wall, you'll see a large portion of fantasy owners clamoring to get him as their starting 3B. Right now, he is the 26th 3B off the board ... barely ahead of Luis Valbuena! Currently, the Yanks have a logjam of DH-types on their roster. But, if Rodriguez is hitting, they won't be able to ignore him. His spring will have a MAJOR effect on his ADP - probably more than any other player in baseball.
ADP if all goes right - 240
Wilin Rosario (142)
Talk about an unsettled situation. Rosario was seen as a centerpiece to the Colorado offense exactly 12 months ago. Now, he doesn't have a position. His defense behind the dish has always been atrocious. Justin Morneau is in his way at first. And, even when Carlos Gonzalez comes up gimpy, no one wants to experience Rosario's bumble bee act in the outfield. Still, if hits and hits in spring, they will force him into the daily lineup. There's another shoe that could drop here, too ... he could be traded to a team that has an opening for him. But, let's be honest, even with a better grip on playing time, Rosario's ADP would fall with no Coors effect to boost his bat. His career OPS is a close to 200 points higher at home versus the other 29 major league stadiums.
ADP if all goes right - 125
Ryan Rua (545)
Power plays in today's game. Many will accept a .230 batting average if you bring the threat of sending a baseball 400 feet away with every swing. Rua has that kind of profile. Whispers out of the Texas front office have indicated that the team is really hoping Rua wins the LF job. He's never going to get a Gold Glove vote, but again, the power is what interests. His current ADP means he's going undrafted in a vast majority of leagues. He could rise all the way to bench-level in 12-team leagues with a notable spring and the presumed starting spot that would follow.
ADP if all goes right - 400
Yasmany Tomas (147)
The unknown will become (slightly more) known by the end of March. Fantasy players love power and if Tomas shows any of it in camp, he'll creep up 30-40 spots from his current perch. The Diamondbacks want to have him at 3B, but if his mitt doesn't hold up there, he could land many starts in the Arizona outfield. Thus, we'd have infield-outfield eligibility from a clubber who can net you 20+ homers. I consider the third base spot to be fairly deep. For me, Tomas is in a very thick 3rd-tier of guys at the position. I will be much more willing to draft a proven guy over the 'what-if?' of Tomas.
ADP if all goes right - 125
Mark Trumbo (93)
Tomas' teammate just needs to remind all of us of what he can be. There was all sorts of interest in him a year ago as he arrived in Phoenix after a trade out of Anaheim. He slugged seven home runs in his first 21 games, but then went down for nearly three months with broken heel. Nothing worked when he got back to playing, either. If you cornered me, asking whom is the 35 home run bat that no one is discussing, my answer would be Trumbo.
ADP if all goes right - 75
Jung-ho Kang (304)
Pittsburgh's shortstop is in nearly the same situation as Tomas. We just have to see something with our eyes. The Korean numbers he posted were insane (a .356 batting average with 40 HRs in 117 games!), be we know that they won't make the trip across the Pacific. Kang has an opportunity to create excitement because the collection of shortstops in MLB is very uninspiring. Understand that he must win a job in Pirates' camp, but if that happens, you can bet Kang will surge within his position.
ADP if all goes right - 260
Rafael Soriano (335), Francisco Rodriguez (204)
I'm putting these two together because they are in the exact same situation. They're both looking for a gig as camps fire up and if it eventually comes in the right place, they could jump 75 spots in the span of a day. The 'right place' is not with the L-A Dodgers. The fact that Kenley Jansen is supposed to be back in May means that either Soriano or K-Rod would just be a placeholder. They're aiming for more. If we see a major injury to a closer in the next month and we see a desperate team pay a hefty price for one of these two, then this number adjusts. If those things don't happen, these ADPs won't budge ... in fact, they'll go in reverse.
ADP if all goes right - 300 for Soriano and 170 for Rodriguez
You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.
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