5 Who Could Pull a 'Brantley' in 2015 by Kyle Elfrink

On the eve of the 2014 Major League Baseball season, Cleveland's Michael Brantley, was just another ho-hum guy. Over the course of two full seasons and parts of three others, the outfielder had shown little to turn heads. With nearly 2,000 at-bats to his name, he had just a .711 career OPS. He often was showered with the compliment that said he was a player who 'wouldn't hurt you,' in the fantasy game.

Brantley did not hurt a fantasy playing soul in '14. In fact, he ended up being one of the top performers in all the game. He entered the rarified air of legitimate 5-cat producer with a monstrous .327 average that was buttressed by nearly 100 RBIs, nearly 100 runs scored, and over 20 thefts. So, how did 'run-of-the-mill' become 'big-time fantasy deal'?

The simple answer is that three significant numbers all came together. Brantley made contact on a remarkable 91% of the pitches he offered at (Four players were better him and three of those were of the slap-hitting variety). His line drive percentage was all the way up at 26%, good enough for a top 10 MLB-ranking. And, one of out of every 10 hits went for extra bases (he'd never had even one of every 12 before last season).

It will likely go down as a career-best season for the soon-to-be 28-year old. He's still a solid bet to repeat a few numbers from a year ago, but to me, counting on another across-the-board effort is putting stock in the wrong account.

Now, as we turn our gaze to 2015, who are some possible 'Brantley's' out there? Players who have just 'gone with the flow,' thus far, in their careers. They've been drafted every season and they've flashed plenty of skill. But, they've yet to piece it all together into one beautiful, dream-like, fantasy powerhouse season like Brantley did a year ago. Rick Steves Guidebook in hand, I hit the trail to find the top possibilities. I limited my search to guys who are nowhere near the upper-end of their positions and here's what I came up with.

Matt Wieters

The 'future star' is not only the victim of expectations, but he's also a victim of a Tommy John surgery. Right now, all signs indicate he'll be set to go for Opening Day. Going with a catcher in this spot isn't the smartest move, but Wieters can handle DH at-bats, too, so getting over 140 games is very possible (he averaged right at 140 in the four seasons before he blew out his elbow).

His power is absolutely there. In fact, it's better than Brantley's. The key for Wieters is getting his batting average up. As of now, he's a career sub-.260 hitter. He has to get up to .290 to make the kind of jump that I'm talking about. That, of course, requires a BABIP getting well over .300. Wieters has slowly climbed the LD% charts and he does not whiff very often (better than the league average for his career). Many have pled for Wieters to give up switch-hitting. He's at .280 vs. LHPs in his career, but a shade under.250 vs. RHPs in his MLB run. He has shrunk the differential between the two numbers in the past few years, so maybe that trend can pick up some speed.

Speaking of speed ... one major hindrance to Wieters getting to 'Superstar'-level is that he moves slower than an episode of Downtown Abbey.

Chances of being 2015's 'Brantley' - 25%

Brandon Belt

A couple of weeks back in this space, I touched on Belt's presumed ascension to the 3-spot in the San Francisco batting order. Not every number three hitter takes off, but if Belt can find a way to get 125 games at that spot in the order, he could achieve new heights. Remember, before Brantley batted 3rd 126 times last year, he'd gotten a slender 11 games there from 2009-13.

Beyond the prime spot in the lineup, there's the question of Belt remaining in one piece over the course of a full season. A broken thumb and on-going concussion issues sprung up on him last season. So, in effect, I'd write off most of what we saw and would choose to instead focus on the signs of growth in 2013 when he slashed to a .289/.360/.481 mark. Before breaking out a season ago, Brantley had never hit any of those three marks in any of his first four go-arounds.

Belt definitely has a game that can profile at .290/20+/80/80/10+. Keeping him slotted at 3 and keeping him on the field could give many of us a huge payoff in 2015.

Chances of being 2015's 'Brantley' - 45%

Dexter Fowler

As he arrives at Wrigley Field to become the 'veteran presence', Fowler also arrives at 'The Last Chance Saloon' in the fantasy world. He's got the talent and a game that profiles well, but as with Brantley pre-2014, it just hasn't happened.

Entering a free agent push, maybe Fowler will figure it out this season. He's as steady as they come if you consider a solid average, decent steals, and a strong ability to get on-base, the requisites. But, just like some others on this list, Fowler has to find his way to 140 games. It's an achievement he's pulled off just once in the past six seasons.

Assuming the games played mark is there, Fowler has a solid chance of loading up on some runs atop the Chicago lineup. There's pop to be found with nearly all of the guys behind him, so as long as he posts his usual .370 OBP, Fowler can touch home plate 90 times. Last season, 10 of the top 14 runs scored efforts were totaled by players that were .370 or below. Fowler has a great chance to leap in that category.

Elsewhere, the double-digit homers could develop in the summer heat of Chicago. Fowler's new manager, Joe Maddon, is known as an aggressive green-light man, so he may give Fowler a shot at a return to the mid-20s for steals. The question will be lifting the average to near-.300. We always search for a career BABIP North of .300 and we have it here ... Fowler is at a robust .348. In other words, getting to the glory level of .300 is not too far-fetched.

Chances of being 2015's 'Brantley' - 55%

Alex Gordon

Gordon would totally own the top odds in this field if not for the mid-winter wrist surgery that he had done. As we arrive at camp, the Royals' centerpiece is still awaiting clearance on the injured area. If Gordon has to 'take it easy' leading up to the arrival of April, I have to pull back on expectations.

BUT ... here's a guy who is one of just five players in all of baseball to post at least a 4 WARP (using the equations of Baseball Prospectus) in each of the past five years (the others being Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Andrew McCutchen, and Adrian Beltre). A portion of that is crafted by a strong defensive game, but Gordon also brings a legitimate bat the table. He is the most unheralded 5-category helper in fantasy baseball. All of the pieces to the puzzle are there.

Can he go for this kind of line - .303/23/87/101/17? Why not? He's hit each of those season marks before in his career. In other words, getting to them is possible because he's done all of them before.

Chances of being 2015's 'Brantley' - near 60%

Michael Saunders

Let's conclude with a true wild card. Saunders reportedly talked and complained his way out of Seattle. Good for him. The M's didn't seem to have any coherent idea of what they had in Saunders. They provided a short leash and, in essence, told him that they thought he was a platoon player, at best.

Now, he lands in the homer-haven of Toronto and has been given a wide-open freeway to becoming the teams' new left-fielder. Durability (again) is the biggest roadblock for the 28-year old. The talent is on-hand, though. Let's recall that he was headed towards a career year in 2014 before being stifled by an oblique injury that sliced 50 games off his chart.

He has the ability at over 20 steals and at the Rogers Centre Saunders can absolutely deposit 20 balls over the gates. Outside of showing up day in, day out, it would be a godsend to get Saunders out of the bottom half of the order. I'd like to see him, at the very least, hitting behind Josh Donaldson, manning the 6th spot. Thinking ahead, note that if the Jays face an injury to either Russell Martin or Jose Reyes (is anyone willing to bet against that?!), Saunders would be the logical man to ascend in the lineup. That's where the real numbers can be totaled up.

Chances of being 2015's 'Brantley' - 30%

You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.

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