AL Player Analysis - September 8, 2014

Shane Greene -- Greene bounced back from his worst outing of the year on Sunday, surrendering just 2 runs (neither earned) on 5 hits and 3 walks in 5 innings while striking out 4 batters. It was an encouraging performance for a guy who has some question marks and who allowed 6 runs in his last turn out there. Greene's minor league numbers don't make him look like much of a prospect, and he's not a guy you heard scouts ever mention very much, but I'm a big fan of his stuff. He works everything off a 94-mph sinker with good run, but he'll also mix in a four-seamer and a cutter. His most effective off-speed pitch, however, is his hard, sweeping slider. He also has a change-up that he doesn't use very frequently but certainly flashes plus, and trusting that pitch will ultimately be the key to his success. A player who relies primarily on a sinker/slider combo will often encounter platoon issues, but the change-up plus the four-seamer and cutter would make Greene an effective all-around pitcher and one to consider a serious sleep in deep mixed and AL-only leagues next year.

Carlos Carrasco -- Carrasco turned in yet another dominating performance on Sunday, missing a complete game shutout by a single out while K-ing 8 batters with 0 walks. This late season surge will make Carrasco a popular fantasy sleeper in 2015, and not without reason. Carrasco was once a legitimate prospect who dealt with injuries and off-the-field issues, but he may finally be maturing and coming into his own. His velocity is up to 97 mph this year, and that's not just in his bullpen work. He's remained there since joining the rotation, and he'll mix in a hard slider, a curve, and a filthy change-up that falls off the table. The stuff is there, the pedigree is there, and the control issues that plagued him as a prospect have largely dissipated.

Drew Smyly -- It was reported on Sunday that Rays starter Drew Smyly may have already thrown his last pitch on 2014. He was slated for one more start before undergoing an innings-limited-related shut down, but the Rays may play it safe with their prize mid-season return from the David Price trade. Smyly has excelled since the trade deadline deal, in no small part due to a positive shift in environmental factors. As a Ray, he'll have the luxury of pitching in front of an above average defense and to a pair of exceptional defensive catchers in Ryan Hanigan and Jose Molina. These things will help an already talented pitcher hold great mixed league value in 2015.

Kennys Vargas -- Vargas hit his seventh home run of the season on Sunday, pushing his HR/FB above 20%. Vargas has absolutely mashed since his recall a few short weeks ago, though his .304 batting average is being propped up by an unsustainable .368 BABIP. His 25% strikeout rate means he's bound to regress, and this is the kind of profile that scouts had said he'd wind up with. His raw power is a legitimate plus tool, but there are questions about how his hit tool will play once major league pitchers get a real look at him. He's a worthwhile keeper in deep mixed leagues with lots of keeper slots or in AL-only leagues as long as you know what you're getting and the associated risk.

Danny Duffy -- After leaving his start on Saturday after just one pitch, the Royals said on Sunday that Danny Duffy is likely just dealing with biceps tendonitis. The initial reports indicated it could be a shoulder issue, but that no longer appears to be the case. That would be great news for his owners and great news for his 2015 fantasy value. If that is the case, he may miss a couple starts of the remainder of this season, but he'd be good to go by 2015. Duffy has good stuff and is a perennially fantasy sleeper, but as a flyball pitcher, he'll never hold mixed league value unless he make big strides with his control--and not the kind he's attempted to display this year that comes at the expense of strikeouts.

Send you fantasy questions my way on Twitter (@DerekCarty).

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