Stephen Strasburg (SP-Wash)
This has been a very confounding season for Stephen Strasburg. When I looked athim earlier in the year it looked like everything was pointing to a very strongseason. The results have been anything but. Since July 1st he has been a 4-4 pitcher with a 3.44 ERA and a very elevated 19.8% HR/FB rate. He has never had a HR/FB rate over 11% in his career so this is unusual for him. Overall he has a 3.59 ERA but his xFIP is 2.62. Everything else in his underlying peripherals would suggest that he should be doing much better. I guess it just demonstratesthat even a great pitcher like Strasburg has a smaller margin for error than wethink. It would not surprise me if he went on a fantastic run to close out the season but it won't happen unless he can correct the HR tendencies that has made him a 10-10 pitcher this year.
Jayson Heyward (OF-ATL)
With 2 more hits today and an RBI, Jayson Heyward is following a familiar pattern over the past two years as he is coming on strong during the 2nd half of theseason after a tepid 1st half. Since July 1st, Heyward is batting .307 with a .415 slugging percentage and a .361 OBP. He is batting .271 on the season with 11 HR, 53 RBI's and 14 SB's. Still his numbers are a far cry from his breakout season in 2012 when he slugged 27 HR, drove in 82, stole 21 while batting .269.Only 25, Heyward still has enormous upside but he won't reach his potential until he finds a way to be a more consistent producer over an entire season.
Yusmeiro Petit (SP-Giants)
Yusmeiro Petit has never been more than a journeyman pitcher shuttling between the Marlins, Diamondbacks, Mariners and now the Giants organization. At 30 years old something seems to have clicked for him this season. He was not bad last season but the sudden effectiveness of late has him primed to take Lincecum's spot in the Giants rotation. He does not have a big fastball but he has an extraordinarily effective slider this year. The slider has helped him increase his strikeout rate to over 10 per 9 innings and he has been very stingy with base on balls with a 1.77 per 9 inning rate. He currently has a 3.44 ERA and his xFIP would indicate that he can pitch even a bit better. He has establishedhimself as one of those late season fliers that could really help a team down the stretch.
Matt Garza (SP Brewers)
Matt Garza had a successful simulated start today and could quickly return to the Brewers rotation. While he has been an effective pitcher in the past and someone who will attract attention if he has been dropped in your league, I don't think he will be especially effective down the stretch. He is 7-7 on the year over 23 starts and his K rate is down to 6.43. He has a 3.58 ERA and whichis lower than his 3.81 career mark but he has been helped by a .255 BABIP. His velocity is on a 4 year decline and his swinging strike rate which has always been strong is now just above league average. This just does not seem like a recipe for a strong finish.
Ervin Santana (SP-Atl)
Ervin Santana was a bit wild today walking 4 in 6 innings but he only gave up 1run and struck out 7. Santana seems to have regained his form after a great start to the season and a mid-season swoon. He is 7-2 with a 2.97 ERA since thebeginning of July. He is having his best season since his 17-10 record with theAngels in 2010. Santana has certainly enjoyed the move to the NL as his K rate is at an all-time high. He has also been able to curb his HR tendencies pitching in a good park for pitchers. His 3.36 xFIP underscores that his 3.53 ERA is sustainable and at 31 he is pitching the best ball of his career.
@stevietheshu
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