Dustin Ackley- SEA- Stats- Ackley credits his second half surge to a change in mechanics. It may not be quite correct. He had exactly the same Batting EYE in each half (.40.) His FB% was also precisely the same (34.1%. ) His averages and home run frequencies, though, are very different. He hit .225 in the first half and .313 so far in the second half. Ackley slugged 4 homers in 298 PAs in the first half and has 5 in 158 second half PAs. The average is likely a result of change in luck. His BABIP was .265 in the first half and is .336 in the second. Ackley's HR/FB ratio has surged from 5.3% to 11.6%. These have brought his season numbers to .290 BABIP and 7.6% HR/FB ratio. A simpler explanation for Ackley's hot streak is regression to the mean. With 9 homers and 8 steals he has a shot at hitting double digits in each category, even if regression is played out. Ackley is developing streaky tendencies so that needs to be factored into evaluating him for 2015.
Jimmy Paredes- BAL- FYI- Paredes hit .305 with AAA Omaha before the Orioles acquired him last month and sent him to AAA Norfolk. He was hitting .258 there before getting recalled yesterday. There was a swing in luck for Paredes somewhere on the highway between Nebraska and Virginia. His BABIP with Omaha was .414 but dropped to .310 with Norfolk. Overall, Paredes has 21 steals and 8 homers at the AAA level so he has shown power and speed in the minors. His problem has been translating it to the major league level. As a pinch hitter/runner in the last month he might get a chance to get some steals but probably won't have enough playing time to have a chance to prove he's more than a AAAA player.
Jason Castro- HOU- Hot- Castro had been experiencing some bad luck recently. He had gone hitless in his 6 games before last night and his BABIP had dropped from .310 (he has a career mark of .309) to .296. He broke out of that slump in a big way, going 2-for-3 with a grand slam and a walk. His BABIP now sits at .298 so there is possibly some room for positive regression.
J. P. Arencibia- TEX- Cold- Arencibia's luck has not gotten much better since he was recalled last month. He had a .212 BABIP since coming back to the Rangers, heading into last night's 0-for-4. At least he didn't strike out. His 29.1% K rate since coming back compounded the issue with his average, which was .196 over that span. He does have 7 homers in 121 PAs since his return, which provides value. However, he hasn't hit one out since August 8th. Next year, Arencibia might have to go back to catching to try and secure a job. Between DH and 1B he would be battling the return of Prince Fielder and possibly a challenge from prospect Joey Gallo.
Josh Outman- CLE- Trade- Outman was dealt to the Yankees and could be used as a primary reliever against lefthanders. He has a .180 OBA in 14.1 IP against southpaws for the Indians but walked 8 of them so his opponents' OBP is .293. Against righthanded hitters, in 10.1 IP he has a .296 OBA and also walked 8 batters to yield an OBP of .404. Outman has exhibited similar extreme splits in his career. In other words, by "primary reliever against lefthanders" you can take that to mean LOOGY.
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