Odrisamer Despaigne (SP-SD). Despaigne flirted with history on Sunday afternoon, as he took a no-hitter into the 8th inning against the Mets. Unfortunately he gave up two hits and a run in that inning, thereby losing both the no-hitter and the chance at a win. Despaigne walked 3 and struck out 5 on the day, while lowering his ERA to 1.31. However, Despaigne's FIP is 3.6 and his xFIP is 4.14, indicating that regression will not be kind when it hits. The biggest issue is Despaigne's strikeout rates. Unless he can increase his 6.0% swinging strike rate and 11.9% K rate (which he may be able to do, given that his current rates may be affected by the small sample size effect and he has demonstrated the ability to post higher K rates in his brief stint in the minors (24.0% K rate in 5 AAA starts)), Despaigne is not going to be able to keep up his current level of performance. If you can convince another owner that Despaigne's performance to this point is not a fluke and can get a reasonable return for him, I would recommend selling high, especially after the near no-hitter today.
Jake Arrieta (SP-CHN). Arrieta was a tough luck loser in Arizona on Sunday, as he threw a solid 6.2 innings, giving up 3 ER on 4 hits while striking out 3. Arrieta's ERA on the season now sits at 2.12. Arrieta is not going to maintain his current level of performance, but that does not mean he will not be a valuable fantasy starter going forward. Arrieta is benefiting from a .275 BABIP, an 80.1% strand rate and a 3.6% HR/FB rate. However, even when those stats normalize, Arrieta is still likely to post a below 3 ERA, as evidenced by his 2.72 xFIP. When this is coupled with the very real gains Arrieta has made in his strikeout ability (his 27.5% K rate and 9.5% swinging strike rate are career highs), he should provide solid value for the remainder of the season. I do not recommend trying to sell Arrieta high, as it is unlikely that he will bring a better return than his anticipated value for the rest of the year.
Josh Collmenter (SP-ARI). Collmenter has been surprisingly solid this year for a putrid Diamondbacks team, as he picked up his 8th win on Sunday, giving up only 1 ER over 7 innings against the Cubs. Collmenter allowed only 5 baserunners (4 hits and 1 walk) while striking out 4 and he lowered his ERA to 3.64. If you are a Collmenter owner, I would try to take this opportunity to sell somewhat high, as this is probably as good as it gets for him. Collmenter is benefiting from a 7.4% HR/FB rate on top of a FB rate that is 3% lower than Collmenter's career rate, and if these rates normalize, his ERA is going to increase to something more along the lines of his 4.37 xFIP. Coupled with his dreadful 5.61 K/9 rate and the fact that this has become a lost season for the Diamondbacks, there is very little to recommend Collmenter as a fantasy starter.
Zack Wheeler (SP-NYN). Wheeler was solid in a no-decision against the Padres on Sunday, tossing six innings and giving up only 1 run on 8 hits and 1 walk while striking out 7. Wheeler's ERA for the season is now a somewhat disappointing 3.78. While that fact that he was so hittable against the feeble Padres offense is concerning, the one walk is encouraging, given that Wheeler has struggled with his control all season, entering the game with 3.82 BB/9 rate. Control is the issue that holding Wheeler back, as his other peripherals (54.1% GB r)ate, 22.9% K rate, 9.2% swinging strike rate and 94.6 average FB velocity) are solid. If he can build on the control improvements he showed in today's game, Wheeler should be able to reduce his ERA to somewhere in the vicinity of his 3.42 FIP, which would be more in line with the preseason expectations for his performance.
Alex Wood (SP-ATL). Wood evened his record at 7-7 by throwing six innings of one run ball against the Phillies on Sunday. Wood gave up only three hits and no walks while striking out 8 and reduced his ERA to 3.24. Wood has been very inconsistent to this point (probably in part because the Braves jerked him out of the starting rotation and sent him to the minors for a brief period), but his current performance is probably what owners can expect on a go-forward basis, as his current ERA is not far removed from his 3.46 FIP and 3.35 xFIP. Wood has made significant improvement in his command, as he has reduced his BB% by almost two points from 2013, while maintaining his elite 23.4% K rate. If Wood is available in your league, snap him up - even if he only maintains his current numbers, that will provide solid value for fantasy owners from here on out.
