Marco Estrada- MIL- Cold- Estrada couldn't pull off a third straight quality start, lasting only 5 IP and giving up 3 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks while striking out 5. He also gave up his 27th homer of the season in 107 IP. That is the main problem Estrada has had this season and what threatens his position in the rotation. His ERA is at 4.96 and his FIP is 5.71. Because of the extreme homer numbers his xFIP is only at 4.29, but he isn't showing any signs of getting better at keeping the ball in the park. Only twice in his 18 starts this season has he not given up at least one homer. The contrast between Estrada's performance and that of top prospect Jimmy Nelson at AAA on the same night is stark. With the Brewers looking to solidify their position at the top of the NL Central they are going to go with the better production before too long.
Russell Martin- PIT- Cold- Martin had been experiencing an extremely hot streak, going 9-for-22 in his 6 games before last night. His BABIP was up to .350. Martin's 0-for-3 last night could be the start of some regression to the mean that will seriously impact him. Even with the elevated BABIP his average was only at .280 and dropped to .273 last night. If ever there was a sell high candidate, Martin is it.
Tyler Clippard- WAS- Hot- Clippard has only been scored on twice in his last 35 appearances and one of those was no earned runs. It hasn't always been easy, as last night when he allowed 2 hits in his inning of work. Still, even though his ERA of 1.85 ERA reflects some luck, his 2.47 FIP isn't bad. Clippard has 51 Ks in 39 IP and his 19 holds puts him among the top 5 in the majors in that category. He doesn't have the same value as he did as the Washington closer in 2012 but if your league counts holds he certainly has some worth for that and his K ratio.
Adam Wainwright- STL- Great Player- Wainwright threw 7 shutout innings last night, allowing 7 hits and 3 walks while striking out 5. He threw 112 pitches, his 6th time throwing 110 or more this season. Given that Wainwright had 11 high-pitch games and that he is almost 33 years old that's not that worrisome. What is cause for concern is that Wainwright's K/9 is down to 7.63 (from 8.16 in 2013) and his BB/9 is up to 1.85 (from 1.30 last year.) His HR/9 is at 0.27, well below his career mark of 0.61. After being usually stingy with the long ball in the second half of the season, last year he game up 9 homers in 95 IP after allowing 6 homers in 146.2 IP in the first half. So there is a strong possibility that Wainwright will allow more homers in the second half to move his HR/9 ratio more towards his career numbers. He is still going to be a top performer, but expecting him to finish with his current 1.79 ERA could be asking too much.
Jonathan Papelbon- PHI- Hot- Papelbon picked up his 20th save of the season last night, throwing a perfect 9th inning and recording a strikeout. He has only been scored on in 3 of his 35 appearances this season and has yet to allow a homer. His performance this season is a marked improvement on 2013, when Papelbon had 29 saves and 7 blown saves. That kind of production could be very attractive as the trade deadline approaches.
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