Jeurys Familia- NYN- Caution- Familia officially has a tired arm and his use might curtail some. Hopefully this isn't connected with his appearance on July 4th. Familia had been getting into a lot of games but hadn't been worked that much. In his 10 outings before July 4th he had only exceeded 16 pitches once. However, on Independence Day he threw 45 pitches and only 24 of them were strikes. He only got 5 outs in that outing. That's a big jump in usage, and one when it appears he was struggling. Keep a close watch to see if it looks like an injury was sustained.
Bryce Harper- WAS- Cold- Harper is 4-for-32 since coming off the DL. He is probably suffering from a case of regression to the mean. Before yesterday's 0-for-4 performance his BABIP since being activated was .235. Even with that, his BABIP is still at .342. Expecting more regression to the mean isn't a good thing when his average is .246. Harper needs to recapture the plate discipline he had last year. In 2013 he had a K% of 18.9% and a Batting EYE of .67. This season his K% is up to 26.6% and his Batting EYE is down to .38. Even though Harper didn't seem to show it when he was in rehab, maybe there is still some carry over effect from his thumb injury that is dampening his power. He has only a single homer despite increasing his FB%. Harper has multiple areas to improve to get back to his production rates from last season.
Tim Hudson- SF- Cold- Hudson may have experienced some regression to the mean yesterday when he was tagged for 6 runs in 5.1 IP. The difference between his season ERA and FIP shrank from .52 to .30 runs in this one outing. With an FIP of 3.17 his fall won't be too much further. Hudson isn't striking out that many batters (5.90 K/9) and record of 7-6, his 2.87 ERA and 1.10 WHIP make up most of his fantasy value.
Nate Schierholtz- CHN- Cold- Schierholtz looked like he might be getting some overdue regression to the mean several days ago, when he went 6-for-19 in 4 games. Since then, though, he is hitless in his last 4 games, two of which were pinch hitting appearances. Schierholtz has a .204 average that is being driven by a .245 BABIP. The power he showed in 2013, when he hit 21 homers, might have been a statistical anomaly. Despite a FB% that has risen to 43.4% from 40.0% last year, his HR/FB has nose dived from 14.2% to 5.4%. That is below his career mark of 8.1% but would be right near that career norm if he hadn't suffered a complete power outage at home. Away from Wrigley Field Schierholtz has a HR/FB of 8.9%. However he is still waiting for the Confines to be Friendly as he has yet to hit a home over the ivy-covered walls, despite having an identical FB% as on the road. His average should go up with regression to the mean and his power should increase some as his chances of having such an extreme split continuing are small.
David Buchanan- PHI- Hot- Buchanan threw his second consecutive quality start and has not allowed more than 3 runs in any of his last 6 starts, all of which went at least 5 IP. Buchanan was sent to AAA after yesterday's game, but that is because of the All Star Break. He should be back when the Phillies need a 5th starter again and will get an outing in the minors in the meantime. With his recent performances, Buchanan has come from nowhere to be a possible sleeper in the second half. He had some control issues in a couple of starts but that seems to have been an aberration. As a low cost possible pickup, Buchanan could be worth a look after the Break.
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