Manny Machado (3B-BAL). Machado had a big night against the Nationals on Monday, going 5 for 6 with 2 runs, 2 RBI and his 8th HR. Machado is now slashing .261/.308/.404 on the season and is rewarding those owners who were willing to wait for his recovery from offseason knee surgery. Machado got off to a bit of a slow start after being activated from the DL, but his immense talent is starting to take hold. The 8 HR in only 249 PAs have to be a pleasant surprise for his owners, as he hit only 14 HR in 710 PAs in all of 2013. His HR/FB rate of 13.5% is certainly not outrageous, so he should be able to maintain something along the lines of his current HR pace. His average is being dragged down by a low (considering his 22% LD rate) BABIP of .289, so Machado owners should see BA improvement as well. Machado should put up very solid numbers for the rest of the season as he continues his ascent toward superstardom.
Jeremy Hellickson (SP-TB). Hellickson will be activated off of the DL to make his 2014 debut against the Royals on Tuesday. Hellickson, who is coming back from elbow (non-TJ) surgery, has struggled in 5 AAA rehab starts, putting up a 7.23 ERA, a 2.30 (and that's not a misprint) WHIP and a 3.20 K:BB ratio over 18.1 innings. These are not encouraging numbers, particularly in light of Hellickson's 5.17 ERA in 2013. In fairness, Hellickson's rehab numbers are being skewed by a .493 (again, not a typo!) BABIP and 57.3% strand rate, and his 2013 numbers were at least slightly inflated by a .307 BABIP and a 66.2% strand rate. While Hellickson is not as bad as the foregoing numbers would indicate (his true talent level probably resides somewhere around last year's 4.22 FIP), he is not a recommended add except in deeper AL only leagues because of his limited strikeout ability (17.0% career K rate), and even in those leagues I'd probably take a pass on his first start, as he will almost certainly be subject to a pitch limit.
Shane Greene (SP-NYA). Greene was called up to make the start against the Indians on Monday night (taking the place of the traded Vidal Nuno) and he picked up his first major league win, scattering 4 hits and 2 ER over 6 innings, while striking out 2. Greene has posted unspectacular, numbers in 15 games (13 starts) for AAA Scranton/Wilkes Barre this year, with a 4.61 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and a 57/26 K/BB ratio. Greene's ERA is being negatively impacted by a .360 BABIP and 65.5% strand rate, which are reflected in his 3.39 FIP, but his skill set does not provide much hope for sustained success at the major league level. Greene may have earned himself another start (he would have a strong argument for replacing Chase Whitley in the Yankees rotation), but he is not a recommended add, even in AL only leagues, as he is unlikely to duplicate tonight's success.
Chris Tillman (SP-BAL). Tilllman pitched well in a no decision against the Nationals on Monday night, giving up only 2 ER over 7 innings on 5 hits and 1 walk, while striking out 6. Tillman's ERA for the season now stands at 4.11. Notwithstanding the solid outing, Tillman remains a sell high (if possible) option for me. All of Tillman's peripherals scream regression. He is benefiting from a low .273 BABIP and his strikeout rate is a dreadful 13.9%. Tillman has also benefited from a below average 8.3% HR/FB rate. Once his batted ball results normalize, Tillman's ERA is going to rise (his current xFIP is 4.76), unless he can rediscover the swing and miss ability he showed last year (21.2% K rate in 2013).
James Shields (SP-KC). Shields bounced back nicely from a rough month of June, twirling 7 shutout innings against his former team on Monday night. Shields gave up only 3 hits and 1 walk while striking out 10 in reducing his ERA for the season to 3.71. All of Shields peripherals are consistent with his career numbers and the fact that his BABIP is still slightly inflated at .311 indicates that his owners can expect some further reduction in his ERA going forward. Shields should provide solid fantasy value for the rest of the season despite his recent hiccup.
