Alex Rios- Around 3 weeks ago, I did a piece on Rios. In that blurb, I opined that Rios' batting average (then .335) would regress about 30-40 points based on his above average BABIP (then .394). I guessed it would a slower decline than it has been. Rios is currently hitting .300 with a .357 BABIP after struggling through June with a .261/.293/.337 slash line. The regression I saw coming has hit with a vengeance. The question now becomes: what is Rios value the remainder of the season? Well, he hasn't run much over that 3 weeks as he has accumulated only 1 steal during that time so he is still on pace for the same 25 or so steals on the season. The negative on the player is that his BABIP still shows signs of being inflated versus his three year averages, which leads me to believe the negative regression in his batting average isn't over. His power also hasn't returned as his HR/FB is still a very low 3.6%. I'm still advising a sell position on Rios although the return on your investment won't be so high as had you sold back in early June. The nice part is you have probably lived through the largest part of his down swing if you can't sell him. I'd expect potentially another 10-15 points of average at most will come off his average, and he still can crack meaningful steals numbers if he starts running again.
Mike Moustakas- If you have ridden the Mike Moustakas fantasy roller coaster, I feel for you. I was on the verge of starting a support group this season when I thought I had stolen Mous for the third straight year at ridiculously low value only to be reminded that he doesn't hit pro pitching. Fast forward to June and things have gotten a bit better for Mous. His BB Rate is up at a career high of 8.3%. His K Rate is down to 15.3%, which is the lowest it has been since 2011 when he broke in with the Royals. His ISO is back and at a career high of .174 (.171 was his highest in 2012). He is still a fly ball dominate hitter as he puts 48.6% of the balls he hits into the air, and he is making more solid contact on those fly balls as he has decreased his IFFB Rate to a career low 13.1% and his HR/FB Rate is back up to 9.5%. All of these things are solid signs of a player maturing and coming into his own. His .181 BABIP is ridiculously low and will regress positively over the next several months to increase his batting average somewhere in the range of 20-30 points. Will it end up being a good year for Moustakas? It's hard to have a good year with the first 8 weeks he put together, but it has the makings of a very, very good second half, which is all fantasy owners should care about at this point. I'm putting out a buy recommendation for Moustakas on owners who may be in need of a 3rd baseman or corner infielder. I think we may see the best half of baseball yet from Mous in the next three months.
Mike Zunino- As is my duty as a University of Florida grad, here is your monthly Mike Zunino update. If you have been reading my analysis on Zunino this season, you are aware that I've been preaching him as a low average, decent power catcher that could potentially hit 20 home runs in a "couple" of years. My prediction for Zunino this season was 12-15 home runs. Well, thanks to a power surge in June, it looks like Zunino may be knocking at the door of 20 home runs right now. Zunino has improved his contact rates over the course of the season. He has a 46.4% Fly Ball Rate with a 16.9% HR/FB Rate. These are very, very solid numbers for a player whose fantasy value revolves around his power. He is still striking out fair too often (33.2%) and not walking nearly enough (4.2%). His strikeouts will continue to keep his batting average in the .220-230 range, but in deep leagues, his power has suddenly made him far more relevant than I originally predicted. He could get to 20 dingers this season, and he might even be able to pass that number if he keeps pace with what has been a very hot last two weeks. We will have to see how it moves forward, but for now, if you need catching help, you could do worse than Zunino's power.
Trevor Bauer- Trevor Bauer has provided owners with strikeouts thus far in 2014, but he has yet to reach the elite potential that many thought was possible in 2012. His 22.5% K Rate is a very nice addition to fantasy rosters, and it seems sustainable given his 94.2 MPH fastball and 9.2% Swinging Strike Rate. In addition to the predictably strong strikeout rate, Bauer has shown more control at the major league level than in the past. His 8.7% BB Rate, while not in any way elite, is a new low for Bauer in the majors and points in the right direction as far as his growth. His contact rates have really been his undoing to date. Batters are just making too much favorable contact on Bauer for him to be more than a back-end fantasy option at this point. A 25.9% Line Drive Rate and 41.8% Fly Ball Rate are both indicative of this problem. While we can expect some regression in his .329 BABIP Against, it won't help Bauer become an elite option until he can begin to get hitters to make less solid contact. All in all, it has been a solid start to 2014 for Bauer, and he finally looks like he is ready for major league competition consistently. He isn't what we thought he would be in 2012 just yet, but he is on his way. In keeper and dynasty formats, he is worth hanging onto. In re-draft leagues, his role will be a back-end pitcher who can help you win strikeouts, but he isn't on the "most own" list in re-draft leagues just yet.
Kevin Kiermaier- Kevin Kiermaier has provided an unexpected boast to the Rays lineup over the last month or so with 7 home runs and a .319 batting average. It is getting to the point that people at least have to start paying attention to Kiermaier as a potential pick-up. I would preach patience in this scenario. I'm not convinced that the current power/average combination we are seeing from Kiermaier is anywhere close to sustainable. First, he has never hit more than 5 home runs at any level in the minors even when given substantial plate appearances. This power spurt is not supported by any minor league sample. Additionally, his major league contact rates don't support him being a legitimate power hitter. Kiermaier has a 54.2% Ground Ball Rate, which is obviously high. He has a 32.5% Fly Ball Rate, which is both below average and further undermined by a 18.5% IFFB Rate. Additionally, his HR/FB Rate is an elite 25.9%. To put things simply, this is a short sample size chalk full of unsustainable power. His .354 BABIP also seems ridiculous high in comparison to his 13.3% Line Drive Rate so that batting average is coming down as well. With him only being owned in 4% of leagues, he should still be on your waiver wire. Leave him there. Ignore the short sample and let someone else be the one to take the risk and get burned when he crashes to earth.
Today's American League Player Blog was brought to you by Nicholas Rossoletti. You can follow Nicholas on Twitter @NRoss56.
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