Rick Porcello (SP-Detroit)
Rick Porcello pitched a very strong game throwing 7 innings of 1 run ball (no ER) on 5 hits while striking out 6 in a no decision. His ERA dropped to 3.24 on the year. Porcello, 25, has a 12-5 record this season. He is not a big K pitcher averaging only 5.27/9 innings but his control is strong with a 1.89 BB/9. His fastball has lost 1.2 mph since last year which is always a red flag that must be watched closely. Not surprisingly he has a below average 7.2% swinging strike rate but he has been able to entice batters to swing at his pitches outside the strike zone at a 32.5% rate. His effectiveness rides on his 2 seam fastball which has improved greatly this year and a very good change that he would be wise to throw more often. Supported by a good hitting team I think Porcello will continue to have success, but his HR tendencies and a lucky .271 BABIP suggests that a correction on the downside is very probable.
David Freese (3B-LAA)
David Freese hit his 6th HR of the season as the Angels edged the Tigers 2-1. Four of Freese's 6 HR's on the season have come this month as he has almost a .500 slugging percentage in July. He has demonstrated good patience at the plate recently with a walk rate of over 12%. If anything can stunt this resurgence at the plate it is has been his abnormally high K rate which has been near 30% all season even during this recent stretch of good hitting. It is this factor that concerns me most when speculating about whether this is a real turnaround. During his best year in 2012 when he hit 20 HR's and batted .293 he was at a 21% K rate for the entire season. Until he can get this strikeout rate under control I would suggest that you should continue to pass on picking him up.
Chris Archer ( SP-TB)
Chris Archer logged a QS today despite his 6th loss giving up 3 runs on 6 hits in 6 innings of work. Archer has a fine 3.37 ERA, which is more or less supported by his peripherals, but with a 3.84 xFIP some regression is likely. Archer has a 94 mph fastball and an improving slider that he throws almost a third of the time. His arsenal has produced a 9% swinging strike rate although hitters are starting to adjust to him and they are not swinging as much at his pitches outside the strike zone. At 25 years old he has a good future ahead especially if he can develop an effective 3rd pitch.
Carlos Santana (1B Cleve)
Carlos Santana continues to mash the ball this month hitting two HR's and driving in 4 against KC. Santana has enjoyed a great July hitting .289 with 8 HR and 17 RBI's. His BA sits at .232 but he has been hurt by a very unlucky .250 BABIP which is about 30 points below his career average. Santana has matched his HR total of 20 last year in 230 less AB's. If he continues his 2nd half surge he will likely have his finest offensive season and completely recover from his poor start in April where he hit only 3 HR's batted only .151. The arrow is definitely pointing up for Santana.
JA Happ (SP- Toronto)
JA Happ pitched 5.1 innings of 3 run ball giving up 2 HR's out of the 4 hits that he allowed in a no decision effort against the Yankees today. Since his personal breakout year with the Phillies in 2009 when he was 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA he has not been a very effective pitcher. So it is a bit surprising that his record sits at 8-5 with the Blue Jays this year despite not missing very many bats. His 6.7% swinging strike rate is a career low. The anomaly is that his velocity is at a career best 92.7 which is significantly above his 90.4 career mark. The issue seems to be that while his fastball has extra hop the effectiveness of his curveball and change have gone in the opposite direction. Happ has a potent offense behind him so it would not surprise to see some good win numbers out of him the rest of the year, but his peripherals point to him being no more than an average MLB pitcher and at best a back end of the rotation starter in deeper mixed leagues.
@stevietheshu
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