Mike Minor- I wanted to touch upon Mike Minor after Wednesday's start and further some commentary that our own David Regan had on him over the weekend. As David pointed out, Minor has offered fair value to fantasy owners despite his lack of traditionally elite fastball velocity. On Wednesday, Minor flashed the reason he offers fantasy owners this solid value: a reasonable strikeout rate. The 10 strikeout, 3 walk and 1 earned run performance against the Mariners may be one of his better starts this season, but his current 21.7% K Rate is supported by his larger major league sample size. In addition, to support David's point, Minor really does a very solid job of limiting walks. His 6.5% BB Rate is also substantiated by his larger sample size. Minor isn't without his flaws. He is currently stranding 85.1% of base runners, which is not sustainable based on his past performance. As that number begins to regress towards his career mean, he will give up more runs and his ERA will increase. Additionally, he tends to be a bit fly ball prone, and his current 14.0% HR/FB rate would be the worst in his career. The hope is that the HR/FB Rate will decrease prior to the regression in his Strand Rate, otherwise, we may start seeing some multi-run homers fly out of the park. Minor's ERA seems to be in line for a regression over the next several months, but he should be a solid source of strikeouts without blowing up your WHIP too much. He is a solid 4/5 starter in most mixed leagues and should maintain that value for the remainder of 2014.
Anthony Rendon- Baseball is, and always has been, a game of streaks. Anthony Rendon was on fire in April. He slashed .316/.352/.544 and flashed elite skills with multi-position eligibility. He then proceeded to stink it up for the month of May. As we turn into June, it appears the Nationals third baseman is on the verge of another hot streak. Rendon has hit two home runs in the last week and appears to be finding his swing again. Part of the deal with younger ball players is you will ride the ups and downs as they make adjustments to big league pitching. Rendon is flashing skills that should excite most fantasy owners. He has become a fly ball dominate hitter with a 42.4% Fly Ball Rate. This will help sustain his .181 ISO over the course of the season although his 9.0% HR/FB will limit his upside as a power hitter this season. His .262 average is probably close to what can be expected from Rendon over the course of the season. I'm not sure he is ready to be the player that we saw in April, but he is flashing very nice promise for a player with dual eligibility. Owners in dynasty formats should be even more excited. As the 24 year old ages, it is likely he can increase that HR/FB enough to creep into the 20-25 home run club although 15-17 homers seems like the likely total for 2014. Overall, he makes for a very solid player this season with strong potential for coming seasons.
Jean Segura- The life of a Jean Segura owner can be a wildly confusing time. Segura is not quite the player we thought he was after the 2013 breakout. It seems wildly unlikely that Segura will come close to the 44 stolen bases he accumulated last season especially since he has already been caught 6 times this year. With that being said, sometimes the "hate" on a player can create a gap in perceived value and actual value. I feel like that may be happening a bit with Segura. He has become the poster boy for inefficient stolen base threats, but it really shouldn't matter to fantasy owners. Most standard fantasy scoring systems have yet to take a caught stealing into account in any way. As such, Segura is still a shortstop who will almost assuredly steal upwards of 30-35 bases on the season. His current .272 average is probably pretty close to Segura's true value in that category. Along with a reasonable value in batting average and above average value in stolen bases, Segura has reclaimed his role a top the Brewers' lineup. Given his premium lineup positioning, he should also be a very nice source of runs as we move through the 2014 season. A ground ball dominate hitter, Segura will never generate any real power, but Segura will provide top 5 or so value for a shortstop in batting average, stolen bases and runs as we move through the season. It's probably passed the point where you can buy low on Segura, but if you can find an owner still frustrated with him, he is worth acquiring to fill-in for owner's in desperate need of a shortstop or middle infielder.
Devin Mesoraco- I love what Devin Mesoraco has provided to fantasy teams this season. With that being said, I'm going to go ahead and advise owners that selling high on Mesoraco now may make sense. His numbers really can go nowhere but down given his current indicators. Two statistics that really jump out at me as indicating that Mesoraco is in line for regression are his HR/FB Rate and his BABIP. He currently has a 27.3% HR/FB Rate. To put this in perspective, this rate would be good for second best in the major leagues in 2013 behind only Chris Davis and ahead of Pedro Alvarez, Miguel Cabrera, Adam Dunn, Paul Goldschmidt and Giancarlo Stanton. His traditional HR/FB Rate is around 10%. While it is clear that the soon to be 26 year old has changed his profile as a hitter by becoming a fly ball dominate hitter (41.8% Fly Ball Rate in 2014 to 33.8% in 2013), it just isn't realistic that Mesoraco will continue to blast home runs at this rate for the remainder of the season. On top of an expected drop off in home run production, it seems very likely that Mesoraco's average will regress as well. His average is being inflated by a .371 BABIP. This is in excess of 100 points higher than his career numbers. While we may see a new career high for Mesoraco in both average and BABIP, it is unlikely that he will be able to carry with his .347 average throughout the season. It is far more likely that the Reds' catcher will see a reduction in that average, which could be in excess of 50-60 points from his current number. We are still in line to see the best season of his career from Mesoraco, and he is a player to probably hold in keeper and dynasty formats based on his age. In re-draft leagues, it is probably time to start shopping him to see if you can get a catcher desperate owner to overpay based on his first two months.
Michael Wacha- Analysts have bent over backwards complimenting the Cardinals on their player development system over the past 5 to 7 years. Michael Wacha is yet another reason to tip your cap to the best run system in baseball. It is rare that teams can promote readymade aces in baseball, but Wacha has been exactly that. His K Rate is an elite 25.2% and is supported by his larger professional sample. His walk rate is a terrific 6.4%. His contact rates shade slightly towards a ground ball pitcher. Everything about Wacha has been elite during his major league career to date. Owners in all leagues should be glad for the price they paid for Wacha on draft day. He is providing owners with solid surplus value based on his draft day cost based on his current performance.
Today's NL Player Blog is brought to you by Nicholas Rossoletti. You can follow Nicholas on Twitter @NRoss56
This is just a small sample our our daily analysis, join our member area for more premium content: http://www.fantistics.com/join/join.php3
