Eddie Butler (SP-COL). Butler, one of the Rockies top SP prospects, had a tough assignment for his major league debut on Friday night, facing the explosive Dodger offense in Coors Field. The results were predictable, as Butler was roughed up, allowing 6 ER on 10 hits and 3 walks with only 2 Ks over 5.1 innings. Butler had posted impressive numbers in AA to earn the callup, with a 2.39 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 3.33 FIP in 11 starts. However, he was only striking out batters at a 14.1% rate, and that lack of dominance carried over to the majors, at least for his first game, as evidenced by his miniscule 4.6% swinging strike rate. He did strike batters out at a % rate in his 2013 season, split between high-A and AA, so the potential for a higher K-rate is there, but Butler probably needs more seasoning in the minors to realize it. The Rockies lack viable rotation alternatives at the moment (and in fact may need to call Butler's rotation mate, Jon Gray, up as well), so Butler will probably get at least a few more starts, but the lack of strikeouts limits his relevance to NL-only leagues (and, even there, probably only to his road starts in favorable pitchers' parks).
Joey Votto (1B-CIN). Votto, on the DL with a quad strain, will start a rehab assignment on Sunday and, barring any setbacks, is expected to be activated sometime this week. Votto has been a disappointment for his owners to this point, as he posted a .257/.410/.449 slash line with only 12 RBI prior to going on the DL. Votto's BA should improve, as his .290 BABIP is almost 70 points below his career average, and his power numbers should remain strong, as his ISO and HR/FB rate are consistent with his career numbers. Of more concern is his 19.1% BB rate, which is 4 points higher than his career rate. While ordinarily a high BB rate is a good thing, as an indicator of good plate discipline, in this case, the increase in BB rate is probably an indicator of teams pitching around Votto more frequently, as a result of the Reds' lineup being generally weaker this year. Votto owners should be prepared to activate him, but should also temper there expectations on a go-forward basis, as the increased BB rate indicates that Votto is likely to continue to be a disappointment in the HR and RBI categories.
Shelby Miller (SP-STL). Miller turned in an extremely impressive outing on Saturday afternoon, spinning a complete game shutout against the potent Blue Jays lineup. Miller gave up only three hits and one walk while striking out 5. The strong outing reduced Miller's ERA for the season to 3.59. Despite his dominant outing against a strong offense, Miller remains a sell high candidate. Even after the shutout, Miller's peripherals indicate that his ERA is due for regression. Miller is benefiting from some good fortune, as his BABIP is .271 and his strand rate is 79.1%. This good fortune is evidenced by his FIP of 4.77 and his xFIP of 4.64. Miller's command of the strike zone has regressed in 2014, with a 16.2% K rate and an 11.2% BB rate. He is also not fooling batters as well this year, given his pedestrian 6.8% swinging strike rate. Added all together, the numbers indicate that there is no way Miller will be able to maintain his current ERA. Miller owners would be well-advised to take advantage of Saturday's outing to obtain the highest possible return for him.
Todd Frazier (3B-CIN). Frazier went 3 for 4 with 2 runs, his 13th HR and his 5th SB in the Reds' win over the Phillies on Saturday afternoon. Frazier was one of our favorite sleepers coming into 2014, and his performance to this point has validated that status. Frazier is now slashing .279/.348/.521 for the year. Frazier's BABIP is a not-outlandish .303, particularly given the fact that he has improved his LD rate from 18.1% in 2013 to 22.6% this year. Frazier has also exhibited improved plate discipline, as he has reduced is swing rate on pitches outside the strike zone from 35% to 32%. These improvements indicate that Frazier should be able to maintain much of the improvement over his .233 BA from last year. He is not likely to maintain his current HR pace, as it is being supported by a likely unsustainable 18.8% HR/FB rate, but he should be able to approach 25 HR and 12 SBs, while maintaining at least a .260 BA, which is fabulous production considering his likely draft position/auction price.
Ken Giles (RP-PHI). The Phillies called Giles up from AAA on Saturday to replace Mike Adams in their bullpen. Giles put up impressive numbers in the minors, registering a 1.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and a 38:13 K:BB ratio over 28.2 IP, split between AA and AAA. NL-only owners looking for save sleepers who have the roster space may want to consider stashing Giles as he was closing in the minors (12 saves) and could be a possibility to take over as the closer in the event of a Jonathan Papelbon trade. At the very least, he could provide benefit in the K and ratio categories if he can maintain his minor league dominance.
