To say Jake Arrieta is rolling is an understatement. The 28-year old was solid, yet unspectacular throughout his minor league career, and ineffective at the highest level heading into 2014. Arrieta's season was delayed due to shoulder stiffness, but since his debut Saturday, May 3, few have been better. All he did Monday was flirt with a no-hitter.
Arrieta has improved his command. He is keeping the ball down, evidenced by his 51 percent ground ball rate. Arrieta has always had an excellent changeup, but this season, his fastball and cutter have become plus pitches. The ability to locate three plus pitches makes any pitcher a difficult matchup. Need more proof? Arrieta has allowed six free passes in June, and three were in one game.
Arrieta gave up four earned runs Friday, May 27, and followed that outing with just four earned runs allowed over six June starts. The strikeouts are impressive, currently sporting a 10.11 K/9 rate, and his 2.05 ERA and 1.11 WHIP are exceptional marks. Until proven otherwise, continue to start Arrieta with confidence. Has anyone been better?
Jason Heyward looks locked into the middle of the lineup, at least for the time being. Manager Fredi Gonzalez said he is committed to B.J. Upton in the leadoff spot, which opens up plenty of RBI opportunities for Heyward. The talent has never been questioned, but the 24-year old needs a big second half to reward fantasy owners.
Heyward has struggled hitting fifth this season, but the sample size is still too small for any conclusions to be drawn. Currently, his LD% is sitting at 16.7 percent, which should rise. Additionally, his 8.1 percent HR/FB mark is well below his career clip of 14.1 percent. Further highlighting Heyward's potential for improvement are his .129 ISO and .322 wOBA, which are again, both well below his career marks.
Fantasy owners may be growing impatient with Heyward, and buying low on a significantly better second half is advised. He is striking out just 16.4 percent of the time and his contract percentages are well above his career marks. Given his upside, there is reason to believe his statistics are on the unlucky side. Expect improvements.
Hahn, Jesse Hahn, continued his special agent ascend into fake-baseball relevancy Monday night. Hahn has now allowed just two earned runs in his last four outings, and his nine strikeouts were a career high. After Monday's start, he has an impressive 1.95 ERA, 11.71 K/9 and a 48.6 percent ground ball rate.
Hahn had a modest debut Thursday, June 3, but since, has put together four straight excellent starts, while flashing big-strikeout potential. Hahn was a sixth-round selection of the Tampa Bay Rays in 2010, and the 24-year old has just 45 starts outside the major leagues. He is a relative unknown and has arrived for the Padres seemingly out of nowhere, but needs to considered in nearly all fantasy formats at this stage.
Hahn has been overlooked since an injury in college. It is time to seriously evaluate whether he is a worthy addition to your team. Strikeouts aren't easy to find for free in July. If you're searching for pitching answers, take a flier on Hahn, Jesse Hahn.
Matt Kemp has put together a solid month of June. Formerly a fantasy MVP, Kemp has struggled with injuries, inconsistency and hasn't played a full season since 2011. Kemp has already played more games this season than he did last year. The power-speed combo is lacking, but signs of improvement are encouraging, nonetheless.
Entering Monday's game, Kemp had a .206 ISO and .393 wOBA for the month. Both marks are 100 points higher than his May totals, and Kemp's strikeout percentage has dropped each month. The home run power isn't quite there, but Kemp's 12 extra-base hits, 14 runs and 16 RBIs in June are steps in the right direction. Things are looking up.
Projecting ahead, bank on Kemp's slash line to land between his .320/.380/.526 June line, and his current season mark of .275/.333/.458. A few more of his extra-base hits should start registering in the round tripper column, but his days of being a reliable source of stolen bases are long gone. Consider any swipe a bonus. Barring injury, Kemp is set to produce a solid year-end stat line.
It was inevitable Justin Morneau's April pace would prove unsustainable, but his recent hot stretch could be. Moreanu is currently second in the National League in RBIs, resembling his former-MVP self. He is on pace for 25 home runs, 113 RBIs and his current slash line is .308/.343/.519.
As should be expected, Morneau is raking at Coors Field. In 146 at bats, he has eight home runs, 37 RBIs and is slashing .329/.361/.548. The best part is statistically there are no screaming outliers. Morneau's line drive percentage is down from last season, and his ground ball rate is up. His .307 BABIP matches his batting average entering Monday's game.
Make no mistake, Coors Field inflates statistics, but Morneau is making the most of the opportunity. The only questions with Morneau are whether or not to field trade offers, or target him in a deal. Test the waters, just beware he has had neck stiffness twice this season. Although, the way he is mashing everything appears a-okay.
