Matt Holliday, (OF-St Louis)
After today's one for 4 performance, Matt Holliday's subpar season continues. In 270 plate appearances this year, Holliday has only 3 HR and is batting only .269. Holliday's 1.54 GB/FB rate points to one of the problems in that Holliday is producing ground balls at a 50.5% rate which is a career worst performance. However his FB% is still not appreciably under his career averages. The most troubling statistic is his 4.9% HR/FB ratio which is an unprecedented number for him. He has not been lower than 13.5% in the last five years. His contact rates are in line with career numbers so what accounts for the power outage? He still possesses excellent batted ball speed of 104.8 mph which closely mirrors his 104.7 mark on 22 HR's last year. If you look at the spray chart for his HR's in 2012 and 2013 more than 50% were the results of pulling the ball to left while all 3 HR's this year were to dead center. Maybe Holliday needs to pull the more or perhaps he has some undisclosed injury, but whatever it is owners need to watch his performance closely. This could be the beginning of the decline of one of the most consistent players in baseball.
Kyle Lohse (SP-Brewers)
After throwing his first shutout of the year against the Cubs on 6/1, Lohse came back to earth at the hands of the Pirates who battered him for 8 runs and 9 hits over just 5 innings pitched to drop his record to 7-2 on the year. This poor outing catapulted his ERA up to 3.27 which is more in line with his xFIP of 3.67. Lohse seems to be one of those pitchers that consistently get better results than his underlying peripherals would suggest. Never a big strikeout pitcher, Lohse has a career best 7.05 K/9 innings rate this year. Not unexpectedly, his swinging strike rate sits at 8.7% which also is a career mark. He has been able to spot his average fastball very well this year although he is predominantly an off speed pitcher with sinker, slider and curveball thrown almost 80% of the time. His slider has been particularly effective in 2014. I would not bet against Lohse surprising us all once again and producing another fine season. Lohse's BABIP results at .263 suggest that some negative regression will occur over the course of the year, but remember he somehow cobbled together a 16-3 season with St Louis in 2012 and his peripherals were not nearly as solid as they are this year.
Jason Heyward (OF-Atlanta)
Jason Heyward seemed to revive his value with a great stretch of hitting over the final few months of last year. His owners were hoping that a fast start would be in store for the very talented 24 year old. Unfortunately April was a bad month for Heyward as he batted just .202 and had a dismal slugging percentage of .313. He started to pull out his bad start at the end of April and May produced much better results. Currently, his triple slash line sits at .254/.339/.366. As a leadoff hitter, he has excelled in one area which is SB with 9 on the year after only 2 all of last season. The question on the mind of all his owners is whether he will start to hit for more power. His current ISO of .112 is well below his career .188 mark. On the positive side his FB% is up to almost 41% which would be a career high. His contact rate on pitches in the zone is almost 90% and his overall contact rate has climbed as well to career high numbers. While his average batted ball speed is down a bit from an excellent 104.8 mph last year to a 103.7 mph this year, his overall distance is the same. With 6 HR's on the year, after the one he hit in today's game, I think we'll see him pick up his pace and settle near 20 by year end which will make him a very desirable 20/20 OF contributor.
Nate Eovaldi (SP-Miami)
Nate Eovaldi followed up an excellent outing on 6/1 against the Braves with another strong effort pitching 7.2 innings of 3 run ball giving up 6 hits, walking one, and striking out 8. His current 3.27 ERA is supported by a 3.47 xFIP and he has raised his strikeout rate to almost 8 per 9 innings. His velocity on his 4 seam fastball sits at 95.6 which put him in the elite category among MLB pitchers. There are a lot of favorable indicators that Eovaldi will maintain this level of performance. His GB% has risen to almost 50% which is a 6% jump for 2013, his walk rate has declined from 3.39/9 innings last year to 1.68 this year, and his K/9 of 8 is up from 6.60 last year. Once he starts to command his other pitches better I could see his Swinging Strike Rate, which is barely league average, start to increase as well. He is spotting his fastball better and his change is showing improvement this year. The arrow is pointing up for Eovaldi this year and at 24 he is a very promising young pitcher.
Tyson Ross, SP (San Diego)
Tyson Ross was saw his record drop to 6-5 after a uncharacteristically poor performance today which saw him give up 6 runs (5 ER) on 5 hits and 3 walks with 7 K's in 5.1 innings. His ERA rose to 3.22 on the year. At 27 years old, the tall 6'6 righty has been very good again for the Padres this year. He is pitching to a 3.27 xFIP which demonstrates that the strides he made last year have continued and should be sustained all year. His velocity is down this year, but it is consistent with the numbers he had for most of his career, until the unexpected surge he experienced in 2013. His 12.6% swinging strike rate is exceptional and builds on the success in missing bats that he demonstrated last year. He is producing ground balls at almost a 60% rate which is more than offsets an increase in HR/FB% which has spiked to 12.2%. We would like to see his walk rate come down from the 3.56 walks/9 innings pitched, and if he can make this adjustment, we could be seeing the development of an elite pitcher.
@stevietheshu
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