Ian Kennedy (SP-San Diego)
There was some real optimism that Ian Kennedy would have a much better year in 2014 as he moved to a much more comfortable ballpark in San Diego. For a pitcher who has had trouble with the HR ball in his career, this was a soft landing for Kennedy. Despite an off performance in today's game where he gave up 5 ER on 7 hits in 7 innings on the road, and was undone by a grand slam by Marlon Byrd, I think there is reason to like Kennedy's prospects. He is striking out over a batter an inning and his 3.04 XFIP is still below his 3.63 ERA. He has always been able to miss bats and his 10% Swinging Strike rate is among the best of his career. His HR/FB rate of 9.4% is down significantly from last year's career worst 13.2%. Kennedy's walk rate sits at a career low and he is inducing GB's at a career best 41.8% mark. The five wins are more of a function of the poor offense that supports him, but I would expect his K's, ERA, and WHIP to be at or near career best marks this season. If you could wrest him from some frustrated owner I would jump at the opportunity to do so just as long as you don't expect much in the wins category.
Evereth Cabrera (SS-San Diego)
Evereth Cabrera was 0-3 in today's game which dropped his BA to .230. It seems that the entire improvement in plate discipline and contact rate that Cabrera achieved in 95 games last year have all but evaporated. His walk rate is down 5% from 2013 and his K rate has climbed by 7%. Cabrera's contact rate which had risen to a very nice 86.3% has now dropped back down below his career average and sits at less than 80%. Cabrera is one of those extreme GB hitters with a career average of 61.3% but his current 66% is not the asset it could be for a speed guy if your plate discipline is so bad. To add insult to injury, Cabrera is also stealing less which could be attributed to his poor 4.1% walk rate and his awful .264 OBP which is down almost 100 points from last year. There is no apparent indication of an immediate turnaround so Cabrera is not likely to provide the value his owners were expecting.
Anthony Rizzo (1B-Cubs)
Anthony Rizzo was one of my prime picks for a major rebound this year and he has not disappointed. After a 3 for 4 batting performance today where he hit his 13th HR, scored his 42nd run, and drove in his 36th RBI we are seeing the promise that he exhibited in his 2012 season when he clubbed 15 HR in 87 games played for the Cubs. In addition to batting .284 so far this year, Rizzo has raised his OBP to over .400 and he is walking at a very promising 16% rate up from 11% last year. His LD% is 23.5 which is a good indicator that he could maintain his improved BA from a woeful .233 last year. His contact rate is at about league average and he is enjoying a more reasonable .305 BABIP up from last year's very unlucky .258 number. It would not be a stretch to see Rizzo hit the 30 HR and 100 RBI mark this year if he can approach the 690 plate appearances he produced in 2013.
Trevor Rosenthal (Closer-St Louis)
Trevor Rosenthal notched his 17th save of the season pitching 1.1 innings to preserve the win for Adam Wainwright. Armed with an elite 13.4% Swinging Strike Rate, Rosenthal has averaged almost 12 K's/9 innings pitched while maintaining a 3.7% HR/FB rate. He has an elevated 3.82 ERA that is not far off of his xFIP of 3.56 which indicates that his other underlying peripherals are not as strong as you would like to see. You need to go no further than his 12.6% walk rate to see where the issue lies. Despite a velocity of over 96 mph, he has not spotted his fastball very well at times and were it not for his outstanding change he would not be nearly as effective as he has been this year. As a result of his control problems, hitters are laying off his pitches outside the zone, and to further complicate matters, his first strike percentage his dipped by almost 8% when compared to last year. Rosenthal has great stuff so he will be able to withstand some wild streaks during the course of the year, but he is not mature enough as a closer to be able to ride this inconsistency without some repercussions. Owners should expect some more blown saves until he can start to reduce his tendency to give up walks at a high rate.
Aaron Hill (2B, Arizona)
Aaron Hill smacked a double in 4 AB's to drive in 2 runs in today's game. One of the better slugging 2nd baseman in baseball has had an off year in the HR department with only 5 on the year. This is a far cry from his 36 HR performance in 2009 and his most recent 26 HR output in 2012. His .137 ISO is only slightly better than the .110 number he produced in 2011 when he only hit 8 HR in 571 AB's. The question all owners will certainly have is, which Hill do I have this year? I'm afraid it might be the bad one. While he is hitting fly balls at a good clip, and his contract rate is fine, he has seen his K% jump to a career high 18.7%. Hill does not have great bat speed or distance on fly balls so if he is prone to significant variation in his home run hitting success. Unfortunately for his owners, this looks like one of those years where he will not produce the power that makes him a valuable fantasy second basemen.
@stevietheshu
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