Justin Masterson (SP-CLE). The bad Masterson showed up in Fenway on Friday night, as he lasted only 2 innings while giving up 5 ER on 3 hits and, most disturbingly, 4 walks while not registering a single strikeout. It appeared that Masterson had gotten his control problems under control, as he had walked only 2 in his previous outing, but he was back to his wild ways on Friday. Masterson's ERA rose above 5.00 after this outing and the biggest difference between his performance this year and last is the lack of control. Masterson's 11.0% BB rate is not only ugly, it is also 1.5 points higher than his 2013 rate. Right now, Masterson is simply too inconsistent to use in mixed leagues (he pitched seven shutout innings against this same Red Sox team two outings ago) and he should probably be, at a minimum, benched until he shows some evidence that he can regain the command of the strike zone he possessed last year.
Drew Smyly (SP-DET). Smyly was the tough luck loser on Friday night, as he gave up only 1 ER over 6 innings, but his teammates could not manage to push even one run across against the Twins. Smyly's ERA now sits at 3.58 for the year. While Smyly was a popular sleeper candidate coming into the season, his performance has not quite lived up to the hype. His 81.6% strand rate and .281 BABIP show that he is unlikely to maintain his current ERA. This, plus the fact that his status as the Tigers' fifth starter means that he is frequently skipped or pushed back in the rotation, limit Smyly's utility to that of a spot or streaming option in mixed leagues.
Collin McHugh (SP-HOU). McHugh's gradual return from the stratosphere continued on Friday night, as he lasted only 5 innings against the previously helpless Rays' offense, giving up 4 runs (3 earned) on 5 hits and 3 walks. He did strike out 6, so the evening wasn't a total loss for McHugh owners. The window for selling high on McHugh is starting to close, as Friday's outing sent his ERA above 3.00 for the first time this year and his 3.37 xFIP and .257 BABIP indicate that there will be further regression in McHugh's performance and, despite their recent surge, the general weakness of the Astros offense will limit McHugh's win opportunities.
Drew Hutchison (SP-TOR). Hutchison was outstanding in picking up his 5th win against the Orioles on Friday night. Hutchison twirled 7 shutout innings, giving up only 6 hits, and no walks, while striking out 3. While I am not quite as big a Hutchison fan as my colleague Nick, Hutchison does have his uses if correctly deployed. The biggest consideration in using Hutchison is that he should NOT be used when pitching at home. He has one of the largest home/road ERA disparities that I can remember, as he has pitched to an 8.72 ERA at home and a 2.03 ERA on the road. This disparity can in large part be explained by the fact that Hutchison is an extreme fly ball pitcher as evidenced by his 43.6% FB rate. Hutchison's strikeout ability (21.4% K rate) makes him well worth rostering in most fantasty leagues, just be careful when and where you start him. Hutchison's next two starts are both scheduled to be against the Yankees (one in NY and one in Toronto). Tonight's result notwithstanding, I would advise keeping him benched for both of those, as the potential reward is not worth the risk of one or two disaster starts.
Kyle Gibson (SP-MIN). Gibson picked up his 6th win of the year against the Tigers Friday night by spinning 7 shutout innings against a normally potent offense. Gibson gave up only 5 hits and 2 walks while striking out 3. Gibson's ERA for the season now stands at 3.55. While I was initially skeptical of Gibson's ability to maintain this level of performance, his peripherals indicate that he may well be able to maintain something approaching his current performance. Although his .266 BABIP indicates a certain amount of good fortune, his 73.0% strand rate is roughly league average and his FIP of 3.75 indicates that any regression should be fairly mild. One potential area of concern is Gibson's 5.5% HR/FB rate, which may not be sustainable. Should that rate normalize to league average, the ERA regression would be more substantial, as evidenced by Gibson's 4.32 xFIP. Bottom line, Gibson's limited strikeout ability (only 4.50 K/9) and the potential for significant regression in his ERA, limit his utility to AL only leagues. The lack of Ks renders him virtually valueless in mixed leagues, even as a streamer.
