Dexter Fowler- Last month I wrote up Dexter Fowler, and I discussed how he was trending in a strange direction during his power prime. A hot June has helped Fowler's numbers regress back towards his career mean, but he is still showing contact rates that indicate little in the way of growth during 2014. Fowler has managed to slash an impressive .333/.416/.538 during the month of June, but his poor contact trends have continued even during this hot streak. Fowler has a 47.5% Ground Ball Rate during the month and a 50% rate overall on the season to date. While this hot streak has normalized his numbers somewhat, we still aren't seeing the necessary growth from Fowler to make him more than a fourth or fifth outfielder in most mixed leagues. His ISO is on a three year downward trend, and based on his heightened Ground Ball Rate, it seems unlikely that this will bounce back strongly during the second half of the season. If you picked him up during his current hot streak, there is nothing wrong with riding it until it is over, but nothing in his profile makes me believe it will last for an extended period of time. His upside is still 10-12 home runs and 15 stolen bases, which has some value, but he just isn't showing signs of turning the corner. If you can sell him as part of a package during this hot streak, it may be worth maximizing on his value while its up.
Austin Jackson- The good news for Austin Jackson and his fantasy owners is that the month of May is over. The bad news is that Jackson still has not been able to turn his heightened Fly Ball Rate (43.1% on the season) into any semblance of consistent power, and this above average rate may not be in the cards for much longer. Jackson has slowly begun regressing away from his fly ball dominate contact rates as the season has moved on. Jackson's Fly Ball Rate has regressed in each month of the season to date (55.4% in April, 40% in May, 31.9% in June). While his Line Drive Rate has begun to move in the opposite direction, it seems Jackson may find himself stuck between two trends and less useful to fantasy owners this season because of it. As his Fly Ball Rate decreases, his likelihood to put up home run totals in excess of the 12 he had in 2013 decreases greatly, and his early season trends may have sunk his average from ever meeting the .272 threshold from 2013. At this point, the only mark he seems sure to eclipse from last year is his stolen base total. He already has 7 through 280 Plate Appearances when he had 8 all of last season. Jackson's owners would be glad to see 10 HR and 15 SB at this point of the season. Even that type of production is not guaranteed. It seems very much like it will end up being a disappointing season for Austin Jackson.
Shin-Soo Choo- It is always tough to be the last one standing without a chair when the music stops. I have a feeling that is very much the sensation for the Texas Rangers and Shin-Soo Choo's fantasy owners this season considering his performance thus far. There are some good things to say about Choo though. He is still an on base machine, and his .305 BABIP is below his career norm and his three year averages, which indicates that he may be in line for a positive regression in his batting average. This is especially true when we consider that, for some reason, Choo isn't hitting right handed pitching this season. Normally a dominate player against righties, Choo has a .285 BABIP against them in 2014, which is almost a hundred points below his three year average. I would expect this will correct itself over the course of the next three months to a certain extent. While Choo's batting average may regress positively, I'm not as convinced that the power/speed combination that made him so valuable will follow suit. Given Choo's current pace on stolen bases (3 steals in 3 attempts), there is absolutely no chance he will meet the 20 stolen base threshold he has in 4 of his previous 5 seasons. He still could conceivably meet the 20 home run mark if he can catch a hot streak in the coming weeks, but overall, the lack of stolen base opportunities has dragged his value significantly. I'm not sure you can sell Choo at value based on where he was drafted, but if you can find someone to pay for the name value, it could be worth it to shop him.
Kendrys Morales- The short sample size has not been kind to Kendrys Morales since signing with the Twins. Morales has found little luck and even less power through his first 13 games, which has left fantasy owners wondering whether it was worth picking him up in the first place. The good news for Morales is that it is unlikely his current trends persist throughout the season so it may just be a matter of sticking it out while the rust gets knocked off. Remember, this is still essentially spring training for Morales. His .268 BABIP is 30-40 points off his career and three year averages so there is reasonable belief that as his single's percentage normalizes so will his batting average. I'm a bit more concerned with Morales power returning though. For the last four seasons, Morales has trended towards hitting more ground balls, which has topped out early this season in a 56.1% Ground Ball Rate. I expect this will regress some over time, but it won't regress as much as we would like especially for a middle of the order power hitter. Morales had already seen a decreasing trend in ISO and HR/FB from 2012 to 2013 as it took him 135 more plate appearances to hit 1 more home run. Given the shortage of basically 10 weeks of playing time, it is wildly unlikely that Morales will be able to produce enough home runs or RBI's to make him more than a plug-in for mixed league formats. If you picked up Morales, he isn't as bad as he is showing currently, but he, also, is not going to produce numbers near his previous seasons. Overall, if you get 10 home runs out of him, you should consider it a success.
C.J. Cron- With last week's news that Raul Ibanez was released by the Angels, the value on C.J. Cron has jumped considerably. Cron has always been able to hit for power. With his playing time set, fantasy owners will be able to take advantage of that skill. Cron is a fly ball dominate hitter posting a 45.6% Fly Ball Rate and a 14.6% HR/FB Rate. His BB Rate is horrendous at 2.6% and his 19.0% K Rate won't do your batting average any favors, but if you are in on Cron, you probably aren't expecting him to carry you in batting average. Cron reminds me a bit of Mark Trumbo during Trumbo's first season with the Angels. The comparison isn't perfect, but they are similar in what they bring to the table. Both players are right handed power. Cron will strike out a bit less often and walk less as well, but both players have the ability to ride the ball out of the ball park. If Cron plays every day, he has an outside chance at 15-17 home runs this season with considerably more promise in coming seasons depending on his playing time. For now, fantasy owners in need of corner infield or first base power should look no further than Cron, who is only owned in about 15% of leagues.
Today's American League Player Blog is brought to you by Nicholas Rossoletti. You can follow Nicholas on Twitter @NRoss56
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