AL Player Analysis - June 8th, 2014

Eric Hosmer (1B-KC) - Eric Hosmer hit his 1st homerun in over a month on Saturday against the Yankees. On the season, the Royal's first baseman has put up a disappointing .259/.298/.361 slash line with 2 HR and 28 RBI. His walks are down and his strikeouts are up but he is 5th in the league with doubles. Hosmer has historically been a slow starter in April and May (combined batting average is nearly 30 points higher in June-September than in March-May) so this may be a great buying opportunity to acquire the young slugger for a deep discount. For what it's worth, on June 7, 2013, Hosmer was hitting .270/.324/.338 with 1 HR and 18 RBI and still finished the year posting .302/.353/.448 with 17 HR and 79 RBI. Buy, buy, buy.

Kevin Gausman (SP-BAL) - Kevin Gausman returned to the big leagues and threw a gem in a tough match-up at home against the Oakland Athletics. The rookie went 7 innings while giving up just a solo homerun to Coco Crisp in the 3rd inning. Gausman flashed his big arm by striking out 6 batters and routinely touching the high-90's with his fastball. In 47.2 innings last year, Gausman struck out 24% of the hitters he faced, while inducing about 42% groundballs. His ERA was pretty ugly at 5.66 but his SIERA was just 3.06, suggesting that the former might have been a little inflated. The biggest issue for Gausman in 2013 was his 19% HR/FB ratio. If he can continue to get hitters to hit the ball in the ground, rather than in the air, Gausman could become mixed league relevant by as early as later this year. In the meantime, he's worth a flier in most leagues if you have an open roster position, just be cautious with the matchups (i.e. his next start vs Toronto).

Sonny Gray (SP-OAK) - Sonny Gray had his first poor outing of the year on Saturday, allowing 5 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks over 5.1 innings. He did strike out 7 batters. Relative to draft position, Sonny Gray has been one of the biggest overperformers in 2014. Despite the hiccup today, Gray's overall numbers still look strong and his outlook for the rest of the year remains mostly positive, even though some regression is expected. Specifically, the righty's BABIP of .263 is pretty low considering the 19% LD rate he's currently giving up. His swinging strike and chase rates are both below league average so I don't see much upside to his current 20% league-average strikeout rate. On the positive side, his 55% groundball rate ranks in the top-10 of all starting pitchers and his home ballpark is quite favorable to pitchers. If someone in a re-draft league is willing to pay you elite starting pitching value for Sonny Gray, I'm willing to take the bait and move him. However, I'm still confident he'll finish the year as a solid contributor for fantasy teams and I'm not ready to consider him a "sell-high".

Adam Jones (OF-BAL) - Adam Jones has been scorching hot this month. On Saturday, Jones hit his 3rd home run in June to go along with 9 RBI and a .444 batting average. It's a nice little hot streak for Jones, but his underlying statistics point to further regression in the future. For starters, his BABIP of .337 is slightly inflated considering that he's currently hitting line drives a career low 16.3% of the time. Further compounding the problems are the high groundball rates and a contact rate around his career baseline(roughly 5% lower than the league average). The good news is that there is upside to his homerun total thanks for an artificially low HR/FB ratio (12% vs career 15%). I would consider Adam Jones a hold for now.

Mark Buehrle (SP-TOR) - Going into Saturday's clash with the Cardinals, Mark Buehrle had quality starts in all but two of his games this year. He kept that streak alive by going 7 innings while allowing just one run on 5 hits and an uncharacteristic 5 walks. Unfortunately, Buehrle failed to get the win because Shelby Miller twirled 9 innings of shutout baseball and the Toronto bullpen gave up 4 runs. On the season, Buehrle continues to have favorable luck, highlighted by the 24% LD rate and BABIP below .300 (should be closer to .360 considering that high LD rate). Other than the luck, there aren't a whole lot of other indicators that are substantially different this year versus recent years, with his contact rate actually higher and his chase rate lower. It would likely be difficult finding anyone who buys into his performance to begin the year, so fantasy owners need to just cross their fingers and ride the wave while it continues.

Follow me on Twitter @MichaelWaldo to get player tidbits this season. I'll happily answer any keeper or trade questions for your team. You can follow Fantistics on Twitter @Fantistics.

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