Everth Cabrera- Everth Cabrera has been a cheap source of steals from a middle infield spot for each of the last two seasons. Cabrera is still running in 2014 as he has accumulated 5 SB through 33 games although his inability to get on base is greatly limiting his ability to be the asset he was in steals during 2012 and 2013. The number that should jump out to anyone analyzing Cabrera is his atrocious 2.8% BB Rate in 2014. This is a player who had a very adequate 9.4% BB Rate in 2014 and 9.6% in 2012. This alone is really quite concerning. Cabrera had cut down on his strike outs in 2013 reducing his K Rate from 24.5% in 2012 to 15.9% in 2013, but this seems like an outlier. His Swinging Strike Rate is back up to the 8+% of 2012, which has led to his K Rate jumping back up to 25% in 2014. This means that Cabrera's .283 batting average of 2013 is probably not a realistic expectation for this season, but in 2012, he still swiped 44 bases despite a .246 batting average. The problem, again, is that he was walking in almost 10% of his plate appearances that season. If he isn't hitting and he isn't walking, well as the old adage goes "you can't steal first base." I don't see enough value in Cabrera that he should be starting in any league, but he should probably remain owned in NL-only league formats. His BB Rate may regress back to the mean, which would provide more stolen base opportunities. With that being said, we are probably looking at his third year running of decreased steal totals and a 30-40 point dip in batting average from 2013. As he offers little value in any other statistical categories, he is safe to release into the wild in mixed league formats for more productive options.
Brandon Phillips- From 2006 until 2012, Brandon Phillips was a banner fantasy player. A player who combined speed and power to the delight of his fantasy owners. He went 7 straight seasons producing at least 15 HR and 15 SB. Sadly, it does not appear that Brandon Phillips will be walking through the doors for fantasy owners again. Age has diminished Phillips speed to make his contributions to the stolen base category largely irrelevant. He managed to only steal 5 bases in all of 2013, and he has yet to steal a base in 2014. Age has, also, seemingly rotted away his power. Phillips' ISO has decreased four years running (.157 in 2011, .148 in 2012, .135 in 2013 and .102 in 2014). While the drop to from .135 to .102 seems drastic and likely to regress towards his career mean, another 10 or 12 point drop in ISO does not bode well for him repeating his standard 18 HR a season, which he has produced 4 years running. To add to the issues, Phillips is striking out at his highest rate since he broke into the big leagues in 2003 at 19.3%, which can be largely attributed to a 13.4% Swinging Strike Rate (also a personal high since 2006) while posting a 3.7% BB Rate. This lack of plate patience when combined with a high .340 BABIP seems to indicate that Phillips .283 batting average is not a realistic expectation for his production moving forward. To be quite honest, everything here is a fairly large mess right now. You could hang onto Phillips and wait for him to figure it all out, but I'm afraid there won't be the return on your investment you hoped for when you drafted him. It might be time to cut bait and see if someone will think they are "buying low" on Phillips based on his name value. Although that train might have left the station after last year's disappointing campaign.
Jedd Gyorko- My readers seem obsessed with under-performing NL second baseman this week. Jedd Gyorko has been a gigantic disappointment early on in the season, but his numbers seem destined to rebound. His .190 BABIP is exceedingly low to start the year, and while his 27.2% K Rate will stunt his batting average to well less than the .240-.250 hitter we assumed he would be, a regression in his BABIP should increase his average significantly from its current .158. Gyorko has also shown slightly more plate patience this season as he has increased his BB Rate to 7.2% while decreasing his Swinging Strike Rate to 11.4%. While these are minor improvements from 2013, it is still a positive to see from a player. This is especially true during a frustrating start where a player might press and over swing to compensate for his failures. A fairly low Line Drive Rate of 14.6% and an 46.3% Ground Ball Rate could help explain some Gyorko's BABIP woes as he is just not making as much solid contact in 2014 as he did the prior year. It is early enough to expect that these numbers will regress closer to his 2013 sample, but if he does not start making more hard contact, it will be hard to buy into him as a legit fantasy option moving forward. In deep leagues and keeper/dynasty formats, Gyorko should be held onto although he absolute should be stationed on your bench. In re-draft leagues or shallow leagues, Gyorko can arguably be dropped although I'd still hold if I didn't have a really strong replacement for him. I still believe there is a rebound coming from this player, and I think the numbers support that position although expectations need to be updated from what we thought he was in the pre-season.
Pedro Alvarez- Pedro Alvarez, is for lack of a more witty or time relevant quip, exactly who we thought he was. If you walked out of a draft with Alvarez and thought 'maybe I'll get my 35-40 HR AND he will finally hit for a .260-.270 average', well sir, you are excellent at lying to yourself. Alvarez has actually made significant progress with his plate patience this season. He is walking a terrific 12.6% of the time while reducing his K Rate almost 10 points from 30.3% in 2013 to 21% in 2014. His Swinging Strike Rate is down 5 points from 16.4% in 2013 to 11.4% in 2014, and his BABIP is actually well below his three year average at .209. This means his average will rebound from .210 to a more respectable number. I don't think its jumping 50 or 60 points given a 44.7% Ground Ball Rate, which is supported by his career averages. Plus the fact that he still strikes out 20% of the time. With that being said, his average will get better, and he is among the young power elite in the game right now. His HR/FB of 19.5% is actually well below his averages from both 2013 and 2014 and should regress over time back towards the 25-26% range. This means the 8 HR so far in 2014 are not only not a fluke, but it is highly likely that as he progresses the ball starts leaving the yard more often per fly ball. A safe projection for Alvarez is another 30 home run season in the middle of the Pirates lineup. An optimistic projection is in excess of 35 home runs in that same lineup spot. In either case, you will live with the batting average problems in exchange for him murdering baseballs for your fantasy team and driving in runs by the fistful. As I said, he is exactly who we thought he is, and that is a power machine.
Marcell Ozuna- I'll admit to being far too critical of Marcell Ozuna in the pre-season. My Marlins' pre-season pieces for Fantistics have turned out to be largely too negative from killing Nathan Eovaldi and Henderson Alvarez, both of whom look terrific early, to being largely critical of Ozuna as a player who was not prepared to play every day in the big leagues after only having 47 plate appearances above A ball before being called up in 2013. The Fish have had a great time making me look like a fool. Ozuna has begun to adjust very nicely to big league pitching. His plate patience is looking up from 2013 as his BB Rate is up to 6.8% from 4.5%. While he isn't grinding through pitchers, a 2.3% increase is a very nice start for a player as young as Ozuna. His ISO is up to .163 and his BABIP is a reasonable .312 meaning his batting average shouldn't regress too much from his current .276. He isn't without his warts though. He is still striking out about 19% of the time, his Swinging Strike Rate is actually up to 14.8% from 12.2% in 2013, and he is hitting far too many ground balls (53.6%) and not nearly enough line drives (13.4%) to continue to be a truly effective fantasy asset. With that being said, he is showing growth and development. If his contact rates can regress towards his 2013 averages, he could very well place himself in the conversation for a must own outfielder in all formats if he hasn't already.
Today's NL Player Blog is brought to you by Nicholas Rossoletti. You can follow Nicholas Rossoletti on Twitter @NRoss56
This is just a small sample our our daily analysis, join our member area for more premium content: http://www.fantistics.com/join/join.php3
