Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs - Arrieta had a decent outing against the Giants picking up his first loss of the season along with allowing four runs in six innings. Arrieta has yet to throw more than six innings on the season in his five starts that he has made, and the four earned runs were a season high for the righty. Despite his four runs allowed his FIP for the game was just 1.55 and he lowered his season FIP to 2.70. A cause for concern is his career high strikeout rate, which is two K/9 higher than his career average, and his .364 BABIP. If his K/9 begins to drop that BABIP becomes even worse because there will be more base runners reaching to effect his 76.5% LOB rate. Granted, his BABIP is also well above his career average, so if he can get that to dip down he will be much better off even if his K/9 does take a slight dip. It's an interesting situation to be in and it will something to monitor his next time out.
Alfredo Simon, Cincinnati Reds - Simon was roughed up Tuesday lasting just 3.2 innings and allowing nine base runners in his short time on the mound. Simon had thrown two great outings since facing the Rockies on May 10th before this start. While Simon's traditional stats have been great for owners (6-3, 2.90) his advanced stats show that this may just be the beginning of his regression. His FIP sits at 4.78 and that includes a BABIP that is 60 points below his career average. As that begins to normalize, it will cause an even higher rise in his FIP and ERA, and his LOB% is currently 10% higher than his career level. He is a sell high candidate for me, as there are just too many numbers that point in the wrong direction.
Ben Revere, Philadelphia Phillies - After over 1,500 career major league at bats, we finally saw the long awaited first homer from Ben Revere. It can be predicted with fair certainty that this will be his only homer of 2014, but Revere is still a solid fantasy outfielder in all leagues. He is able to bring a high level of steals despite his career .322 OBP which has come mostly out of the leadoff spot. Simple math puts Revere on a pace for 45 steals as he has 12 through 43 games, and the 45 steals would five more than his career high. Across the board, Revere's stats are right in line with his career average so a continuation of what he is doing now can pretty much be expected across the board with a slightly higher stolen base rate.
Khris Davis, Milwaukee Brewers - Davis homered for the second straight game, and now has launched a homer in four of his last eight bringing his total to seven on the season. His ISO has steadily began to climb and now sits at a pretty .222 for the season. While he is striking out still at a 26% pace, owners didn't drafted his for his high batting average. His .325 wOBA ranks just outside of the top 30 for outfielders as does his 103 wRC+ thanks in part to this hot streak. Davis has been hitting a similar amount of fly balls that he did in the second half of 2013, but his HR/FB rate has been cut in half in 2013. While it's unrealistic to expect a 28% HR/FB out of Davis, if he can hover around 20% he'll be a very interesting fantasy option over the rest of the season.
Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves - Heyward took Jon Lester deep to lead off the game for the Braves giving the outfielder four homers on the season. Heyward's lack of power production has been interesting as he has just a .086 ISO, far below his career average of .175. The homer was both his first homer and extra base hit since May 11th, which was the first day of an 11 game hit streak for Heyward. Hitting at the top of the lineup with sacrifice some RBI chances for Heyward, but his run totals are also very low for outfielders as he entered Tuesday tied for 47th among outfielders in runs scored. I'm pegging Heyward as a buy low candidate as his 4.8% HR/FB rate is almost 10% lower than his career average combined with a higher than average FB rate in 2014.
Josh Sperry - @jsperry1991
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