Tony Cingrani (SP-CIN): The Cubs chased Tony Cingrani after 4 innings. The lefty allowed 3 earned runs on 6 hits and 2 walks in 4 innings, striking out only 2. While his velocity was down yesterday, the lefty said he is fine and simply felt "a little fatigued." Cingrani had a troublesome 10% BB-rate in 2013 and that concern is heightened with the 13% mark he has posted thus far. While the 25% K-rate will continue to entice owners in yearly and daily formats, I would be looking to sell for 90 cents on the dollar. His 3.34 ERA and 4.27 xFIP suggest more regression is in order. While Cingrani is throwing more sliders and changeups to get hitters off of his fastball, hitters are not chasing, as they are expanding the zone only 21% of the time compared to 27% last season. I wouldn't give him away or drop him, but if you find no trade partners, I advise benching until you see two consecutive quality starts. He needs to get those pitch counts down to work deeper into games, and that won't happen until he finds control of his fastball and confidence with secondary pitches.
Shelby Miller (SP-STL): Shelby Miller battled through 6 innings and picked up the W. He allowed 3 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks, oddly only striking out 1 batter. Miller has been a bit of an enigma this season, as he has posted a 26:21 K:BB ratio in 34 and 1/3 innings with a 3.15 ERA vs. a 4.88 xFIP and a 6.18 FIP thanks to those 7 homers allowed. Stan McNeal joined us on the Sirius XM Fantistics show this weekend and talked about Miller working to become more of a pitcher, and the righty featured a 4-pitch mix with more 2-seamers yesterday. He'll likely be a volatile play in moving forward while he figures things out, but I suspect the numbers will resemble a quality #4 fantasy starter at worst in mixed leagues by year's end.
Matt Adams (1B-STL): Matt Adams only had 1 hit in 5 AB's, but he made it count, smashing a 3-run homer, his second of the season, moving his line to .321/.339/.477. While Adams is a safe bet to hit 25+ homers, I don't advise reaching to buy. He has 3 walks vs. 24 strikeouts, carries a .398 BABIP, and is continuing his struggles against lefties (3 for 19, 0 XBH). He is a viable corner infielder in the majority of mixed leagues, but don't let the average deceive. I see more of a .260/.320/.470 line in his future.
Nate Eovaldi (SP-MIA): Nate Eovaldi continued to impress, allowing 1 earned run on 3 hits and 1 walk and adding 5 strikeouts in picking up his 2nd win of the season. He now boasts a 2.58 ERA/3.12 xFIP and a 35:5 K:BB ratio through 38 and 1/3 innings. He has been pairing his 96 MPH heater with more 2-seamers, leading to an increase in his GB-rate. We could be looking at one of 2014's bigger breakout stories, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him ranked as at least a top-40 pitcher by year's end.
Marcell Ozuna (OF-MIA): Marcell Ozuna hit his 4th homer of the season as part of a 2-for-4, 1-run, 3-RBI night to move his line to .310/.364/.480 with 16 RBI and 15 runs through 26 games. The .40 EYE and .170 ISO look legit, as Ozuna consistently posted marks above those in the low minors. Many scouts see plenty of raw, untapped power and skill with Ozuna, and while he struggled to find his stroke last year in the Majors, he looks to be developing right before our eyes. The above-average swinging-strike rate and below-average contact rate lead me to temper expectations, but the fact that he is chasing less shows that something is brewing with Ozuna. Put it all together and I see him putting up numbers akin to a top-50 ROTO outfielder in 2014.
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