Jose Reyes- I will admit to being down on Jose Reyes at the beginning of the season. A 2013 marred by injury had me second guessing Reyes as reasonable option for 2014. Early on, another hamstring issue seemed to prove that doubt correct, but since his return from the disabled list, Reyes has done a fair job of showing me that he still has it. Particularly, Reyes' speed ratings have bounced back significantly in 2014. His 7.9 rating is on par with his 2011 and 2012 numbers when he stole 39 and 40 bases respectively. This is a huge jump from last year's 4.4 rating which was a career low. I wouldn't have predicted the soon to be 31 year old to show a renewed spike in his speed numbers given his injury history. To add to his re-gained speed, Reyes is walking more and striking out less than he did in 2013. His 9.4% BB Rate and 9.4% K Rate are within reasonable distance of his three year and career averages. While there might be some negative regression in those numbers, it should not be enough to really damage his value much moving forward. Where Reyes will really find his value is in a regression on his single's percentage. His current BABIP of .256 is well below his career mean and is forty-two (42) points less than his 2012 number of .298. Even given a decreased Line Drive Rate (16.7% to approximately a 21% three year average) and an increased Fly Ball Rate (10% higher than his career mean), a regression in that BABIP should be expected. Owner's can look for his average to rise between 25-40 points over the course of the next four months, which will also lead to more opportunities on the base paths. As long as Reyes is healthy, he is an excellent option moving forward in the Runs, Stolen Bases and Batting Average categories. The time to "buy-low" may have passed thanks to 5 stolen bases between Thursday and Monday, but I believe there will be value in Reyes moving forward.
Mike Zunino- About a month ago, I wrote up Zunino and expressed my doubts about the Mariners' catcher's ability to continue to hit for average. Not surprisingly, Zunino has regressed from that .280 average in late April to a much more realistic .237 average in late May. There is good news for Zunino despite that large drop in his average. Part of the good news is that the regression is probably pretty close to over, and he should maintain this type of batting average moving forward. Additionally, the Mariners have announced that, at least for the time being, Zunino will be batting fifth in their order. When Zunino does hit, this type of premier placement should help him accumulate more counting statistics (specifically RBI's) than we would have originally projected from his normal slot in the 7-9 holes. He is showing solid pop with a 39.8% Fly Ball Rate and a 16.2% HR/FB while increasing his Line Drive Rate to 20.4% and decreasing his Ground Ball Rate. All of this is solid progress for a player who should end up in that 12-16 homer range we originally discussed. Given his new placement and reasonable power, Zunino could be looking at a nice bump in RBI production from where several major projection services had him in the pre-season. He is still a borderline second catcher in deep mixed formats, but he is a guy worth owning in keeper and dynasty formats if only for his age, solid Fly Ball tendencies and appealing power. There might be a couple 20-25 home run seasons in his bat moving forward. For now, deeper mixed leagues and AL-Only value is mostly where Zunino should be owned.
Austin Jackson- Austin Jackson is beginning to remind me of Wille Mays Hays from Major League. I'm this close to expecting Brad Ausmus to run out of the dugout and scream at Jackson to start doing push-ups every time he hits a fly ball. We all know that in reality, we should be fine with Jackson hitting more fly balls, but it hasn't translated yet into success. Jackson's value to fantasy owner's has always been as a reasonable top of the order player with strong totals in Runs, Steals and Batting Average. Traditionally a line drive hitter that used his speed to get on base and do damage, Jackson is now a predominately fly ball hitter. His Fly Ball Rate is an astronomical 47.8%. The issue with that is that he has only a 4.5% HR/FB Rate this season and a 7.5% rate on his career. For fantasy purposes, not enough of those fly balls are finding gaps and the seats, and Jackson is now being used more at the top of the line-up, which leaves us with less in the way of RBI opportunities. Everything seems to be leaning towards Jackson becoming a more complete hitter. He is striking out a lot less than his career average (16.5% to 23.4%), walking about the same rate and putting the ball in the air more. Most of the fly balls are traveling as well as his IFFB% is only 4.5%. The only question is: will Jackson begin putting the ball out of the park enough to translate his new found profile into fantasy value? I can't say for sure, but I'm advising everyone to watch Jackson very carefully. The numbers scream that a power break-out is on the way, but it just hasn't happened yet. There is the chance he is in that nether region where he doesn't hit for enough power or steal enough bases to be truly mixed league fantasy relevant, but I still believe he will find his way. Maybe just a couple more push-ups.
Jon Lester- It has been a strange roller coaster for Jon Lester during 2014. Arguably, the first 11 starts of 2014 has been Lester's most dominating strikeout innings of his career, which is truly saying something. Lester's K Rate of 27.8% is a terrific rate and would be the best of his career to date. His 7.1% BB Rate is on par with his last three years and would, again, be the best of his career. Despite this, Lester seen a fairly aggressive change in contact rates, which have caused him to give up more hits than he would traditionally. Tuesday was a fair example of this situation. Lester struck out 7, walked 3 but gave up 8 hits over the course of 6 IP while giving up 3 earned runs. The 8 hits are a perfect lead in to the biggest problem's Lester has faced to date. His BABIP Against on the season is .339, which is 37 points higher than his career norm. This is effected by being a bit unlucky, but even more so, it is being effected by a 24.4% Line Drive Rate, which is a career worst. The change in contact rate from primarily a ground ball pitcher to a line drive/fly ball pitcher has not helped Lester take advantage of his dominating control of the strike zone. Lester will continue to be a fantasy ace thanks to his strike out numbers, but I'm not sure we can expect to see a regression in his ERA until we see his contact rates revert closer to his career norms.
Michael Brantley- Michael Brantley is slowly inching his way towards a potential 20/20 season, which almost no one saw coming. While I'm amongst the fantasy owners benefiting from Brantley's sudden eruption, I have to preach caution to overvaluing his current contributions. Brantley has shown almost no change in contact rates, and in fact, he is hitting less line drives and more ground balls in 2014. His new found power is tied entirely to a 17.6% HR/FB rate which would be a career high by almost 11 percentage points. Brantley is actually a below average fly ball hitter, and nothing in his contact rates supports a sudden 96 point jump in his ISO. While there is certainly some truth to there being a "power prime" for players, this large of a jump screams statistical outlier. His current totals are quite close to the power/speed production most expected from Brantley coming into the season. I'd start gauging the market in your league to see Brantley's value. I'm just not as convinced he can repeat this kind of performance during the second half.
Today's AL Player Blog has been brought to you by Nicholas Rossoletti. You can follow Nicholas on Twitter @NRoss56
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