Garrett Richards (SP-LAA). Richards' strong start to the season continued Friday night against the Blue Jays. Richards went 7 innings, giving up only 2 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6 against a strong Toronto lineup, although the Angel bullpen blew his chance for a win. Richards is the epitome of the post-hype sleeper, as he made his major league debut with great fanfare in 2011 and has generally been viewed as a disappointment as a result of his inability to establish himself in the Angels' rotation. However, Richards made significant strides at the end of 2013, although those were somewhat obscured by his still somewhat unsightly 4.20 ERA. Richards improved his K% from 14.8% in 2012 to 16.3% in 2013 while lowering his BB% from 10.7% to 7.1%. Richards also saw a significant increase in his GB rate from 45.5% to 57.9%. These improvements while not reflected in Richards' actual ERA, did show up in his FIP and xFIP, which were 3.66 and 3.58, respectively, and which are probably fairly good indicators of Richards' expected ERA for 2014. So far in 2014, Richards has maintained or improved upon most of the gains he made in 2013, as he has increased his K% to 25.8% while maintaining an excellent GB rate of 52.1%. One possible cause for concern is that Richards' command has slipped a bit, with his BB% increasing to 11.6% (although this may be an acceptable tradeoff if he can maintain the strikeout gains). Richards has benefited from a .253 BABIP and a 3.8% HR/FB rate, so some regression from his current 2.84 ERA should probably be expected (Richards' xFIP is 3.36), but all-in-all, there's a lot to like here and Richards makes for a more than adequate back end starter in most formats (although owners may want to consider not using him against the more potent offenses in the league).
Phil Hughes (SP-MIN). Friday night gave an opportunity to check in on Hughes, who was a popular sleeper candidate this spring, in a tough assignment against the Tigers. After a rough first couple outings, Hughes is demonstrating that the sleeper designation may have been warranted, as he ran his record to 4-1 by shutting out the Tigers for 7 innings, giving up 8 hits. The only downside to Hughes' outing was that he only managed 3 Ks. The outing lowered Hughes' ERA to 3.92, which is fully supportable, as evidenced by his 3.30 FIP and 3.84 xFIP. Getting out of Yankee stadium was obviously beneficial to Hughes, but he has also made some improvements himself, shaving a full walk off his BB/9 rate, while maintaining a roughly 7.5 K/9 rate. If Hughes can maintain these improvements, he can provide solid value over the remainder of the season in all formats.
Rougned Odor (2B-TEX). With their record having dropped to .500 after another thrashing at the hands of the Rockies on Wednesday night, the Rangers finally broke down and promoted 2B prospect Rougned Odor from AA. Ranked as the Rangers' top prospect (and #39 overall) by Baseball Prospectus, Odor is a must-add in AL only formats and a good speculative add for mixed leaguers who have available bench spots. Odor posted a .279/.314/.450 line with 6 HR and 6 SBs in 138 plate appearances in AA this year, and projects to post double digit HR and SB totals with a BA in the .280 to .290 range with full time duty (his 2014 minor league BA is probably understated, as he had a .294 BABIP this year in the minors, which is low for a player with his speed). Mixed leaguers should not go crazy with their FAAB money, however, as unless Odor completely explodes, he is only keeping the spot warm for Jurickson Profar, who is expected back from his shoulder injury within a month. Those in need of help in the SB category should at least consider a bid, however, as Odor piled up 32 steals between High-A and AA in 2013 and he could chip in 5 or 6 between now and Profar's return.
Jake Odorizzi (SP-TB). Odorizzi started against the Indians on Friday night and showed vast improvement, pitching 5 shutout innings while striking out 11. Unfortunately the big K numbers ran up Odorizzi's pitch count, forcing him out of the game after only 5 innings and the bullpen proceeded to give up 6 runs in the remaining 4 innings, denying Odorizzi a win. Odorizzi's season has gotten off to a rocky start, as he came into the evening with a 6.83 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. Odorizzi has always received more hype than his true talent probably warranted, as he obtained considerable name recognition as a result of his inclusion in two of the higher profile trades in recent memory (from the Brewers to the Royals in the Zack Greinke trade and from the Royals to the Rays in the James Shields/Wil Myers deal). Despite the hype, the scouts have generally been consistent in their opinions that Odorizzi's ceiling is that of a mid-rotation starter at best, and these opinions have been borne out by the results to date. Odorizzi is not as bad as he has been through his first 6 starts of 2014 (his numbers are being inflated by a .376 BABIP and a 65.3% strand rate) and he has shown signs of growth by increasing his K% from 18% in 2013 to 20.2% so far this year. However, the K rate increase has been accompanied by an increase in BB% from 6.6% to 10.9%, which indicates a disturbing lack of command. Further, given his performance to date, Odorizzi is in serious jeopardy of losing his spot in the Tampa rotation once Alex Cobb and Jeremy Hellickson return from the DL. Odorizzi is therefore not a recommended add, even with the likelihood of some favorable regression to the mean in his future.
Clay Buchholz (SP-BOS). Buchholz followed up his strong start against Oakland last week (6.1 IP 1 ER 5Ks) with a clunker against the Rangers in Texas on Friday night. Buchholz lasted only 4.1 innings, giving up 6 ER on 10 hits while striking out only 3. The thrashing raised Buchholz' season ERA to 6.44. While has shown improved velocity in his last few starts (averaging 93.6 MPH on his fastball in his start against Oakland), tonight's start demonstrates the risk of starting Buchholz against elite offenses in hitters' parks. Buchholz' numbers are being adversely affected by bad luck, as he is suffering from a .375 BABIP and a 59.9% strand rate. Even with some anticipated regression to the mean, however, Buchholz' peripherals indicate that the best that can be expected is an ERA in the low 4s. That makes Buchholz a streaming option against weaker offenses at best
