Yasiel Puig- There may not be a more electric player in all of baseball than Yasiel Puig. As exciting as he is to watch perform on the field, there is some wild variance in his performance that leads me to question whether Puig is truly an elite fantasy option. Primarily, Puig's batting average early on seems more realistic than his .319 average in 2013. A .383 BABIP may have artificially inflated Puig's average especially considering a 22.5% K Rate. This season, Puig's BABIP of .304 early on seems like a more reasonable number in comparison to league average. While he is showing increased plate patience (a decreased 20.5% K Rate to an increased 11.0% BB Rate early one), Puig's batting average will probably fall closer to the .270-.280 mark than the .319 of 2013. Our second red flag that regression may be in order is a spectacular 21.8% HR/FB rate. While this is not a completely ridiculous number for a great power hitter, it is probably less sustainable given his home ball park. I still believe that Puig is a realistic candidate for 20-25 HR/15 SB, which places him in the upper echelon of fantasy outfielders, but pre-season hype machines may have made owners expect more than what is realistic. Hang tight with Puig, and you will have a strong to very strong fantasy outfielder for 2014. As he continues to learn pitchers and if his plate patience continues to develop, the sky is the limit for his talent in coming seasons.
Kolton Wong- I was asked on Twitter on Tuesday whether Kolton Wong was just "dead space" or not. My thought is that Wong is a bit more than "dead space", but mixed league owners can probably do better with their second base spot than the Cardinals pivot man right now. Wong really only contributes strongly to one fantasy category, which is steals. He shows pretty strong speed statistics, but he does not find the base paths enough to contribute more than 15-20 steals to any fantasy roster. The problem is he has shown almost no power during his stints in the big leagues (.017 ISO in 2013, .048 ISO so far in 2014). His .255 BABIP seems low for a player with his speed, and I expect that to regress closer to league average. Even then, you are looking at a .255-.270 hitter with no power and about 20 or so steals. In deep NL-only formats, this type of player may have value as he should receive regular playing time, and there is an outside chance that he begins to run more if he finds more success. In mixed league formats, there are players that will provide more complete production at his position.
Mike Olt- The Cubs announced on Wednesday that Mike Olt would begin to see more regular time at third base moving forward. Olt is a one trick pony for fantasy purposes and that trick is power out of the hot corner. When healthy and given extended playing time, Olt has almost always hit for power. In 48 Plate Appearances in 2014, Olt has already mashed 4 HR and is sitting on a .317 ISO. The problem with Olt is that he is truly a boom or bust player. He is hitting exactly the same number of ground balls as fly balls so far (44.4%) while striking out 31.8% of the time to only a 4.5% BB Rate. His .174 BABIP is ridiculously low so his batting average will bounce back from its current .195, but if it breaks .225, it would be a huge surprise. I'm not saying that you should stay away from Mike Olt. There are almost always places for power hitting third baseman that don't hit for average, just ask Mark Reynolds. If you are inclined to roster Olt, I would suggest that perhaps a platoon where Olt is playing predominately against LHP might be the best way to maximize his power while trying to minimize his negative effect on batting average. Obviously this strategy only works in daily leagues. In weekly leagues, it will be a bumpier ride.
Michael Morse- Michael Morse took center stage for the Giants on Wednesday afternoon blasting 2 HR out of the clean-up spot. Morse has been plagued by injury and ineffectiveness the last two seasons, which lead to fantasy owners largely ignoring Morse in mixed league drafts. With 5 HR in 70 Plate Appearances, Morse is reminding owners of the player who managed 31 dingers in 2011 for the Nationals. Morse's .326 BABIP seems high in comparison to league averages, but his personal history shows a fair statistical representation of above average BABIP meaning that his .266 batting average may not be slated to regress very much. His Ground Ball/Fly Ball Rates and BB Rate are all in close proximity to his best professional seasons, and none of them are so out of whack to expect a large scale regression to the mean. Morse's value will be almost exclusively tied to his ability to maintain his health and continue to hit for power. At this point, I can't say you will get the 30 HR power from 2011, but it is very realistic that Morse could end up around 25 HR batting in very nice position in the middle of the Giants line-up all season. There is good value there especially given what his cost was pre-season.
Aaron Harang- Aaron Harang continued his resurgence on Wednesday with a 6 IP, 1 ER, 1 BB and 11 K performance. Harang has provided a fairly mundane inning eating presence for his employers over the last four seasons, but this season he is back to his 2007-08 form early on. While Wednesday's performance was amazing, his opponent had something to do with it. The Marlins are chalked full of players who strike out a TON. Remember that this is the second Braves' starter to strike out 11 Marlins in the last two days, and the Marlins have struck out 29 times over the last 18 innings as a team. I'm saying this not to belittle Harang but to caution fantasy owners not to overestimate the performance. Harang's 22.7% K Rate is very useful on the back end of a fantasy rotation although there are major red flags that his ERA will jump back in line with his last several years. His 90.5% strand rate combined with a .143 BABIP Against leads us to the conclusion that 1) players are getting really unlucky on balls in play and 2) Harang is getting fairly lucky at getting out of jams. To add to the issues, Harang owns a 54.2% Fly Ball Rate, but he has yet to allow a home run in 2014. Even in his best seasons, Harang has been fly ball prone with a tendency towards giving up the dinger. None of this seems like a recipe for sustainable success. I'd continue to run Harang out there against lesser offenses, but pick and choose your spots. A 11 K game against the Fish doesn't mean that Harang should be run out there every start.
Today's NL Player Blog was brought to you by Nicholas Rossoletti. You can follow Nicholas on Twitter @NRoss56
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