Brandon Philips (2B-Cinn) With a major decline in his speed production over the past few years to only 5 SB's last year, Brandon Philip's value has been refocused on his run production. He knocked in 103 runs last year which was the first time in his career that he had exceeded the century mark. His HR production has remained remarkably steady over the past three years as he hit 18 each year. In 2014, this production has not happened. He is sitting on 1 HR and has only 4 RBI's in 95 AB's. The culprit this year for Philips has been a major decrease in his plate discipline with a 3.2% walk rate and a 24.2% K rate which are both way under his career norms of 5.7% and 14.3% respectively. And it is not like he has been unlucky, his BABIP is .343 which based on his career .292 rate is too high. An IFFB% of 25.9% is just eviscerating his ability to produce at the plate. This rate has been on a steady increase over the last few seasons, but never sat above 9.2% before this year. With a contact rate now below league average, and a Swinging Strike Rate at an all time career high, at 33 years old we may be just witnessing a significant decline in his game.
Danny Espinosa (2B- Wash) Left for dead and relegated to the minors last year, Danny Espinosa has been a revelation in the early going. In 2013 he hit an abysmal .158 which could be attributed to a .202 BABIP but with a 2.4% walk rate and a 28.1% K rate he earned those numbers. After a 0-5 day, his BA sits at a lofty (for him) .293 which is totally unexpected for a career .234 hitter. Never a very disciplined hitter, he has increased his walk rate to 5.8% which is a dramatic improvement but still below an 8% rate for an average productive hitter in MLB. His K% is down to 21.7% which is well below his 27% career average. His ISO of .206 is high for him but perhaps sustainable since he did actually have a higher rate in his first season but off a small sample of AB's. His .391 BABIP however is not. Since his contact rates are in line with his career averages, once his luck changes, he will see a major regression in BA. However, the improved plate discipline, should it continue, will keep him in the majors. He offers some pop and speed at the middle infield position. This will be of some value for fantasy owners as long as your team can sustain the BA he will likely produce.
Ian Desmond (SS- Wash) Ian Desmond has a very good year for the Nationals in 2013 hitting batting .280 and hitting 20 HR with 80 RBI's and 21 SB's. This was his 2nd strong year in a row which pointed to the development of his game coming into his prime years. The start for Desmond this year has not been what had been expected. He is batting .221 after today's 3-5 game. Ian is striking out at an alarming 32.3% rate which is well above his normal 21% for his career. Walks are down from last year but only marginally. His .250 BABIP speaks to a major positive adjustment when you factor in his speed and his career .332 BABIP average. But then again he does not have a stolen base this year. When he gets the ball in the air he does so with a 19.8% HR/FB rate which is a bit high for him, although he did approach that number in 2012. The alarming trend this year is that with a GB/FB rate of 1.57, he is just producing too many groundballs and his LD% at 9% is very low. Unfortunately, this GB /FB trend could continue as last year's 1.27 rate was way below his career average 1.50. The bad thing for Desmond and the Nationals is that, with the exception of the BABIP, this could just be one of those years where the negatives in his game predominate and his overall production declines.
Josh Beckett (SP-LAD) Josh Beckett faced a red hot Colorado squad tonight and continued his run of strong pitching in the rain at Dodger Stadium. He was able to go 8 innings tonight, limiting the Rockies to 2 ER on 4 hits while not walking anyone and striking out 6. I had been closely charting his velocity in the early going and I picked him up over a week ago. With his velocity on his 4 seam fastball rising to 93 mph this year, and his curveball at 75 mph and breaking like it did in his last highly productive season in 2011, we could be seeing the resurgence of his career in LA. Now before I get too carried away, he does have a high strand rate of 84%, his xFIP is more than a full point above his current 2.49 ERA, and he is pitching to a .176 BABIP. But with the LAD offense behind him, I think he could be a very surprising back end of the rotation pitcher in mixed leagues with the chance to even be a bit better. Go pick him up.
Matt Garza (SP-MIL) Matt Garza pitched a strong game tonight limiting the Cubs to 2 ER on 4 hits while striking out 7 in 7 innings of work to pick up his first win of the season after 3 bad starts in a row. He spent 2013 shuttling between teams and finally found a home with the Brewers. His K% dropped last year as it has this year as well, but his Velo of 93 mph remains steady and he continues to limit walks better than he ever has in his career. His swinging strike rate of nearly 10% is good, so it would not surprise to see his K rate improve as the year goes on. He will never be a great ERA guy, but his xFIP stands at .357 which is where it will probably settle at the end of the year. He is pitching in a hitter's park but his 0.82% HR/9 inning rate is actually a little better than he has been in his career and he is inducing GB's at just over 50% for the first time in his career. I think he is worth a pickup in any mixed league where an antsy owner has given up on him after 3 poor starts.
@stevietheshu
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