Nate Eovaldi (SP, Miami) Nate Eovaldi is an upside candidate because of his outstanding velocity. His FB Velo near 96 MPH is holding steady early in the season, his K/9 is up, and his walks are artificially low. He pitched a strong game today going 6 innings, giving up only 1 ER, on 7 hits, 2 walks, and 4 K's and did not factor in the decision. His season record stands at 0-2 with an ERA of 3.55 and a 1.14 WHIP with nearly a K/Inning pitched. Eovaldi's xFIP is pointing to an ERA more than a half a point lower. His LOB% in the early going is below his normal standards. However, with all these positives, the thing to watch on Eovaldi is his secondary pitches which historically have not been strong. The lack of action on his breaking pitches accounts for his below average Swinging Strike rate of 7.4%. His O-swing % is still low this year, which is an indication that the improvement on his secondary pitches has not happened yet. Until we see progress in this all important category, we cannot feel too confident that his good start is real. However, he is worth a speculative pickup in deeper mixed leagues.
Miguel Montero (C- Arizona) Montero's 2013 season was disappointing and some of that could be attributed to a back injury. His stellar back to back seasons in 2011 and 2012 were proof of his offensive upside. Now 30, we need to be mindful of the possibility that the wear and tear of the position could result in the beginning of a decline. He did catch more innings than any other catcher during that two year span. On the plus side, Miguel did hit his 2nd HR of the year in tonight's game. Otherwise, he has started this season slowly. His contact rates have declined over the past 3 seasons so his average will probably not reach the .280+ levels that he produced in his best two year run. Montero still has a good batted ball speed of 104 mph, so if he makes contact he can still drive the ball as we witnessed tonight. I expect that we will see a moderate rebound which will have him settle in at a .270 BA with 15 HR's and 60+ RBI's. These are productive numbers for a catcher but not in the top 10.
Tyson Ross (SP-San Diego) Tyson Ross was hitting the radar gun at 93 mph today which was a strong improvement over his early season velocity which saw a 3 mph loss versus last year. He needs to control his walks, which he did tonight, but failed to do in his previous starts. His line tonight was 8 innings of shutout ball, giving up only 4 hits, walking 1, and striking out 9. This brings his season record to 2-2 with a 2.23 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. In fact it was the improved control last year that made him a sleeper pick this year. Today's excellent start, increased velocity, and better control are hopefully the start of a trend in the right direction. He has strong upside and is still available in 25% of the CBS Sportsline Leagues. A big strong kid at 6-6, 230 lbs, he is definitely worth a pickup in mixed leagues and could be a gem pitching half his games in San Diego.
Chase Headley (3B-San Diego) Headley's 2013 season was a great disappointment to fantasy owners after his breakout season in 2012. Injuries to his thumb and knee were in large part responsible for his off year. Unfortunately, the injury trend has continued in the early season with biceps and knee problems. He is currently batting .174 and missed Thursdays and Friday's games due to the biceps problem. He is only 29 so I have to feel that if he can get healthy a rebound season is in order. To what extent he rebounds is the question. His breakout year in 2012 resulted from a very high HR/FB% of 21.4% which is twice his career average. So it is very unlikely that he will come anywhere near his 31 HR and 115 RBI output. He does not make great contact so his K% had been rising over the last few years. The problem this year, beside his injuries, has been less plate discipline and a 5.6% BB rate which is half his normal rate. If he can be more patient, better results will happen, but I'm confident in predicting that he won't reach the level that he did two years ago. A solid .270/.350/.440 triple slash line is what he may produce.
Jason Heyward (OF-ATL) At 24 years old and off a strong late performance last year we were all expecting Jason Heyward to take a big step forward this year. So far that step has been a stumble. Sitting atop the Braves lineup he and his co-conspirator BJ Upton have singlehandedly muted the scoring potential of the team. Heyward sat down for today's game as Simmons assumed his leadoff position. However, unlike Upton, I have strong hope for Heyward. While his K% is up this year, his contact rates are OK and the ball flies off of his bat. He is hitting almost 50% of his balls in the air so the HR's will start to come. He is also being hampered by an unusually bad .167 BABIP which for a player with his speed just won't continue. The Braves seem to have faith in him, as he remains their leadoff hitter with a putrid .271 OBP, so I will have faith too.
@stevietheshu
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