Tanner Roark (SP-WAS) - Roark took the early lead over Taylor Jordan to remain in the rotation once Doug Fister returns from a back injury. Thursday, Roark held the Mets to a pair of runs on six hits over six solid innings. His 5:3 K:BB was just so-so, but Roark did not allow a home run in picking up his first 2014 win. Roark was a huge surprise last year, posting a 1.51 ERA in 53.2 innings over five starts and nine relief appearances. Congratulations as well if you received some/most/all of his surprising seven victories. Roark has never been a huge strikeout guy (6.7 K/9 last year), but he did have a 1.8 BB/9 and he does a great job keeping the ball in the park, allowing just one home run in those 53.2 innings. He's a good bet to win out over Jordan.
Lucas Duda (1B-NYM) - Manager Terry Collins said in his press conference Thursday that he planned to pick a regular first baseman soon rather than rotating Duda, Ike Davis, and Josh Satin. Duda promptly went hitless in three at-bats (one walk) and is now 0-for-6 this year while Davis singled as a pinch-hitter to give him a 1-for-3 with a BB line this year. I figured when I heard the news that Davis would get the nod given his power potential, but it wasn't to be. Duda offers some power (24 AB/HR over the past two years), but little else. He has two big league stolen bases in 353 games and he's been so-so as a run producer. In OBP leagues, Duda is a sneaky play given his .341 career mark, but don't give up on Davis yet in NL-only leagues. Managers have a way of changing their minds, but Duda is also expected to start on Friday.
Brandon Belt (1B-SF) - Belt was one of my breakout picks this year and I own him in a lot of leagues, and he's paying early dividends. Belt was just 1-for-5 Thursday, but that one hit was his third home run of the year and he's batting a solid .333/.333/.833 in four games. Belt had a 21.6 AB/HR rate in the minors before putting up a 58.7 mark in his first full big league season (2012). He cut that nearly in half last year (29.9) and appears poised to hit 25+ in 2014. At least he no longer has to worry about being yanked out of the lineup every other day, though we'll probably still occasionally see Buster Posey resting his knees over at first base. It would not surprise me to see Belt be an All-Star this year despite the fierce competition at first base.
Todd Frazier (3B-CIN) - Frazier had a nice day at the plate Thursday, going 2-for-5 with a pair of homers and four RBI against Lance Lynn and the Cardinals. The big game raised Frazier's line to .455/.538/1.000 on the young season as he hits fifth in a top heavy Reds order. Frazier regressed a bit in his sophomore season a year ago, batting .234/.314/.407 for a drop of 108 points of OPS. A big culprit was a BABIP fall from .320 to .271, so if he can get that up to the league average of around .300, Frazier should be able to hit in the .260s. He saw slight improvements in his BB% (7.7% to 8.3%) and K% (22.2% to 20.8%), but the drop in Frazier's ISO from .225 to .173 is something we'd like to see reversed. At 28, he should be right in his prime, so something along the lines of .260-25-90 seems reasonable.
Marcell Ozuna (OF-MIA) - It appears Ozuna is putting a .164 spring behind him and justifying his organization's faith in his abilities. Ozuna was 2-for-4 with a run and RBI Thursday against the Rockies and is not batting a robust .467/.467/.733. He looks to be locked in as the team's leadoff man and center fielder a year after posting a .692 OPS in 291 PA's for the Marlins. Ozuna has exhibited 20-25 HR power in the minors along with 10-15 SB ability, but given that prior to his promotion last year, Ozuna had just 42 professional at-bats above A-ball, it may take time for his skillset to produce consistent numbers. So far so good though.
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