AL Player Blog- 4/30/2014

Alex Meyer- As we enter May, it becomes time to begin looking at potential call-ups that will affect the remaining schedule. The Super-Two deadline will approach in a little over a month, and teams will begin to look at prospects as more realistic solutions to inefficiencies in their roster. One of those players may be Twins pitching prospect Alex Meyer. With Kevin Correia currently pitching to a 4.00 K/9 and a 5.22 xFIP, which translates into a 7.33 ERA, it is entirely possible that the Twins may see Meyer as a better option to fill-in every fifth day. Meyer was limited in 2013 due to injury, but he impressed in his 70 IP at Double-A with 28.1% K Rate. In 2014, he was promoted to Triple-A despite the injury concerns where he has posted a 31.3% K Rate in 5 starts. Meyer is an interesting fantasy prospect because he has shown an ability to strike out batters at every level during his very short minor league career. Fantasy owners should be concerned though with his aggressive walk rates (9.7% in 2013, 9.8% in 2014) and his short sample size of minor league appearances. He has only logged 96.2 IP above A-Ball, and he has never cracked 100 IP in any single professional season to date. I really like Meyer's numbers, but I'm not sure he is worth stashing just yet unless you have several minor league holds in your league. Once called up, fantasy owners should expect decent strike out potential that could be undone by his command.

Dayan Viciedo- Outside of his teammate, Jose Abreu, Dayan Viciedo may be the hottest bat in baseball over the last two weeks. Viciedo was a waiver wire pick-up in just about all but the deepest mixed leagues, and he is now starting and carrying teams. My advice is to ride the streak and hang on. There may be some value here. Viciedo is showing some signs of growing up as a hitter. His BB Rate is up 4.7% from 2013 (5.1% in 2013, 9.7% in 2014) and his K Rate is down 6.6% (20.1% in 2013, 5.1% in 2014). His Swinging Strike Rate is down from 12.5% to 8.7% and he is making contact 4% more of the time he swings. With the constant disclaimer of small sample size, these are all excellent adjustments for him. Also of interest is the fact that he has a 42.9% Fly Ball Rate with only a 3.3% HR/FB. A regression towards the mean on his HR/FB rate would elevate his ISO and compensate for the one thing he hasn't provided this season: power. The biggest issue with his current numbers is a .406 BABIP, which is unsustainable over the course of the season. This invariably means that his .354 batting average is going to regress. The question will be: how much of a regression can be expected in these numbers? Viciedo is 25 years old and going into his third full campaign as a Major Leaguer. It is not out of the question to assume that growth would occur as he moves towards his prime. I like what I see here and am advising a buy or hold position for Viciedo. If we start to see that plate patience erode over the next ten days to two weeks, then you can broach selling him for more reliable assets.

Xander Bogaerts- Sometimes with young players, it is incredibly difficult to be patient. They come with the hype of being compared to the games greats and the unique attribute of never having disappointed a fantasy owner before. We can dream on youth, which makes it infinitely more attractive than a known commodity. Xander Bogaerts is one of the players that many have dreamed on. Bogaerts has actually been very good to start the 2014 season. He has increased an already very nice BB Rate from 10% in 2013 to 11.8% in 2014 while decreasing his K Rate by 5.4% (26% in 2013, 20.6% in 2014). The problem is this increased plate patience has not created any truly valuable fantasy skills. Bogaerts is hitting for very little discernible power with a .103 ISO and 1 HR over 102 Plate Appearances. Despite stealing 23 bases in 2013 and 37 bases in 2012 in the minor leagues, he has shown no inclination towards running at the big league level as he has only 2 SB between last year and this year. His batting average sits at an acceptable .287 currently. This is both an empty average as he does not produce a plethora of runs or RBI's and subject to regression based on a .369 BABIP. I like Bogaerts a lot especially in dynasty and keeper formats, but at 22 years old, he is not showing enough power or speed to convince me that 2014 will be a break-out campaign. In re-draft leagues, I'd try to find the Red Sox fan that is still dreaming on Bogaerts and see if you can fleece him for a player that will contribute in multiple categories.

Josh Donaldson- The A's third baseman is coming off a terrific season in 2013, and he has not missed a beat in 2014 despite peripherals that seemingly show regression in all but one key category. Donaldson is walking less (11.4% BB Rate in 2013, 8.9% BB Rate in 2014), striking out more (16.5% in 2013, 19.5% in 2014) and hitting for a lower batting average as his BABIP has regressed (.333 BABIP/.301 AVG in 2013, .268 BABIP/.277 AVG in 2014). His saving grace has been a .268 ISO, which has lead to 7 HR and .545 Slugging %. The hope for Donaldson owners is that he can continue to hit for this type of power, which would be worth the sacrifice in batting average. His Fly Ball rate of 43.2% is up from his 2013 rate, but it is not so aggressive as to believe that it can't stay close to this rate (although his 2012 and 2013 sample size seem to indicate a regression is coming). I'd say the big issue will be the 18.4% HR/FB rate. This is up 4.2% from last year. Again, this isn't so large as to be eye grabbing, but given his home ball park, I wonder if this can be sustained over the course of the season. Donaldson is probably a hold in all formats, but there is a chance that April is his best month of the season as he may not see 7 HR in a month again during 2014. If you have other options at third base, you may want to test his market and see what is available.

Manny Machado- Baltimore announced it would activate Manny Machado on Tuesday only to have the game postponed due to rain. Machado injured his knee with 6 games left in the 2013 season and has missed the first month of the season rehabbing that injury. Machado is a player that is generally a TON more valuable in real life than in fantasy due to his elite defensive skills. For fantasy purposes, Machado tends towards a fairly empty batting average. He does not walk at a very good rate with a 4.1% BB Rate in 2013, he does not hit for any real power with a .148 ISO and he only managed 6 SB in 710 Plate Appearances last season. In dynasty and keeper formats, the hope is that he will develop power as he ages (he won't even turn 24 until July 6). In re-draft leagues, I would only rely on him at third base if you have a fairly large hole. He should be able to keep his batting average in the .270-.280 region, but there will not be a lot that comes with that batting average.

Today's AL Player Blog is brought to you by Nicholas Rossoletti. You can follow Nicholas Rossoletti on Twitter @NRoss56

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