Vidal Nuno- The Yankees announced on Tuesday afternoon that Vidal Nuno would remain in their starting rotation for the time being to replace the injured Ivan Nova. With Nova almost assuredly going under the knife to repair his torn UCL per Tuesday's reports, Nuno will get first crack at remaining in the rotation for the rest of 2014. Nuno is the definition of a modern day "crafty lefty". His velocity rarely approaches 90 MPH, and he is frequently sitting in the high-80's with his fastball. Nuno has shown an ability to generate swings and misses at the minor league levels as his K Rates were consistently in the low to mid-20% range. While his fastball velocity isn't much to write home about, Nuno will use his breaking stuff with as much if not more frequency than his fastball. He has thrown his slider and curve a combined 51.3% of the time while throwing his fastball (both 4-seam and 2-seam) only 42.5% of the time this season so velocity may not be as big of an issue for this type of pitcher. To date, he is managing a very nice 9.4% swinging strike rate, but obviously, we have the smallest of sample sizes of only 9.1 IP in 2014. I'd say Nuno has AL-only league value as a rotatable option although I wouldn't put too much stock in him until we see a larger sample. We will have to see if his breaking pitches continue to generate swings and misses before recommending him in mixed league formats. Certainly, he is a player to watch moving forward based on his newly found opportunity.
Michael Brantley- Michael Brantley has consistently tantalized fantasy owners with his very interesting profile. Brantley has amassed 10 or more steals in each of his previous 4 seasons in the big leagues. He has managed to hit for over .280 in each of the last two seasons, and those averages seem well supported by his three year average on BABIP and his traditionally terrific K Rates. All of this has been undermined by Brantley's inability to hit for hit for any real power during his career. With less than a month gone by in 2014, the Indians' outfielder has already launched 4 home runs and is slugging .507 leading to a .225 ISO early on. While it is encouraging to see Brantley begin to come into his own in that magic age 27 season, a quick glance at his stats does give us cause for concern. Amongst his biggest issues, Brantley has a tendency towards extreme ground ball rates (47% or higher since 2010) and below average fly ball rates (below 30% in 2012 and 2013). You would figure that a power surge would indicate a change in those rates, but it has been the opposite in 2014. Brantley's ground ball rate has surged to 53.8% while his fly ball rate is a three year low of 27.7%. His power is almost entirely tied to an unrealistically high 22.2% HR/FB rate. Basically, there isn't really anything in his small sample size batted ball data to indicate that his newly found power is sustainable. If you can get a decent offer for him based on his early success, I would suggest you examine it closely.
Brian Dozier- It's tough not to fall in love with what Brian Dozier provides to a fantasy team. His batting average isn't going to win you that category, but his power/speed combination is truly special for a middle infielder. Dozier finished 2013 as one of the more interesting middle infield options having compiled 18 home runs and 14 steals. Through only 18 games in 2014, he has already totaled 5 home runs and 5 steals while showing increased plate patience (14.8% BB Rate). While his average will rebound somewhat from his current .219, there is little reason to believe he is more than the .230-.245 hitter we have seen in 2012 and 2013. His value comes in the form of being an aggressive fly ball hitter (41.3% in 2013, 50% in the small sample of 2014) and working his way on base to provide for stolen base opportunities. There is little doubt that his 19.2% HR/FB rate will regress, but I believe a 20/20 season for Dozier is absolutely a strong possibility even with a regression on that number. He is entering his power prime, showing increased speed statistics and he plays one of the more shallow positions in the game. Right now, Dozier looks like a fantastic value play that should provide excellent return on investment for his owners.
Mike Zunino- Mike Zunino has been a pleasant surprise to those fantasy owners, like myself, that employ the strategy to wait on catchers until later in the draft. Sadly, that pleasant surprise seems unlikely to continue based on his current statistics. Last year, Zunino showed reasonable plate patience with his 8.3% BB Rate but failed to present any other positive options as he could not hit for power or average. To date, Zunino has managed to hit for both power and average, but it is hard to predict that will continue. The former Gators star has managed only a 1.7% BB Rate while amassing a 29.3% K Rate early on. Part of this is explained by an atrocious 19.5% Swinging Strike Rate. His average is being artificially inflated by a .351 BABIP, which is unrealistically high. The only truly positive news for Zunino is that his power seems at least somewhat defendable early on. His 40% fly ball rate is close enough to his larger sample number to be real, and his 18.8% HR/FB rate, while high, is not so ridiculously disproportionate as to jump out and scream large scale regression. For those hoping that .281 average is within reason, please let that hope die. We have a chance at a cheap 12-16 home runs from Zunino this season, but his average will almost assuredly plummet. How far is the only question.
Melky Cabrera- The question that Melky Cabrera's early season success raises is a simple one: Can Melky's BABIP stay high enough to make him a monster in the average category that he was in 2012? It seems really unlikely, but Melky does have some history of above normal BABIP (.332 in 2011, .379 in 2012). With a historical ground ball rate somewhere between 46-52% since 2006, it is hard to buy into his power surge being anything more than a short sample outlier. This is especially true given that his fly ball rate is a paltry 23% in the early going while his HR/FB rate is a ridiculously high 23.5%. Given decreasing speed and always questionable power, Melky's value is almost entirely tied to his ability to hit for average allowing his owner's to take risks on other boom/bust power and speed options. In my mind, we are probably looking at a combination of his 2011 and 2012 seasons. A BABIP falling in the .320-.330 region seems realistic while his ISO will almost invariably fall to somewhere between .140 and .160. This is a very valuable piece, but if someone offers to overpay for him, you may wish to consider their offer. It is doubtful that Cabrera's value will be has high again this season as it is right now.
Today's AL Player Blog is brought to you by Nicholas Rossoletti. You can follow Nicholas on Twitter @NRoss56
This is just a small sample our our daily analysis, join our member area for more premium content: http://www.fantistics.com/join/join.php3
